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Title: Exposure Assessment Techniques Applied to the Highly Censored Deepwater Horizon Gulf Oil Spill Personal Measurements
Abstract

The GuLF Long-term Follow-up Study (GuLF STUDY) is investigating potential adverse health effects of workers involved in the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill response and cleanup (OSRC). Over 93% of the 160 000 personal air measurements taken on OSRC workers were below the limit of detection (LOD), as reported by the analytic labs. At this high level of censoring, our ability to develop exposure estimates was limited. The primary objective here was to reduce the number of measurements below the labs’ reported LODs to reflect the analytic methods’ true LODs, thereby facilitating the use of a relatively unbiased and precise Bayesian method to develop exposure estimates for study exposure groups (EGs). The estimates informed a job-exposure matrix to characterize exposure of study participants. A second objective was to develop descriptive statistics for relevant EGs that did not meet the Bayesian criteria of sample size ≥5 and censoring ≤80% to achieve the aforementioned level of bias and precision. One of the analytic labs recalculated the measurements using the analytic method’s LOD; the second lab provided raw analytical data, allowing us to recalculate the data values that fell between the originally reported LOD and the analytical method’s LOD. We developed rules for developing Bayesian estimates for EGs with >80% censoring. The remaining EGs were 100% censored. An order-based statistical method (OBSM) was developed to estimate exposures that considered the number of measurements, geometric standard deviation, and average LOD of the censored samples for N ≥ 20. For N < 20, substitution of ½ of the LOD was assigned. Recalculation of the measurements lowered overall censoring from 93.2 to 60.5% and of the THC measurements, from 83.1 to 11.2%. A total of 71% of the EGs met the ≤15% relative bias and <65% imprecision goal. Another 15% had censoring >80% but enough non-censored measurements to apply Bayesian methods. We used the OBSM for 3% of the estimates and the simple substitution method for 11%. The methods presented here substantially reduced the degree of censoring in the dataset and increased the number of EGs meeting our Bayesian method’s desired performance goal. The OBSM allowed for a systematic and consistent approach impacting only the lowest of the exposure estimates. This approach should be considered when dealing with highly censored datasets.

 
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NSF-PAR ID:
10370166
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Oxford University Press
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Annals of Work Exposures and Health
Volume:
66
Issue:
Supplement_1
ISSN:
2398-7308
Page Range / eLocation ID:
p. i56-i70
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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  1. null (Ed.)
    Abstract Background The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill involved thousands of workers and volunteers to mitigate the oil release and clean-up after the spill. Health concerns for these participants led to the initiation of a prospective epidemiological study (GuLF STUDY) to investigate potential adverse health outcomes associated with the oil spill response and clean-up (OSRC). Characterizing the chemical exposures of the OSRC workers was an essential component of the study. Workers on the four oil rig vessels mitigating the spill and located within a 1852 m (1 nautical mile) radius of the damaged wellhead [the Discoverer Enterprise (Enterprise), the Development Driller II (DDII), the Development Driller III (DDIII), and the Helix Q4000] had some of the greatest potential for chemical exposures. Objectives The aim of this paper is to characterize potential personal chemical exposures via the inhalation route for workers on those four rig vessels. Specifically, we presented our methodology and descriptive statistics of exposure estimates for total hydrocarbons (THCs), benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, and n-hexane (BTEX-H) for various job groups to develop exposure groups for the GuLF STUDY cohort. Methods Using descriptive information associated with the measurements taken on various jobs on these rig vessels and with job titles from study participant responses to the study questionnaire, job groups [unique job/rig/time period (TP) combinations] were developed to describe groups of workers with the same or closely related job titles. A total of 500 job groups were considered for estimation using the available 8139 personal measurements. We used a univariate Bayesian model to analyze the THC measurements and a bivariate Bayesian regression framework to jointly model the measurements of THC and each of the BTEX-H chemicals separately, both models taking into account the many measurements that were below the analytic limit of detection. Results Highest THC exposures occurred in TP1a and TP1b, which was before the well was mechanically capped. The posterior medians of the arithmetic mean (AM) ranged from 0.11 ppm (‘Inside/Other’, TP1b, DDII; and ‘Driller’, TP3, DDII) to 14.67 ppm (‘Methanol Operations’, TP1b, Enterprise). There were statistical differences between the THC AMs by broad job groups, rigs, and time periods. The AMs for BTEX-H were generally about two to three orders of magnitude lower than the THC AMs, with benzene and ethylbenzene measurements being highly censored. Conclusions Our results add new insights to the limited literature on exposures associated with oil spill responses and support the current epidemiologic investigation of potential adverse health effects of the oil spill. 
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  2. Abstract Objectives

    Our objectives were to (i) determine correlations between measurements of THC and of BTEX-H, (ii) apply these linear relationships to predict BTEX-H from measured THC, (iii) use these correlations as informative priors in Bayesian analyses to estimate exposures.

