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1. Development and validation of predictive models for COVID-19 outcomes in a safety-net hospital population

   https://doi.org/10.1093/jamia/ocac062  

   Hao, Boran ; Hu, Yang ; Sotudian, Shahabeddin ; Zad, Zahra ; Adams, William G. ; Assoumou, Sabrina A. ; Hsu, Heather ; Mishuris, Rebecca G. ; Paschalidis, Ioannis C. ( May 2022 , Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association)

   To develop predictive models of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes, elucidate the influence of socioeconomic factors, and assess algorithmic racial fairness using a racially diverse patient population with high social needs.

   Data included 7,102 patients with positive (RT-PCR) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 test at a safety-net system in Massachusetts. Linear and nonlinear classification methods were applied. A score based on a recurrent neural network and a transformer architecture was developed to capture the dynamic evolution of vital signs. Combined with patient characteristics, clinical variables, and hospital occupancy measures, this dynamic vital score was used to train predictive models.

   Hospitalizations can be predicted with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 92% using symptoms, hospital occupancy, and patient characteristics, including social determinants of health. Parsimonious models to predict intensive care, mechanical ventilation, and mortality that used the most recent labs and vitals exhibited AUCs of 92.7%, 91.2%, and 94%, respectively. Early predictive models, using labs and vital signs closer to admission had AUCs of 81.1%, 84.9%, and 92%, respectively.

   The most accurate models exhibit racial bias, being more likely to falsely predict that Black patients will be hospitalized. Models that are only based on the dynamic vital score exhibited accuracies close to the best parsimonious models, although the latter also used laboratories.

   This large study demonstrates that COVID-19 severity may accurately be predicted using a score that accounts for the dynamic evolution of vital signs. Further, race, social determinants of health, and hospital occupancy play an important role.

    

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2. Prediction of rehospitalization and mortality risks for skilled nursing facilities using a dimension reduction approach

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s12877-023-03995-y  

   David Gomez, Juan Camilo ; Cochran, Amy ; Smith, Maureen ; Zayas-Cabán, Gabriel ( June 2023 , BMC Geriatrics)

   Hospitals are incentivized to reduce rehospitalization rates, creating an emphasis on skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) for post-hospital discharge. How rehospitalization rates vary depending on patient and SNF characteristics is not well understood, in part because these characteristics are high-dimensional. We sought to estimate rehospitalization and mortality risks by patient and skilled nursing facility (SNF) leveraging high-dimensional characteristics.

   Using 1,060,337 discharges from 13,708 SNFs of Medicare patients residing or visiting a provider in Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois, factor analysis was performed to reduce the number of patient and SNF characteristics. K-means clustering was applied to SNF factors to categorize SNFs into groups. Rehospitalization and mortality risks within 60 days of discharge was estimated by SNF group for various values of patient factors.

   Patient and SNF characteristics (616 in total) were reduced to 12 patient factors and 4 SNF groups. Patient factors reflected broad conditions. SNF groups differed in beds and staff capacity, off-site services, and physical and occupational therapy capacity; and in mortality and rehospitalization rates for some patients. Patients with cardiac, orthopedic, and neuropsychiatric conditions are associated with better outcomes when assigned to SNFs with greater on-site capacity (i.e. beds, staff, physical and occupational therapy), whereas patients with conditions related to cancer or chronic renal failure are associated with better outcomes when assigned to SNFs with less on-site capacity.

   Risks of rehospitalization and mortality appear to vary significantly by patient and SNF, with certain SNFs being better suited for some patient conditions over others.

    

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3. Early Prediction of Multiple Organ Dysfunction in the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fped.2021.711104  

   Bose, Sanjukta N. ; Greenstein, Joseph L. ; Fackler, James C. ; Sarma, Sridevi V. ; Winslow, Raimond L. ; Bembea, Melania M. ( August 2021 , Frontiers in Pediatrics)

   null (Ed.)

