skip to main content

Attention:

The NSF Public Access Repository (NSF-PAR) system and access will be unavailable from 11:00 PM ET on Thursday, October 10 until 2:00 AM ET on Friday, October 11 due to maintenance. We apologize for the inconvenience.


Title: Comparison of a Neutral Density Model With the SET HASDM Density Database
Abstract

The EXospheric TEMperatures on a PoLyhedrAl gRid (EXTEMPLAR) method predicts the neutral densities in the thermosphere. The performance of this model has been evaluated through a comparison with the Air Force High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM). The Space Environment Technologies (SET) HASDM database that was used for this test spans the 20 years 2000 through 2019, containing densities at 3 hr time intervals at 25 km altitude steps, and a spatial resolution of 10° latitude by 15° longitude. The upgraded EXTEMPLAR that was tested uses the newer Naval Research Laboratory MSIS 2.0 model to convert global exospheric temperature values to neutral density as a function of altitude. The revision also incorporated time delays that varied as a function of location, between the total Poynting flux in the polar regions and the exospheric temperature response. The density values from both models were integrated on spherical shells at altitudes ranging from 200 to 800 km. These sums were compared as a function of time. The results show an excellent agreement at temporal scales ranging from hours to years. The EXTEMPLAR model performs best at altitudes of 400 km and above, where geomagnetic storms produce the largest relative changes in neutral density. In addition to providing an effective method to compare models that have very different spatial resolutions, the use of density totals at various altitudes presents a useful illustration of how the thermosphere behaves at different altitudes, on time scales ranging from hours to complete solar cycles.

 
more » « less
Award ID(s):
2019465
NSF-PAR ID:
10375156
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Space Weather
Volume:
19
Issue:
12
ISSN:
1542-7390
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract

    Thermal equilibrium in planetary atmospheres occurs at altitudes where the ion, electron, and neutral temperatures are equal. Thermal equilibrium is postulated to occur in the collision‐dominated ionosphere. This postulated altitude is above the lower boundary of all empirical models of planetary ionospheres. Physics‐based model predictions of the altitude cannot be validated due to a lack of adequate simultaneous observations of temperature profiles. This study presents temperature profiles from simultaneous observations on Atmosphere Explorer–C below 140 km and quiet‐time neutral observations from Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energy and Dynamics/Global UltraViolet Imager over Millstone Hill. These are compared with profiles from physics‐based models with a discussion of their respective limitations. We conclude that there does not yet exist a quantitative understanding of the ion, electron, and neutral thermalization processes in low‐altitude planetary ionospheres. Progress on this topic requires an adequate database of simultaneous ion, electron, and neutral temperature profiles in the 110–140 km altitude range.

     
    more » « less
  2. Abstract

    The density cell structure in the high‐latitude thermosphere is referred to as the density enhancement or depletion with respect to the surrounding area. Previous simulation results showed that the density cells are only observed below about 350 km. In the present work, the global ionosphere‐thermosphere model is used to investigate the mechanism for the absence of the isolated density cell in the high‐altitude thermosphere during geomagnetic quiet time. The simulation results indicate that the ion convection tends to drive a neutral cyclonic flow on the dawnside of the Magnetic Pole in both the low‐ and high‐altitude thermosphere. Around the center of the cyclonic flow, a downward wind is formed as a consequence of mass conservation. It is interesting that under the influence of the downward flow, a density depletion relative to the background density with the same magnitude is generated inside the cyclone, which is independent of altitude. In the low‐altitude thermosphere, this density depletion is shown as an isolated low‐density cell. However, in the high‐altitude thermosphere, the ion drag‐driven density depletion turns to be an insignificant structure, as compared to the strong day‐night gradient of the background neutral density. Consequently, the isolated low‐density cell does not stand out in the high‐altitude thermosphere.

