Human activity along our coasts and throughout our oceans has been increasing over the past few decades. In 2017, the output of the global Blue Economy was estimated at €1.3 trillion, and that value is expected to more than double by 2030. Offshore wind and tourism are major sectors in the blue economy, and they have the potential to function jointly through multi-use, thereby creating added benefits for both sectors as well as society overall. To contribute to the assessment of multi-use’s viability, this project has evaluated existing areas where offshore wind and tourism are successfully infused together and globally identified additional areas where they are likely to work together. Taking advantage of multi-use is becoming increasingly beneficial. By having industries function jointly in the same space, instead of parceling out ocean space by industry, the blue economy can remain sustainable and competitive. Early identification of these areas viable for offshore wind and tourism multi-use is important not only to businesses and coastal communities, but to the sustainable future of our oceans. The areas that are likely to benefit the most from this form of multi-use can be identified using GIS to analyze ocean space. First, datasets including ship density, wind speed, light at night, and tourism arrivals were used to understand both environmental and social factors indicative of supporting this form of multi-use. Then, these factors were spatially quantified and aggregated together in ArcGIS to identify locations best suited to combining offshore wind and tourism. Results indicate a higher potential for multi-use success in higher populated and more developed regions. Low population limits the potential for this type of multi-use in many areas, but a smaller-scale, regional analysis would provide more detailed insight into specific regions.
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Complex Effects of Telecouplings on Forest Dynamics: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach
Rural areas are increasingly subject to the effects of telecouplings (socioeconomic and environmental interactions over distances) whereby their human and natural dynamics are linked to socioeconomic and environmental drivers operating far away, such as the growing demand for labor and ecosystem services in cities. Although there have been many studies evaluating the effects of telecouplings, telecouplings in those studies were often investigated separately, and how telecouplings may interact and affect dynamics of rural coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) jointly was rarely evaluated. In this study, we developed an agent-based model and simulated the impacts of two globally common telecouplings, nature-based tourism and labor migration, on forest dynamics of a rural CHANS, China’s Wolong Nature Reserve (Wolong). Nature-based tourism and labor migration can facilitate forest recovery, and the predicted forest areas in Wolong in 2030 would be reduced by 26.2 km2(6.8%) and 23.9 km2(6.2%), respectively, without their effects. However, tourism development can significantly reduce the probability of local households to have member(s) outmigrate to work in cities and decrease the positive impact of labor migration on forest recovery. Our simulations show that the interaction between tourism and labor migration can reduce the potential forest recovery by 3.5 km2(5.0%) in 2030. Our study highlights that interactions among different telecouplings can generate significant impacts on socioeconomic and environmental outcomes and should be jointly considered in the design, management, and evaluation of telecouplings for achieving sustainable development goals.
Rural areas are increasingly connected with other places through telecouplings, such as tourism and labor migration. However, telecouplings’ effects were often evaluated separately, and their interaction remains poorly understood. In this study, we evaluated how two globally common telecouplings, tourism and labor migration, jointly affect forest dynamics in a demonstration site using an agent-based modeling approach. Although both tourism and labor migration can benefit forest conservation, we found that their interaction generates an antagonistic effect: households’ involvement in tourism activities reduces their probability to have members outmigrate to work in cities and significantly diminishes the beneficial impact of labor migration on forest recovery. Our study highlights the importance of considering interaction among telecouplings in the management of telecouplings for sustainability.
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10369260
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth Interactions
- Volume:
- 26
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1087-3562
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 15-27
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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