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1. Imminent seismic velocity changes in earthquake cycle simulations

   Thakur, Prithvi ; Huang, Yihe ( October 2021 , AGU Fall Meeting 2021)

   null (Ed.)

   Earthquake prediction is the holy grail of seismology. Many previous studies have searched for robust precursory signals to inform us of imminent earthquakes, the most significant of which are seen in laboratory experiments as temporal changes in pressure and shear wave velocities during the seismic cycle. Similar changes are seen in natural faults and the surrounding structurally complex network of fractures with nested hierarchy of localized deformation, referred to as fault damage zone. However, little is known whether such temporal changes in material properties contains any precursory signals for imminent earthquakes.Conversely, the effect of precursory velocity changes on the seismic cycle is not well understood. By imposing shear wave velocity changes in fault damage zones, we investigate the effects of these precursors on multiple stages of the seismic cycle, including nucleation, coseismic, postseismic, and interseismic stages. We perform 2D fully dynamic earthquake cycle simulations with a fault-parallel damage zone for strike-slip fault systems with antiplane geometry. The fault is governed by rate-state-dependent friction laws, and the fault damage zone material is considered elastic. Our preliminary results show that the temporal onset of shear wave velocity drop causes a reduction in earthquake recurrence intervals over the seismic cycle. Furthermore, a dynamic earthquake rupture within the seismic cycle terminates much faster and abruptly in models with precursory velocity changes. We will also discuss how the precursory velocity changes affect the fault-slip behavior, including fast-slip, slow-slip, and aseismic creep, for different amplitudes of shear wave velocity changes at different compliance contrast of the fault damage zones. Our results highlight the importance of short and long-term monitoring of fault zone structures for better assessment of regional seismic hazard. 

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2. Effects of Low‐Velocity Fault Damage Zones on Long‐Term Earthquake Behaviors on Mature Strike‐Slip Faults

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB019587  

   Thakur, Prithvi ; Huang, Yihe ; Kaneko, Yoshihiro ( August 2020 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth)

   Mature strike‐slip faults are usually surrounded by a narrow zone of damaged rocks characterized by low seismic wave velocities. Observations of earthquakes along such faults indicate that seismicity is highly concentrated within this fault damage zone. However, the long‐term influence of the fault damage zone on complete earthquake cycles, that is, years to centuries, is not well understood. We simulate aseismic slip and dynamic earthquake rupture on a vertical strike‐slip fault surrounded by a fault damage zone for a thousand‐year timescale using fault zone material properties and geometries motivated by observations along major strike‐slip faults. The fault damage zone is approximated asan elastic layer with lower shear wave velocity than the surrounding rock. We find that dynamic wave reflections, whose characteristics are strongly dependent on the width and the rigidity contrast of the fault damage zone, have a prominent effect on the stressing history of the fault. The presence of elastic damage can partially explain the variability in the earthquake sizes and hypocenter locations along a single fault, which vary with fault damage zone depth, width and rigidity contrast from the host rock. The depth extent of the fault damage zone has a pronounced effect on the earthquake hypocenter locations, and shallower fault damage zones favor shallower hypocenters with a bimodal distribution of seismicity along depth. Our findings also suggest significant effects on the hypocenter distribution when the fault damage zone penetrates to the nucleation sites of earthquakes, likely being influenced by both lithological (material) and rheological (frictional) boundaries.

    

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3. How a strong low-angle normal fault formed: The Whipple detachment, southeastern California

   https://doi.org/10.1130/B35386.1  

   Axen, Gary J. ( December 2019 , GSA Bulletin)

   Abstract Many low-angle normal faults (dip ≤30°) accommodate tens of kilometers of crustal extension, but their mechanics remain contentious. Most models for low-angle normal fault slip assume vertical maximum principal stress σ1, leading many authors to conclude that low-angle normal faults are poorly oriented in the stress field (≥60° from σ1) and weak (low friction). In contrast, models for low-angle normal fault formation in isotropic rocks typically assume Coulomb failure and require inclined σ1 (no misorientation). Here, a data-based, mechanical-tectonic model is presented for formation of the Whipple detachment fault, southeastern California. The model honors local and regional geologic and tectonic history and laboratory friction measurements. The Whipple detachment fault formed progressively in the brittle-plastic transition by linking of “minidetachments,” which are small-scale analogs (meters to kilometers in length) in the upper footwall. Minidetachments followed mylonitic anisotropy along planes of maximum shear stress (45° from the maximum principal stress), not Coulomb fractures. They evolved from mylonitic flow to cataclasis and frictional slip at 300–400 °C and ∼9.5 km depth, while fluid pressure fell from lithostatic to hydrostatic levels. Minidetachment friction was presumably high (0.6–0.85), based upon formation of quartzofeldspathic cataclasite and pseudotachylyte. Similar mechanics are inferred for both the minidetachments and the Whipple detachment fault, driven by high differential stress (∼150–160 MPa). A Mohr construction is presented with the fault dip as the main free parameter. Using “Byerlee friction” (0.6–0.85) on the minidetachments and the Whipple detachment fault, and internal friction (1.0–1.7) on newly formed Reidel shears, the initial fault dips are calculated at 16°–26°, with σ1 plunging ∼61°–71° northeast. Linked minidetachments probably were not well aligned, and slip on the evolving Whipple detachment fault probably contributed to fault smoothing, by off-fault fracturing and cataclasis, and to formation of the fault core and fractured damage zone. Stress rotation may have occurred only within the mylonitic shear zone, but asymmetric tectonic forces applied to the brittle crust probably caused gradual rotation of σ1 above it as a result of: (1) the upward force applied to the base of marginal North America by buoyant asthenosphere upwelling into an opening slab-free window and/or (2) basal, top-to-the-NE shear traction due to midcrustal mylonitic flow during tectonic exhumation of the Orocopia Schist. The mechanical-tectonic model probably applies directly to low-angle normal faults of the lower Colorado River extensional corridor, and aspects of the model (e.g., significance of anisotropy, stress rotation) likely apply to formation of other strong low-angle normal faults. 

