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The neural Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) model has shown success in learning complex continuous-time processes from observations on discrete time stamps. In this work, we consider the modeling and forecasting of time series data that are non-stationary and may have sharp changes like spikes. We propose an RNN-based model, called RNN-ODE-Adap, that uses a neural ODE to represent the time development of the hidden states, and we adaptively select time steps based on the steepness of changes of the data over time so as to train the model more efficiently for the "spike-like" time series. Theoretically, RNN-ODE-Adap yields provably a consistent estimation of the intensity function for the Hawkes-type time series data. We also provide an approximation analysis of the RNN-ODE model showing the benefit of adaptive steps. The proposed model is demonstrated to achieve higher prediction accuracy with reduced computational cost on simulated dynamic system data and point process data and on a real electrocardiography dataset.
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NeuroView-RNN: It’s About Time
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are important tools for processing sequential data such as time-series or video. Interpretability is defined as the ability to be understood by a person and is different from explainability, which is the ability to be explained in a mathematical formulation. A key interpretability issue with RNNs is that it is not clear how each hidden state per time step contributes to the decision-making process in a quantitative manner. We propose NeuroView-RNN as a family of new RNN architectures that explains how all the time steps are used for the decision-making process. Each member of the family is derived from a standard RNN architecture by concatenation of the hidden steps into a global linear classifier. The global linear classifier has all the hidden states as the input, so the weights of the classifier have a linear mapping to the hidden states. Hence, from the weights, NeuroView-RNN can quantify how important each time step is to a particular decision. As a bonus, NeuroView-RNN also offers higher accuracy in many cases compared to the RNNs and their variants. We showcase the benefits of NeuroView-RNN by evaluating on a multitude of diverse time-series datasets.
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- PAR ID:
- 10371728
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- FAccT '22: 2022 ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1683 to 1697
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1145/3531146.3533224
