With the increased deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV), the cadmium telluride (CdTe) PV market is expected to grow substantially. CdTe PV production is crucial for the clean energy transition but problematic because of the material availability challenges. CdTe PV relies on tellurium, a scarce metal mainly produced as a byproduct of copper. Several studies investigated the availability of tellurium for CdTe PV. However, previous models are static and do not reflect the interconnection between tellurium supply, demand, and price. Despite the efforts, previous studies have inconsistent results and do not provide a clear understanding on the availability of tellurium for CdTe PV applications. This study uses system dynamics modeling to assess tellurium availability between 2023 and 2050. The model considers different scenarios for CdTe PV demand growth and PV material intensity reduction. The model also considers tellurium supply variables such as Te‐rich ores, tellurium yield from anode slimes, and growth in copper mining. The historical data (2000–2020) analysis shows a negative correlation between the tellurium price and the annual tellurium surplus. All the considered demand scenarios exhibit a tellurium supply gap where annual material production falls below demand. Tellurium availability and price could delay the growth of CdTe PV production, and maintaining the current CdTe PV market share of ~4% will be challenging. The low‐demand scenario, which is based on a constant CdTe PV market share, results in a supply gap starting in 2029 and a supply gap peak of 508 metric tons in 2036. Our work shows that having more manufacturing capacity is insufficient if tellurium is unavailable. More importantly, this work shows that fast growth in CdTe PV production can diminish the advantages of dematerialization. The estimated cumulative CdTe PV production by 2050 ranges between 929 and 2250 GWp. The findings also suggest that recycling retired solar panels can contribute to 17% of the total tellurium demand and 34% of the CdTe PV tellurium demand. Sensitivity analysis shows that expanding existing Te‐rich ores does not alleviate tellurium scarcity. Alternatively, improving tellurium yield from copper electrorefining is a more efficient mitigation approach. The system dynamic approach outlined in this study provides a better perspective on the status of various critical metal supply chains, ultimately leading to sustainable materials management and increasing CdTe production.
Material Requirement and Resource Availability for Silicon Photovoltaic Laminate Manufacturing in the Next 10 Years
Material scarcity is a considerable threat to energy transition towards renewables. Photovoltaics (PV) installations are expected to increase rapidly in the next decade, which may increase the amount of material needed. This study created three scenarios (S 1 , S 2 , & S 3 ) to evaluate the impacts of potential technology improvements on the quantity of materials necessary for manufacturing silicon PV (Si PV) laminate in the next ten years. Our baseline was similar to previous studies, which applied theoretical models on PV historical data and ignored PV technology improvements that can influence future material projections. S 1 considered only market share and module efficiency, while S 2 covered wafer thickness improvements as well. S 3 was the scenario that more likely will occur in the next decade, which included module efficiency, market share, wafer thickness, glass thickness, and potential replacements such as using perovskite/silicon tandem. The material requirement for Si PV laminate manufacturing in S 3 was 22% to 78% lower than the baseline, S 1 , and S 2 . The highest material demand is expected to be for solar glass (74 million metric tons) and Metallurgical grade silicon (3 million metric tons) in the next decade. This study showed the importance of considering technology improvements to project the PV material requirement.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1801785
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10378313
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- 2021 IEEE 48th Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC)
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1768 to 1772
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Cadmium telluride (CdTe) solar cells are a promising photovoltaic (PV) technology for producing power in space owing to their high-efficiency (> 22.1 %), potential for specific power, and cost-effective manufacturing processes. In contrast to traditional space PVs, the high-Z (atomic number) CdTe absorbers can be intrinsically robust under extreme space radiation, offering long-term stability. Despite these advantages, the performance assessment of CdTe solar cells under high-energy particle irradiation (e.g., photons, neutrons, charged particles) is limited in the literature, and their stability is not comprehensively studied. In this work, we present the PV response of n-CdS / p-CdTe PVs under accelerated neutron irradiation. We measure PV properties of the devices at different neutron/photon doses. The equivalent dose deposited in the CdTe samples is simulated