    Methods

    We used a Bayesian left-censored bivariate framework for all 3 objectives. First, we modeled the relationships (i.e. correlations) between THC and each BTEX-H chemical for various overarching groups of measurements using linear regression to determine if correlations derived from linear relationships differed by various exposure determinants. We then used the same linear regression relationships to predict (or impute) BTEX-H measurements from THC when only THC measurements were available. Finally, we used the same linear relationships as priors for the final exposure models that used real and predicted data to develop exposure estimate statistics for each individual exposure group.

    Results

    Correlations between measurements of THC and each of the BTEX-H chemicals (n = 120 for each of BTEX, 36 for n-hexane) differed substantially by area of the Gulf of Mexico and by time period that reflected different oil-spill related exposure opportunities. The correlations generally exceeded 0.5. Use of regression relationships to impute missing data resulted in the addition of >23 000 n-hexane and 541 observations for each of BTEX. The relationships were then used as priors for the calculation of exposure statistics while accounting for censored measurement data.

    Conclusions

    Taking advantage of observed relationships between THC and BTEX-H allowed us to develop robust exposure estimates where a large amount of data were missing, strengthening our exposure estimation process for the epidemiologic study.

     
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We also used the Tukey–Kramer method to compare the frequency distributions of TDP concentrations in all of the soil leachate samples with concentrations in lakes, streams, and groundwater wells, since each sample category had very different numbers of measurements. Individual spreadsheets in “data table_leaching_dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen.xls” 1.    annual precip_drainage 2.    biomass_corn, perennial grasses 3.    biomass_poplar 4.    annual N leaching _vol-wtd conc 5.    Summary_N leached 6.    annual DOC leachin_vol-wtd conc 7.    growing season length 8.    correlation_nh4 VS no3 9.    correlations_don VS no3_doc VS don Each spreadsheet is described below along with an explanation of variates. Note that ‘nan’ indicate data are missing or not available. First row indicates header; second row indicates units 1. Spreadsheet: annual precip_drainage Description: Precipitation measured from nearby Kellogg Biological Station (KBS) Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Weather station, over 2009-2016 study period. Data shown in Figure 1; original data source for precipitation (https://lter.kbs.msu.edu/datatables/7). Drainage estimated from SALUS crop model. Note that drainage is percolation out of the root zone (0-125 cm). Annual precipitation and drainage values shown here are calculated for growing and non-growing crop periods. Variate    Description year    year of the observation crop    “corn” “switchgrass” “miscanthus” “nativegrass” “restored prairie” “poplar” precip_G    precipitation during growing period (milliMeter) precip_NG    precipitation during non-growing period (milliMeter) drainage_G    drainage during growing period (milliMeter) drainage_NG    drainage during non-growing period (milliMeter)      2. Spreadsheet: biomass_corn, perennial grasses Description: Maximum aboveground biomass measurements from corn, switchgrass, miscanthus, native grass and restored prairie plots in Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (GLBRC) Biomass Cropping System Experiment (BCSE) during 2009-2015. Data shown in Figure 2.   Variate    Description year    year of the observation date    day of the observation (mm/dd/yyyy) crop    “corn” “switchgrass” “miscanthus” “nativegrass” “restored prairie” “poplar” replicate    each crop has four replicated plots, R1, R2, R3 and R4 station    stations (S1, S2 and S3) of samplings within the plot. For more details, refer to link (https://data.sustainability.glbrc.org/protocols/156) species    plant species that are rooted within the quadrat during the time of maximum biomass harvest. See protocol for more information, refer to link (http://lter.kbs.msu.edu/datatables/36) For maize biomass, grain and whole biomass reported in the paper (weed biomass or surface litter are excluded). Surface litter biomass not included in any crops; weed biomass not included in switchgrass and miscanthus, but included in grass mixture and prairie. fraction    Fraction of biomass biomass_plot    biomass per plot on dry-weight basis (Grams_Per_SquareMeter) biomass_ha    