Global climate change is expected to both increase average temperatures as well as temperature variability. Increased average temperatures have led to earlier breeding in many spring‐breeding organisms. However, individuals breeding earlier will also face increased temperature fluctuations, including exposure to potentially harmful cold‐temperature regimes during early developmental stages. Using a model spring‐breeding amphibian, we investigated how embryonic exposure to different cold‐temperature regimes (control, cold‐pulse, and cold‐press) affected (a) compensatory larval development and growth, (b) larval susceptibility to a common contaminant, and (c) larval susceptibility to parasites. We found: (a) no evidence of compensatory development or growth, (b) larvae exposed to the cold‐press treatment were more susceptible to NaCl at 4‐days post‐hatching but recovered by 17‐days post‐hatching, and (c) larvae exposed to both cold treatments were less susceptible to parasites. These results demonstrate that variation in cold‐temperature regimes can lead to unique direct and indirect effects on larval growth, development, and response to stressors. This underscores the importance of considering cold‐temperature variability and not just increased average temperatures when examining the impacts of climate disruption.
The combined impacts of climate change and ecological degradation are expected to worsen inequality within society. These dynamics are exemplified by increases in flood risk globally. In general, low‐income and socially vulnerable populations disproportionately bear the cost of flood damages. Climate change is expected to increase the number of people exposed to fluvial flood risk and cause greater property damages. Floodplain restoration has the potential to mitigate these impacts, but the distribution of future risks among different types of property owners under these altered conditions is often unknown. Here, we develop a simple probabilistic approach for estimating flood risk to property owners under floodplain restoration and climate change scenarios for a range of flood recurrence intervals. We apply this approach in the Vermont, USA portion of the Lake Champlain Basin. Over a 100‐year time horizon, we estimate that the value of property damages caused by flood inundation is approximately $2.13 billion under the baseline scenario. Climate change is expected to increase damages to $5.29 billion, a 148% increase; however, floodplain restoration has the potential to reduce these impacts by approximately 20%. For all scenarios, a larger proportion of lower‐value properties, specifically mobile homes, face greater flood risk compared to higher‐value properties. Climate change is expected to cost higher‐value properties and commercial properties more than other types of properties, but these same groups are also expected to benefit most from floodplain restoration. In general, these results raise concern that those least able to prepare for and recover from flood damages are also the people who face the greatest threats. In response, public policy interventions must consider not only where flood risk is most severe, but also the vulnerability of people exposed to such risk.
Read the free
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10369073
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- People and Nature
- Volume:
- 4
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 2575-8314
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 415-427
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
<ext-link href='http://Abstract'>Abstract</ext-link> -
more » « less
Abstract Smallholder farmers are some of the poorest and most food insecure people on Earth. Their high nutritional and economic reliance on home‐grown produce makes them particularly vulnerable to environmental stressors such as pollinator loss or climate change which threaten agricultural productivity. Improving smallholder agriculture in a way that is environmentally sustainable and resilient to climate change is a key challenge of the 21st century.
Ecological intensification, whereby ecosystem services are managed to increase agricultural productivity, is a promising solution for smallholders. However, smallholder farms are complex socio‐ecological systems with a range of social, ecological and environmental factors interacting to influence ecosystem service provisioning. To truly understand the functioning of a smallholder farm and identify the most effective management options to support household food and nutrition security, a holistic, systems‐based understanding is required.
In this paper, we propose a network approach to understand, visualise and model the complex interactions occurring among wild species, crops and people on smallholder farms. Specifically, we demonstrate how networks may be used to (a) identify wild species with a key role in supporting, delivering or increasing the resilience of an ecosystem service; (b) quantify the value of an ecosystem service in a way that is relevant to the food and nutrition security of smallholders; and (c) understand the social interactions that influence the management of shared ecosystem services.
Using a case study based on data from rural Nepal, we demonstrate how this framework can be used to connect wild plants, pollinators and crops to key nutrients consumed by humans. This allows us to quantify the nutritional value of an ecosystem service and identify the wild plants and pollinators involved in its provision, as well as providing a framework to predict the effects of environmental change on human nutrition.
Our framework identifies mechanistic links between ecosystem services and the nutrients consumed by smallholder farmers and highlights social factors that may influence the management of these services. Applying this framework to smallholder farms in a range of socio‐ecological contexts may provide new, sustainable and equitable solutions to smallholder food and nutrition security.