with deterministic and Monte Carlo radiation transport methods. Thin-film CdTe solar cells were synthesized on a fluorine-doped tin oxide (FTO) coated glass substrate (≈ 4 cm × 4 cm). CdS:O (≈ 100 nm) was reactively RF sputtered in an oxygen/argon ambient followed by a close-spaced sublimation deposition of CdTe (≈ 3.5 μm) in an oxygen/helium ambient. The sample was exposed to a 10 min vapor CdCl2 in oxygen/helium ambient at 430˚C. The samples were exposed to a wet CuCl2 solution prior to anneal 200ºC. A gold back-contact was formed on CdTe via thermal evaporation. The final sample contains 16 CdTe devices. For neutron irradiation, we cleaved the CdTe substrate into four samples and exposed two samples to ≈ 90 kW reactor power neutron radiation for 5.5 hours and 8.2 hours, respectively, in our TRIGA (Training, Research, Isotopes, General Atomics) reactor. We observed a noticeable color change of the glass substrates to brown after the neutron/gamma reactor exposure. Presumably, the injected high-energy neutrons caused the breaking of chemical bonds and the displacement of atoms in the glass substrates, creating point defects and color centers. The I-V characteristics showed noticeable deterioration with over 8 hour radiations. Specifically, the saturation current of the control devices was ≈ 25 nA increasing to 1 μA and 10 μA for the 5.5-hour and 8.2-hour radiated samples, respectively. The turn-on voltage of the control devices (≈ 0.85 V) decreased with the irradiated sample (≈ 0.75 V for 5.5-hour and ≈ 0.5 V for 8.2-hour exposures), implying noticeable radiation damage occurred at the heterojunction. The higher values of the ideality factor for irradiated devices (n > 2.2) compared to that of the control devices (n ≈ 1.3) also support the deterioration of the p-n junction. We observed the notable decrease in shunt resistance (RSH) and the increase in series resistance (Rs) with the neutron dose. It is possible that Cu ions introduced during the CuCl2 treatment may migrate into CdTe grain boundaries (GBs). The presence of Cu ions at GBs can create additional leakage paths for photocarrier transport, deteriorating the overall PV performance. We estimated the radiation dose of CdTe in comparison to Si (conventional PV) using a UUTR model (e.g., MCNP6 2D UTR Reactor simulations). In this model, we simulated Si and CdTe at the center point of the triangular fuel lattice and used an “unperturbed flux” tally in the water. Our simulations yielded a dose rate of 6916 Gy/s of neutrons and 16 Gy/s of photons for CdTe, and 1 Gy/s of neutrons and 21 Gy/s of photons for Si (doses +/- <1%). The large dose rate of neutrons in CdTe is mainly attributed to the large thermal neutron absorption cross-section of 113Cd. Based on this estimation, we calculate that the exposure of our CdTe PVs is equivalent to several million years in LEO (Low-Earth Orbit), or about 10,000 years for Si in LEO. Currently, we are working on a low-dose neutron/photon radiation on CdTe PVs and their light I-Vs and microstructural characterizations to gain better understanding on the degradation of CdTe PVs.more » « less
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Carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites have been increasingly used to replace metal parts in many industries such as aerospace, marine, automotive, and sporting goods. The CFRP parts compared with their metallic counter parts have the advantages of lightweight, significantly higher tensile strength, stiffer, and corrosion resistant. On the other hand, compared with many metal parts, the CFRP parts have many well-known disadvantages including the lower toughness, lower through-thickness tensile and shear strengths, lower thermal conductivity, lower electrical conductivity, and lower operating temperature. These disadvantages have made the conversion from metal parts into CFRP parts challenging and costly to design, manufacture, and maintain. The use of nanoparticles in polymer has been studied in the recent two decades. Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) and carbon nanofibers (CNFs) have been dispersed in various thermoset and thermoplastic polymers and improved the mechanical, electrical, and thermal properties; however, the properties were not comparable to CFRP. Later, researchers tried to infuse CNTs or CNFs into either carbon fiber preforms [1] or glass fiber preforms [2] for improving the mechanical properties. But the results were marginal and with great uncertainty due to the challenges of nanoparticle dispersion, filtering, and alignment while being infused through the fiber preform. The glass fiber preform experiments ended with relatively more consistent improvement than the carbon fiber preform experiments since that the glass fiber preform has significantly larger pores than the carbon fiber preform' s. The small pore size presented a great challenge for infusing millions of unaligned long CNTs or CNFs through the carbon fiber preform without being filtered. To infuse long CNFs or CNTs through the carbon fiber preform and achieve reliable improvements, especially for 55% or higher carbon fiber volume fraction with increasingly tighter pores, an innovative plan for the