   Objective: The objective of the study is to build models for early prediction of risk for developing multiple organ dysfunction (MOD) in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) patients. Design: The design of the study is a retrospective observational cohort study. Setting: The setting of the study is at a single academic PICU at the Johns Hopkins Hospital, Baltimore, MD. Patients: The patients included in the study were <18 years of age admitted to the PICU between July 2014 and October 2015. Measurements and main results: Organ dysfunction labels were generated every minute from preceding 24-h time windows using the International Pediatric Sepsis Consensus Conference (IPSCC) and Proulx et al. MOD criteria. Early MOD prediction models were built using four machine learning methods: random forest, XGBoost, GLMBoost, and Lasso-GLM. An optimal threshold learned from training data was used to detect high-risk alert events (HRAs). The early prediction models from all methods achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve ≥0.91 for both IPSCC and Proulx criteria. The best performance in terms of maximum F1-score was achieved with random forest (sensitivity: 0.72, positive predictive value: 0.70, F1-score: 0.71) and XGBoost (sensitivity: 0.8, positive predictive value: 0.81, F1-score: 0.81) for IPSCC and Proulx criteria, respectively. The median early warning time was 22.7 h for random forest and 37 h for XGBoost models for IPSCC and Proulx criteria, respectively. Applying spectral clustering on risk-score trajectories over 24 h following early warning provided a high-risk group with ≥0.93 positive predictive value. Conclusions: Early predictions from risk-based patient monitoring could provide more than 22 h of lead time for MOD onset, with ≥0.93 positive predictive value for a high-risk group identified pre-MOD. 

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4. Recent advances in wearable sensors and data analytics for continuous monitoring and analysis of biomarkers and symptoms related to COVID-19

   https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0140900  

   Li, Huijie ; Yuan, Jianhe ; Fennell, Gavin ; Abdulla, Vagif ; Nistala, Ravi ; Dandachi, Dima ; Ho, Dominic K. ; Zhang, Yi ( September 2023 , Biophysics Reviews)

   The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the lives of many people around the world. Based on the available data and published reports, most people diagnosed with COVID-19 exhibit no or mild symptoms and could be discharged home for self-isolation. Considering that a substantial portion of them will progress to a severe disease requiring hospitalization and medical management, including respiratory and circulatory support in the form of supplemental oxygen therapy, mechanical ventilation, vasopressors, etc. The continuous monitoring of patient conditions at home for patients with COVID-19 will allow early determination of disease severity and medical intervention to reduce morbidity and mortality. In addition, this will allow early and safe hospital discharge and free hospital beds for patients who are in need of admission. In this review, we focus on the recent developments in next-generation wearable sensors capable of continuous monitoring of disease symptoms, particularly those associated with COVID-19. These include wearable non/minimally invasive biophysical (temperature, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, heart rate, and heart rate variability) and biochemical (cytokines, cortisol, and electrolytes) sensors, sensor data analytics, and machine learning-enabled early detection and medical intervention techniques. Together, we aim to inspire the future development of wearable sensors integrated with data analytics, which serve as a foundation for disease diagnostics, health monitoring and predictions, and medical interventions. 

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5. Deep learning for deterioration prediction of COVID-19 patients based on time-series of three vital signs

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-37013-3  

   Mehrdad, Sarmad ; Shamout, Farah E. ; Wang, Yao ; Atashzar, S. Farokh ( June 2023 , Scientific Reports)

   Unrecognized deterioration of COVID-19 patients can lead to high morbidity and mortality. Most existing deterioration prediction models require a large number of clinical information, typically collected in hospital settings, such as medical images or comprehensive laboratory tests. This is infeasible for telehealth solutions and highlights a gap in deterioration prediction models based on minimal data, which can be recorded at a large scale in any clinic, nursing home, or even at the patient’s home. In this study, we develop and compare two prognostic models that predict if a patient will experience deterioration in the forthcoming 3 to 24 h. The models sequentially process routine triadic vital signs: (a) oxygen saturation, (b) heart rate, and (c) temperature. These models are also provided with basic patient information, including sex, age, vaccination status, vaccination date, and status of obesity, hypertension, or diabetes. The difference between the two models is the way that the temporal dynamics of the vital signs are processed. Model #1 utilizes a temporally-dilated version of the Long-Short Term Memory model (LSTM) for temporal processes, and Model #2 utilizes a residual temporal convolutional network (TCN) for this purpose. We train and evaluate the models using data collected from 37,006 COVID-19 patients at NYU Langone Health in New York, USA. The convolution-based model outperforms the LSTM based model, achieving a high AUROC of 0.8844–0.9336 for 3 to 24 h deterioration prediction on a held-out test set. We also conduct occlusion experiments to evaluate the importance of each input feature, which reveals the significance of continuously monitoring the variation of the vital signs. Our results show the prospect for accurate deterioration forecast using a minimum feature set that can be relatively easily obtained using wearable devices and self-reported patient information.

    

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