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1. Data-driven speciation tree prior for better species divergence times in calibration-poor molecular phylogenies

   https://doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btab307  

   Tao, Qiqing; Barba-Montoya, Jose; Kumar, Sudhir (July 2021, Bioinformatics)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Motivation Precise time calibrations needed to estimate ages of species divergence are not always available due to fossil records' incompleteness. Consequently, clock calibrations available for Bayesian dating analyses can be few and diffused, i.e. phylogenies are calibration-poor, impeding reliable inference of the timetree of life. We examined the role of speciation birth–death (BD) tree prior on Bayesian node age estimates in calibration-poor phylogenies and tested the usefulness of an informative, data-driven tree prior to enhancing the accuracy and precision of estimated times. Results We present a simple method to estimate parameters of the BD tree prior from the molecular phylogeny for use in Bayesian dating analyses. The use of a data-driven birth–death (ddBD) tree prior leads to improvement in Bayesian node age estimates for calibration-poor phylogenies. We show that the ddBD tree prior, along with only a few well-constrained calibrations, can produce excellent node ages and credibility intervals, whereas the use of an uninformative, uniform (flat) tree prior may require more calibrations. Relaxed clock dating with ddBD tree prior also produced better results than a flat tree prior when using diffused node calibrations. We also suggest using ddBD tree priors to improve the detection of outliers and influential calibrations in cross-validation analyses. These results have practical applications because the ddBD tree prior reduces the number of well-constrained calibrations necessary to obtain reliable node age estimates. This would help address key impediments in building the grand timetree of life, revealing the process of speciation and elucidating the dynamics of biological diversification. Availability and implementation An R module for computing the ddBD tree prior, simulated datasets and empirical datasets are available at https://github.com/cathyqqtao/ddBD-tree-prior. 

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2. Phase Resolution of Heterozygous Sites in Diploid Genomes is Important to Phylogenomic Analysis under the Multispecies Coalescent Model

   https://doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syab047  

   Huang, Jun; Bennett, Jeremy; Flouri, Tomáš; Leaché, Adam D; Yang, Ziheng (June 2021, Systematic Biology)

   Thomson, Robert (Ed.)

   Abstract Genome sequencing projects routinely generate haploid consensus sequences from diploid genomes, which are effectively chimeric sequences with the phase at heterozygous sites resolved at random. The impact of phasing errors on phylogenomic analyses under the multispecies coalescent (MSC) model is largely unknown. Here, we conduct a computer simulation to evaluate the performance of four phase-resolution strategies (the true phase resolution, the diploid analytical integration algorithm which averages over all phase resolutions, computational phase resolution using the program PHASE, and random resolution) on estimation of the species tree and evolutionary parameters in analysis of multilocus genomic data under the MSC model. We found that species tree estimation is robust to phasing errors when species divergences were much older than average coalescent times but may be affected by phasing errors when the species tree is shallow. Estimation of parameters under the MSC model with and without introgression is affected by phasing errors. In particular, random phase resolution causes serious overestimation of population sizes for modern species and biased estimation of cross-species introgression probability. In general, the impact of phasing errors is greater when the mutation rate is higher, the data include more samples per species, and the species tree is shallower with recent divergences. Use of phased sequences inferred by the PHASE program produced small biases in parameter estimates. We analyze two real data sets, one of East Asian brown frogs and another of Rocky Mountains chipmunks, to demonstrate that heterozygote phase-resolution strategies have similar impacts on practical data analyses. We suggest that genome sequencing projects should produce unphased diploid genotype sequences if fully phased data are too challenging to generate, and avoid haploid consensus sequences, which have heterozygous sites phased at random. In case the analytical integration algorithm is computationally unfeasible, computational phasing prior to population genomic analyses is an acceptable alternative. [BPP; introgression; multispecies coalescent; phase; species tree.] 

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3. Inferring the Total-Evidence Timescale of Marattialean Fern Evolution in the Face of Model Sensitivity.