A free
Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. -
null (Ed.)Flooding during extreme weather events damages critical infrastructure, property, and threatens lives. Hurricane María devastated Puerto Rico (PR) on 20 September 2017. Sixty-four deaths were directly attributable to the flooding. This paper describes the development of a hydrologic model using the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), capable of simulating flood depth and extent for the Añasco coastal flood plain in Western PR. The purpose of the study was to develop a numerical model to simulate flooding from extreme weather events and to evaluate the impacts on critical infrastructure and communities; Hurricane María is used as a case study. GSSHA was calibrated for Irma, a Category 3 hurricane, which struck the northeastern corner of the island on 7 September 2017, two weeks before Hurricane María. The upper Añasco watershed was calibrated using United States Geological Survey (USGS) stream discharge data. The model was validated using a storm of similar magnitude on 11–13 December 2007. Owing to the damage sustained by PR’s WSR-88D weather radar during Hurricane María, rainfall was estimated in this study using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. Flooding in the coastal floodplain during Hurricane María was simulated using three methods: (1) Use of observed discharge hydrograph from the upper watershed as an inflow boundary condition for the coastal floodplain area, along with the WRF rainfall in the coastal flood plain; (2) Use of WRF rainfall to simulate runoff in the upper watershed and coastal flood plain; and (3) Similar to approach (2), except the use of bias-corrected WRF rainfall. Flooding results were compared with forty-two values of flood depth obtained during face-to-face interviews with residents of the affected communities. Impacts on critical infrastructure (water, electric, and public schools) were evaluated, assuming any structure exposed to 20 cm or more of flooding would sustain damage. Calibration equations were also used to improve flood depth estimates. Our model included the influence of storm surge, which we found to have a minimal effect on flood depths within the study area. Water infrastructure was more severely impacted by flooding than electrical infrastructure. From these findings, we conclude that the model developed in this study can be used with sufficient accuracy to identify infrastructure affected by future flooding events.more » « less
-
more » « less
Abstract Mixotrophs are ubiquitous and integral to microbial food webs, but their impacts on the dynamics and functioning of broader ecosystems are largely unresolved.
Here, we show that mixotrophy produces a unique type of food web module that exhibits unusual ecological dynamics, with surprising consequences for carbon flux under warming. We develop a generalizable model of a mixotrophic food web module that incorporates dynamic switching between phototrophy and phagotrophy to assess ecological dynamics and total system CO2flux.
We find that warming switches mixotrophic systems between alternative stable carbon states—including a phototrophy‐dominant carbon sink state, a phagotrophy‐dominant carbon source state and cycling between these two. Moreover, warming always shifts this mixotrophic system from a carbon sink state to a carbon source state, but a coordinated increase in nutrients can erase early warning signals of this transition and expand hysteresis.
This suggests that mixotrophs can generate critical carbon tipping points under warming that will be more abrupt and less reversible when combined with increased nutrient levels, having widespread implications for ecosystem functioning in the face of rapid global change.
Read the free
Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. -
more » « less
Abstract Species interactions are expected to change in myriad ways as the frequency and magnitude of extreme temperature events increase with anthropogenic climate change.
The relationships between endosymbionts, parasites and their hosts are particularly sensitive to thermal stress, which can have cascading effects on other trophic levels.
We investigate the interactive effects of heat stress and parasitism on a terrestrial tritrophic system consisting of two host plants (one common, high‐quality plant and one novel, low‐quality plant), a caterpillar herbivore and a specialist parasitoid wasp.
We used a fully factorial experiment to determine the bottom‐up effects of the novel host plant on both the caterpillars' life history traits and the wasps' survival, and the top‐down effects of parasitism and heat shock on caterpillar developmental outcomes and herbivory levels.
Host plant identity interacted with thermal stress to affect wasp success, with wasps performing better on the low‐quality host plant under constant temperatures but worse under heat‐shock conditions.
Surprisingly, caterpillars consumed less leaf material from the low‐quality host plant to reach the same final mass across developmental outcomes.
In parasitized caterpillars, heat shock reduced parasitoid survival and increased both caterpillar final mass and development time on both host plants.
These findings highlight the importance of studying community‐level responses to climate change from a holistic and integrative perspective and provide insight into potential substantial interactions between thermal stress and diet quality in plant–insect systems.
Read the free
Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.