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4. How the changes of fault zone material properties influence earthquake nucleation and rupture

   Huang, Yihe ; Thakur, Prithvi ( October 2021 , AGU Fall Meeting 2021)

   null (Ed.)

   The fault damage zone is a well-known structure of localized deformation around faults. Its material properties evolve over earthquake cycles due to coseismic damage accumulation and interseismic healing. We will present fully dynamic earthquake cycle simulations to show how the styles of earthquake nucleation and rupture propagation change as fault zone material properties vary temporally. First, we will focus on the influence of fault zone structural maturity quantified by near-fault seismic wave velocities in simulations. The simulations show that immature fault zones promote small and moderate subsurface earthquakes with irregular recurrence intervals, whereas mature fault zones host pulse-like earthquake rupture that can propagate to the surface, extend throughout the seismogenic zone, and occur at regular intervals. The interseismic healing in immature fault zones plays a key role in allowing the development of aseismic slip episodes including slow-slip events and creep, which can propagate into the seismogenic zone, and thus limit the sizes of subsequent earthquakes by releasing fault stress. In the second part, we will discuss how the precursory changes of seismic wave velocities of fault damage zones may affect earthquake nucleation process. Both laboratory experiments and seismic observations show that the abrupt earthquake failure can be preceded by accelerated fault deformation and the accompanying velocity reduction of near-fault rocks. We will use earthquake cycle simulations to systematically test the effects of timing and amplitudes of such precursory velocity changes. Our simulations will provide new insights into the interplay between fault zone structure and earthquake nucleation process, which can be used to guide future real-time monitoring of major fault zones. 

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5. Uplift and exhumation of the Russell Fiord and Boundary blocks along the northern Fairweather transform fault, Alaska

   Schartman, A. ; Enkelmann, E. ; Garver, J.I. ; Davidson, C.M. ( January 2019 , Lithosphere)

   Cooling ages of tectonic blocks between the Yakutat microplate and the Fairweather transform boundary fault reveal exhumation due to strike-slip faulting and subsequent collision into this tectonic corner. The Yakutat and Boundary faults are splay faults that define tectonic panels with bounding faults that have evidence of both reverse and strike-slip motion, and they are parallel to the northern end of the Fairweather fault. Uplift and exhumation simultaneous with strike-slip motion have been significant since the late Miocene. The blocks are part of an actively deforming tectonic corner, as indicated by the ~14–1.5 m of coseismic uplift from the M 8.1 Yakutat Bay earthquake of 1899 and 4 m of strike-slip motion in the M 7.9 Lituya Bay earthquake in 1958 along the Fairweather fault. New apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He (AHe) and zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) data reveal that the Boundary block and the Russell Fiord block have different cooling histories since the Miocene, and thus the Boundary fault that separates them is an important tectonic boundary. Upper Cretaceous to Paleocene flysch of the Russell Fiord block experienced a thermal event at 50 Ma, then a relatively long period of burial until the late Miocene when initial exhumation resulted in ZHe ages between 7 and 3 Ma, and then very rapid exhumation in the last 1–1.5 m.y. Exhumation of the Russell Fiord block was accommodated by reverse faulting along the Yakutat fault and the newly proposed Calahonda fault, which is parallel to the Yakutat fault. The Eocene schist of Nunatak Fiord and 54–53 Ma Mount Stamy and Mount Draper granites in the Boundary block have AHe and ZHe cooling ages that indicate distinct and very rapid cooling between ca. 5 Ma and ca. 2 Ma. Rocks of the Chugach Metamorphic Complex to the northeast of the Fairweather fault and in the fault zone were brought up from 10–12 km at extremely high rates (>5 km/m.y.) since ca. 3 Ma, which implies a significant component of dip-slip motion along the Fairweather fault. The adjacent rocks of the Boundary block were exhumed with similar rates and from similar depths during the early Pliocene, when they may have been located 220–250 km farther south near Baranof Island. The profound and significant exhumation of the three tectonic blocks in the last 5 m.y. has probably been driven by uplift and erosional exhumation due to contraction as rocks collide into this tectonic corner. The documented spatial and temporal pattern of exhumation is in agreement with the southward shift of focused exhumation at the St. Elias syntaxial corner and the southeast propagation of the fold-and thrust belt. 

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