   May, M.R.; Contreras, D.L.; Sundue, M.A.; Nagalingum, N.S.; Looy, C.V.; Rothfels, C.J. (March 2021, Systematic biology)

   Ryan Folk (Ed.)

   Phylogenetic divergence-time estimation has been revolutionized by two recent developments: 1) total-evidence dating (or "tip-dating") approaches that allow for the incorporation of fossils as tips in the analysis, with their phylogenetic and temporal relationships to the extant taxa inferred from the data and 2) the fossilized birth-death (FBD) class of tree models that capture the processes that produce the tree (speciation, extinction, and fossilization) and thus provide a coherent and biologically interpretable tree prior. To explore the behavior of these methods, we apply them to marattialean ferns, a group that was dominant in Carboniferous landscapes prior to declining to its modest extant diversity of slightly over 100 species. We show that tree models have a dramatic influence on estimates of both divergence times and topological relationships. This influence is driven by the strong, counter-intuitive informativeness of the uniform tree prior, and the inherent nonidentifiability of divergence-time models. In contrast to the strong influence of the tree models, we find minor effects of differing the morphological transition model or the morphological clock model. We compare the performance of a large pool of candidate models using a combination of posterior-predictive simulation and Bayes factors. Notably, an FBD model with epoch-specific speciation and extinction rates was strongly favored by Bayes factors. Our best-fitting model infers stem and crown divergences for the Marattiales in the mid-Devonian and Late Cretaceous, respectively, with elevated speciation rates in the Mississippian and elevated extinction rates in the Cisuralian leading to a peak diversity of ∼2800 species at the end of the Carboniferous, representing the heyday of the Psaroniaceae. This peak is followed by the rapid decline and ultimate extinction of the Psaroniaceae, with their descendants, the Marattiaceae, persisting at approximately stable levels of diversity until the present. This general diversification pattern appears to be insensitive to potential biases in the fossil record; despite the preponderance of available fossils being from Pennsylvanian coal balls, incorporating fossilization-rate variation does not improve model fit. In addition, by incorporating temporal data directly within the model and allowing for the inference of the phylogenetic position of the fossils, our study makes the surprising inference that the clade of extant Marattiales is relatively young, younger than any of the fossils historically thought to be congeneric with extant species. This result is a dramatic demonstration of the dangers of node-based approaches to divergence-time estimation, where the assignment of fossils to particular clades is made a priori (earlier node-based studies that constrained the minimum ages of extant genera based on these fossils resulted in much older age estimates than in our study) and of the utility of explicit models of morphological evolution and lineage diversification. [Bayesian model comparison; Carboniferous; divergence-time estimation; fossil record; fossilized birth–death; lineage diversification; Marattiales; models of morphological evolution; Psaronius; RevBayes.] 

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4. Inferring the Total-Evidence Timescale of Marattialean Fern Evolution in the Face of Model Sensitivity

   https://doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syab020  

   May, Michael R; Contreras, Dori L; Sundue, Michael A; Nagalingum, Nathalie S; Looy, Cindy V; Rothfels, Carl J (March 2021, Systematic Biology)

   Folk, Ryan (Ed.)

