Successive atmospheric river (AR) events—known as AR families—can result in prolonged and elevated hydrological impacts relative to single ARs due to the lack of recovery time between periods of precipitation. Despite the outsized societal impacts that often stem from AR families, the large-scale environments and mechanisms associated with these compound events remain poorly understood. In this work, a new reanalysis-based 39-yr catalog of 248 AR family events affecting California between 1981 and 2019 is introduced. Nearly all (94%) of the interannual variability in AR frequency is driven by AR family versus single events. Using
Variability of the flow across the Solomon Sea's southern entrance was examined using end point subsurface moorings and seafloor pressure sensors, reconstructed velocity profiles based on satellite‐derived surface velocity and bottom pressure‐derived subsurface velocity, and 1993–2017 proxy volume transport based on satellite altimetry. The reconstructed velocity correctly represents the fluctuating surface flow and subsurface core providing a high‐frequency continuous observing system for this sea. The mean equatorward volume transport over 0‐ to 500‐m depth layer is 15.2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106m3/s) during July 2012 to May 2017. The measurements resolve the full spectrum of the volume transport including energetic subseasonal variability that fluctuates by as much as 25 Sv over one week. At low‐frequency timescales, the study finds that linear Rossby waves forced by Ekman pumping in the interior of the Pacific influence not only seasonal fluctuations as found by previous studies but also interannual variability. As found previously, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation highly influences interannual volume transport. During the 2015/2016 El Niño, observations show the seasonal cycle to be suppressed from the second half of 2014, prior to the mature phase of the El Niño, to September 2016 along with an increase in across‐transect transport. At subseasonal timescales, local Ekman pumping and remote wind stress curl are responsible for a third of the subseasonal variance. The study highlights the importance of high‐frequency observations at the southern entrance of the Solomon Sea and the ability of a linear Rossby model to represent the low‐frequency variability of the transport.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10375430
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans
- Volume:
- 124
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 2169-9275
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 5085-5104
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract k -means clustering on the 500-hPa geopotential height field, six distinct clusters of large-scale patterns associated with AR families are identified. Two clusters are of particular interest due to their strong relationship with phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). One of these clusters is characterized by a strong ridge in the Bering Sea and Rossby wave propagation, most frequently occurs during La Niña and neutral ENSO years, and is associated with the highest cluster-average precipitation across California. The other cluster, characterized by a zonal elongation of lower geopotential heights across the Pacific basin and an extended North Pacific jet, most frequently occurs during El Niño years and is associated with lower cluster-average precipitation across California but with a longer duration. In contrast, single AR events do not show obvious clustering of spatial patterns. This difference suggests that the potential predictability of AR families may be enhanced relative to single AR events, especially on subseasonal to seasonal time scales. -
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Abstract Climate variability has distinct spatial patterns with the strongest signal of sea surface temperature (SST) variance residing in the tropical Pacific. This interannual climate phenomenon, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), impacts weather patterns across the globe via atmospheric teleconnections. Pronounced SST variability, albeit of smaller amplitude, also exists in the other tropical basins as well as in the extratropical regions. To improve our physical understanding of internal climate variability across the global oceans, we here make the case for a conceptual model hierarchy that captures the essence of observed SST variability from subseasonal to decadal timescales. The building blocks consist of the classic stochastic climate model formulated by Klaus Hasselmann, a deterministic low-order model for ENSO variability, and the effect of the seasonal cycle on both of these models. This model hierarchy allows us to trace the impacts of seasonal processes on the statistics of observed and simulated climate variability. One of the important outcomes of ENSO’s interaction with the seasonal cycle is the generation of a frequency cascade leading to deterministic climate variability on a wide range of timescales, including the near-annual ENSO Combination Mode. Using the aforementioned building blocks, we arrive at a succinct conceptual model that delineates ENSO’s ubiquitous climate impacts and allows us to revisit ENSO’s observed statistical relationships with other coherent spatio-temporal patterns of climate variability—so called empirical
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Abstract. The Indian Ocean presents two distinct climate regimes. The north Indian Ocean is dominated by the monsoons, whereas the seasonal reversal is less pronounced in the south. The prevailing wind pattern produces upwelling along different parts of the coast in both hemispheres during different times of the year. Additionally, dynamical processes and eddies either cause or enhance upwelling. This paper reviews the phenomena of upwelling along the coast of the Indian Ocean extending from the tip of South Africa to the southern tip of the west coast of Australia. Observed features, underlying mechanisms, and the impact of upwelling on the ecosystem are presented. In the Agulhas Current region, cyclonic eddies associated with Natal pulses drive slope upwelling and enhance chlorophyll concentrations along the continental margin. The Durban break-away eddy spun up by the Agulhas upwells cold nutrient-rich water. 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