Abstract We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of $$10^{5}, 10^{6}, 10^{7}\mathrm {\ Mpc}^3$$ 10 5 , 10 6 , 10 7 Mpc 3 for binary neutron star, neutron star–black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of $$1^{+12}_{-1}$$ 1 - 1 + 12 ( $$10^{+52}_{-10}$$ 10 - 10 + 52 ) for binary neutron star mergers, of $$0^{+19}_{-0}$$ 0 - 0 + 19 ( $$1^{+91}_{-1}$$ 1 - 1 + 91 ) for neutron star–black hole mergers, and $$17^{+22}_{-11}$$ 17 - 11 + 22 ( $$79^{+89}_{-44}$$ 79 - 44 + 89 ) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.
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Rapid source classification and distance estimation for compact binary mergers with PyCBC live
During the third observing run (O3) of the advanced LIGO and advanced virgo detectors, dozens of candidate gravitational-wave (GW) events have been catalogued. A challenge of this observing run has been the rapid identification and public dissemination of compact binary coalescence (CBC) signals, a task carried out by low-latency searches such as PyCBC Live. During the later part of O3, we developed a method of classifying CBC sources via their probabilities of containing neutron star or black hole components within PyCBC Live in order to facilitate immediate follow-up observations by electromagnetic and neutrino observatories. This fast classification uses the chirp mass recovered by the search as input given the difficulty of measuring the mass ratio with high accuracy for lower mass binaries. We also use a distance estimate derived from the search output to correct for the bias in chirp mass due to the cosmological redshift. We present results for simulated signals, and for confirmed candidate events identified in low latency over O3.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10369785
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
- Volume:
- 515
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 0035-8711
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 5718-5729
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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