   Abstract Phylogenetic divergence-time estimation has been revolutionized by two recent developments: 1) total-evidence dating (or "tip-dating") approaches that allow for the incorporation of fossils as tips in the analysis, with their phylogenetic and temporal relationships to the extant taxa inferred from the data and 2) the fossilized birth-death (FBD) class of tree models that capture the processes that produce the tree (speciation, extinction, and fossilization) and thus provide a coherent and biologically interpretable tree prior. To explore the behavior of these methods, we apply them to marattialean ferns, a group that was dominant in Carboniferous landscapes prior to declining to its modest extant diversity of slightly over 100 species. We show that tree models have a dramatic influence on estimates of both divergence times and topological relationships. This influence is driven by the strong, counter-intuitive informativeness of the uniform tree prior, and the inherent nonidentifiability of divergence-time models. In contrast to the strong influence of the tree models, we find minor effects of differing the morphological transition model or the morphological clock model. We compare the performance of a large pool of candidate models using a combination of posterior-predictive simulation and Bayes factors. Notably, an FBD model with epoch-specific speciation and extinction rates was strongly favored by Bayes factors. Our best-fitting model infers stem and crown divergences for the Marattiales in the mid-Devonian and Late Cretaceous, respectively, with elevated speciation rates in the Mississippian and elevated extinction rates in the Cisuralian leading to a peak diversity of $${\sim}$$2800 species at the end of the Carboniferous, representing the heyday of the Psaroniaceae. This peak is followed by the rapid decline and ultimate extinction of the Psaroniaceae, with their descendants, the Marattiaceae, persisting at approximately stable levels of diversity until the present. This general diversification pattern appears to be insensitive to potential biases in the fossil record; despite the preponderance of available fossils being from Pennsylvanian coal balls, incorporating fossilization-rate variation does not improve model fit. In addition, by incorporating temporal data directly within the model and allowing for the inference of the phylogenetic position of the fossils, our study makes the surprising inference that the clade of extant Marattiales is relatively young, younger than any of the fossils historically thought to be congeneric with extant species. This result is a dramatic demonstration of the dangers of node-based approaches to divergence-time estimation, where the assignment of fossils to particular clades is made a priori (earlier node-based studies that constrained the minimum ages of extant genera based on these fossils resulted in much older age estimates than in our study) and of the utility of explicit models of morphological evolution and lineage diversification. [Bayesian model comparison; Carboniferous; divergence-time estimation; fossil record; fossilized birth–death; lineage diversification; Marattiales; models of morphological evolution; Psaronius; RevBayes.] 

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5. ILS-Aware Analysis of Low-Homoplasy Retroelement Insertions: Inference of Species Trees and Introgression Using Quartets

   https://doi.org/10.1093/jhered/esz076  

   Springer, Mark S; Molloy, Erin K; Sloan, Daniel B; Simmons, Mark P; Gatesy, John (December 2019, Journal of Heredity)

   Murphy, William (Ed.)

   Abstract DNA sequence alignments have provided the majority of data for inferring phylogenetic relationships with both concatenation and coalescent methods. However, DNA sequences are susceptible to extensive homoplasy, especially for deep divergences in the Tree of Life. Retroelement insertions have emerged as a powerful alternative to sequences for deciphering evolutionary relationships because these data are nearly homoplasy-free. In addition, retroelement insertions satisfy the “no intralocus-recombination” assumption of summary coalescent methods because they are singular events and better approximate neutrality relative to DNA loci commonly sampled in phylogenomic studies. Retroelements have traditionally been analyzed with parsimony, distance, and network methods. Here, we analyze retroelement data sets for vertebrate clades (Placentalia, Laurasiatheria, Balaenopteroidea, Palaeognathae) with 2 ILS-aware methods that operate by extracting, weighting, and then assembling unrooted quartets into a species tree. The first approach constructs a species tree from retroelement bipartitions with ASTRAL, and the second method is based on split-decomposition with parsimony. We also develop a Quartet-Asymmetry test to detect hybridization using retroelements. Both ILS-aware methods recovered the same species-tree topology for each data set. The ASTRAL species trees for Laurasiatheria have consecutive short branch lengths in the anomaly zone whereas Palaeognathae is outside of this zone. For the Balaenopteroidea data set, which includes rorquals (Balaenopteridae) and gray whale (Eschrichtiidae), both ILS-aware methods resolved balaeonopterids as paraphyletic. Application of the Quartet-Asymmetry test to this data set detected 19 different quartets of species for which historical introgression may be inferred. Evidence for introgression was not detected in the other data sets. 

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