     
    more » « less
  3. Abstract

    The largest obstacle to managing satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) is accurately forecasting the neutral mass densities that appreciably impact atmospheric drag. Empirical thermospheric models are often used to estimate neutral densities but they struggle to forecast neutral densities during geomagnetic storms when they are highly variable. Physics‐based models are thus increasingly turned to for their ability to describe the dynamical evolution of neutral densities. However, these models require observations to constrain dynamical state variables to be able to forecast mass densities with adequate fidelity. The LEO environment has scarce neutral state observations. Here, we demonstrate, in simulated experiments, a reduction in orbit errors and neutral densities using a physics‐based, data assimilation approach with ionospheric observations. Using a coupled thermosphere‐ionosphere model, the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model, we assimilate Constellation Observing System for Meterology, Ionosphere, and Climate electron density profiles (EDPs) derived from radio occultation (RO) observations. We use the EDPs to directly update neutral states, improving errors for neutral temperature by 70% and neutral winds by 20%. Updated neutral temperature and neutral winds additionally improve helium composition errors by 60% and 40%, respectively. Improved neutral density estimates correspond to a reduction in orbit errors of 1.2 km over 2 days, a 70% reduction over a no‐assimilation control, and a 29 km improvement over 9 days. This study builds on the results of our earlier work to further develop and demonstrate the potential of using a vast and growing RO data source, with a physics‐based model, to overcome our limited number of neutral observations.

     
    more » « less
  4. Abstract

    The space weather research community relies heavily on thermospheric density data to understand long‐term thermospheric variability, construct assimilative, empirical, and semiempirical global atmospheric models and validate model performance. One of the challenges in resolving accurate thermospheric density data sets from satellite orbital drag measurements is modeling appropriate physical aerodynamic drag force coefficients. The drag coefficient may change throughout the thermosphere due to model dependencies on composition and altitude. As such, existing drag coefficient model errors and corresponding errors in orbit‐derived density data sets and models may be altitude and solar cycle dependent with greater errors at higher altitudes around 500 km near the oxygen‐to‐helium transition region. In this paper, inter‐satellite observed‐to‐modeled density comparisons at ∼500 km are evaluated to constrain drag coefficient modeling assumptions. Observed densities are derived from accelerometer data for the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and Two‐Line Element data for a set of compact satellites, while the NRLMSISE‐00 atmospheric model is used to obtain modeled densities and composition information. Density consistency results indicate that drag coefficient models with incomplete energy and momentum accommodation produce the most consistent densities, while the standard diffuse modeling approach may not be appropriate at these altitudes. Models with momentum accommodation between 0.5 and 0.9 and energy accommodation between 0.83 and 0.96 may be most appropriate at upper thermospheric altitudes. Modeling drag coefficients with diffuse gas‐surface interactions for the GRACE satellites could lead to errors in derived density of ∼25% and in‐track satellite orbit prediction uncertainty during solar maximum conditions on the order of kilometers.

     
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    On 3 February 2022, at 18:13 UTC, SpaceX launched and a short time later deployed 49 Starlink satellites at an orbit altitude between 210 and 320 km. The satellites were meant to be further raised to 550 km. However, the deployment took place during the main phase of a moderate geomagnetic storm, and another moderate storm occurred on the next day. The resulting increase in atmospheric drag led to 38 out of the 49 satellites reentering the atmosphere in the following days. In this work, we use both observations and simulations to perform a detailed investigation of the thermospheric conditions during this storm. Observations at higher altitudes, by Swarm‐A (∼438 km, 09/21 Local Time [LT]) and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow‐On (∼505 km, 06/18 LT) missions show that during the main phase of the storms the neutral mass density increased by 110% and 120%, respectively. The storm‐time enhancement extended to middle and low latitudes and was stronger in the northern hemisphere. To further investigate the thermospheric variations, we used six empirical and first‐principle numerical models. We found the models captured the upper and lower thermosphere changes, however, their simulated density enhancements differ by up to 70%. Further, the models showed that at the low orbital altitudes of the Starlink satellites (i.e., 200–300 km) the global averaged storm‐time density enhancement reached up to ∼35%–60%. Although such storm effects are far from the largest, they seem to be responsible for the reentry of the 38 satellites.

     
    more » « less