biomass (megaGrams_Per_Hectare) by multiplying column biomass per plot with 0.01 3. Spreadsheet: biomass_poplar Description: Maximum aboveground biomass measurements from poplar plots in Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (GLBRC) Biomass Cropping System Experiment (BCSE) during 2009-2015. Data shown in Figure 2. Note that poplar biomass was estimated from crop growth curves until the poplar was harvested in the winter of 2013-14. Variate    Description year    year of the observation method    methods of poplar biomass sampling date    day of the observation (mm/dd/yyyy) replicate    each crop has four replicated plots, R1, R2, R3 and R4 diameter_at_ground    poplar diameter (milliMeter) at the ground diameter_at_15cm    poplar diameter (milliMeter) at 15 cm height biomass_tree    biomass per plot (Grams_Per_Tree) biomass_ha    biomass (megaGrams_Per_Hectare) by multiplying biomass per tree with 0.01 4. Spreadsheet: annual N leaching_vol-wtd conc Description: Annual leaching rate (kiloGrams_N_Per_Hectare) and volume-weighted mean N concentrations (milliGrams_N_Per_Liter) of nitrate (no3) and dissolved organic nitrogen (don) in the leachate samples collected from corn, switchgrass, miscanthus, native grass, restored prairie and poplar plots in Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (GLBRC) Biomass Cropping System Experiment (BCSE) during 2009-2016. Data for nitrogen leached and volume-wtd mean N concentration shown in Figure 3a and Figure 3b, respectively. Note that ammonium (nh4) concentration were much lower and often undetectable (<0.07 milliGrams_N_Per_Liter). Also note that in 2009 and 2010 crop-years, data from some replicates are missing.    Variate    Description crop    “corn” “switchgrass” “miscanthus” “nativegrass” “restored prairie” “poplar” crop-year    year of the observation replicate    each crop has four replicated plots, R1, R2, R3 and R4 no3 leached    annual leaching rates of nitrate (kiloGrams_N_Per_Hectare) don leached    annual leaching rates of don (kiloGrams_N_Per_Hectare) vol-wtd no3 conc.    Volume-weighted mean no3 concentration (milliGrams_N_Per_Liter) vol-wtd don conc.    Volume-weighted mean don concentration (milliGrams_N_Per_Liter) 5. Spreadsheet: summary_N leached Description: Summary of total amount and forms of N leached (kiloGrams_N_Per_Hectare) and the percent of applied N lost to leaching over the seven years for corn, switchgrass, miscanthus, native grass, restored prairie and poplar plots in Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (GLBRC) Biomass Cropping System Experiment (BCSE) during 2009-2016. Data for nitrogen amount leached shown in Figure 4a and percent of applied N lost shown in Figure 4b. Note the fraction of unleached N includes in harvest, accumulation in root biomass, soil organic matter or gaseous N emissions were not measured in the study. Variate    Description crop    “corn” “switchgrass” “miscanthus” “nativegrass” “restored prairie” “poplar” no3 leached    annual leaching rates of nitrate (kiloGrams_N_Per_Hectare) don leached    annual leaching rates of don (kiloGrams_N_Per_Hectare) N unleached    N unleached (kiloGrams_N_Per_Hectare) in other sources are not studied % of N applied N lost to leaching    % of N applied N lost to leaching 6. Spreadsheet: annual DOC leachin_vol-wtd conc Description: Annual leaching rate (kiloGrams_Per_Hectare) and volume-weighted mean N concentrations (milliGrams_Per_Liter) of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the leachate samples collected from corn, switchgrass, miscanthus, native grass, restored prairie and poplar plots in Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (GLBRC) Biomass Cropping System Experiment (BCSE) during 2009-2016. Data for DOC leached and volume-wtd mean DOC concentration shown in Figure 5a and Figure 5b, respectively. Note that in 2009 and 2010 crop-years, water samples were not available for DOC measurements.     Variate    Description crop    “corn” “switchgrass” “miscanthus” “nativegrass” “restored prairie” “poplar” crop-year    year of the observation replicate    each crop has four replicated plots, R1, R2, R3 and R4 doc leached    annual leaching rates of nitrate (kiloGrams_Per_Hectare) vol-wtd doc conc.    volume-weighted mean doc concentration (milliGrams_Per_Liter) 7. Spreadsheet: growing season length Description: Growing season length (days) of corn, switchgrass, miscanthus, native grass, restored prairie and poplar plots in the Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (GLBRC) Biomass Cropping System Experiment (BCSE) during 2009-2015. Date shown in Figure S2. 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