processing and nano-reinforcing strategy is necessary. The z-threading strategy [3, 4, 5] has been reported to have consistent experimental successes in achieving the statistically meaningful improvement in multifunctional properties. The manufacturing steps of the CNF z-threaded CFRP (ZT-CFRP) are: (1) disperse the CNFs in a resin, (2) use a strong electrical field to align the CNFs in either the B-stage epoxy film or a CNF/resin impregnated sponge layer, whereas the CNFs are aligned in the through-thickness direction of the film or sponge layer. (3) place the resin film or sponge layer on a preheated dry carbon fiber fabric and press the resin film into the hot carbon fabric and allow the resin flow to carry the well-aligned CNFs to thread through the pores in the carbon fabric. (4) cool down the resin saturated and CNF z-threaded carbon fiber fabric to obtain the ZT-CFRP prepreg. (5) use the ZT-CFRP prepreg to make the ZT-CFRP laminate. Compared with the traditional CFRP, the ZT-CFRP laminates were reported of having improvement in the Mode-I delamination toughness, interlaminar shear strength, longitudinal compressive strength, through-thickness electrical conductivity, through-thickness thermal conductivity, and can reach the carbon fiber volume fraction of 55-80%. It is an effective approach to achieve a multifunctional CFRP for potentially expanding CFRP's applications.more » « less
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The major focus of artificial intelligence (AI) research is made on biomimetic synaptic processes that are mimicked by functional memory devices in the computer industry [1]. It is urgent to find a memory technology for suiting with Brain-Inspired Computing to break the von Neumann bottleneck which limits the efficiency of conventional computer architectures [2]. Silicon-based flash memory, which currently dominates the market for data storage devices, is facing challenging issues to meet the needs of future data storage device development due to the limitations, such as high-power consumption, high operation voltage, and low retention capacity [1]. The emerging resistive random-access memory (RRAM) has elicited intense research as its simple sandwiched structure, including top electrode (TE) layer, bottom electrode (BE) layer, and an intermediate resistive switching (RS) layer, can store data using RS phenomenon between the high resistance state (HRS) and the low resistance state (LRS). This class of emerging devices is expected to outperform conventional memory devices [3]. Specifically, the advantages of RRAM include low-voltage operation, short programming time, great cyclic stability, and good scalability [4]. Among the materials for RS layer, indium gallium zinc oxide (IGZO) has attracted attention because of its abundance and high atomic diffusion property of oxygen atoms, transparency, and its easily modulated electrical properties by controlling the stoichiometric ratio of indium and gallium as well as oxygen potential in the sputter gas [5, 6]. Moreover, since the IGZO can be applied to both the thin-film transistor (TFT) channel and RS layer, the IGZO-based fully integrated transparent electronics are very promising [5]. In this work, we proposed transparent IGZO-based RRAMs. First, we chose ITO to serve as both TE and BE to achieve high transmittance in the visible regime of light. All three layers (TE, RS, BE layers) were deposited using a multi-target magnetron sputtering system on glass substrates to demonstrate fully transparent oxide-based devices. I-V characteristics were evaluated by a semiconductor parameter analyzer, and our devices showed typical butterfly curves indicating the bipolar RS property. And the IGZO-based RRAM can survive more than 50 continuous sweeping cycles. The optical transmission analysis was carried out via an UV-Vis spectrometer and the average transmittance around 80% out of entire devices in the visible-light wavelength range, implying high transparency. To investigate the thickness dependence on the properties of RS layer, 50nm, 100nm and 150nm RS layer of IGZO RRAM were fabricated. Also, the oxygen partial pressure during the sputtering of IGZO was varied to optimize the property because the oxygen vacancy concentration governs the RS and RRAM performance. Electrode selection is crucial and can impact the performance of the whole device [7]. Thus, Cu TE was chosen for our second type of device because the diffusion of Cu ions can be beneficial for the formation the conductive filament (CF). Finally, a ~5 nm SiO2 barrier layer was employed between TE and RS layers to confine the diffusion of Cu into the RS layer. At the same time, this SiO2 inserting layer can provide an additional interfacial series resistance in the device to lower the off current, consequently, improve the on/off ratio and whole performance. In conclusion, the transparent IGZO-based RRAMs were established. To tune the property of RS layer, the thickness layer and sputtering conditions of RS were adjusted. In order to engineer the diffusion capability of the TE material to the RS layer and the BE, a set of TE materials and a barrier layer were integrated in IGZO-based RRAM and the performance was compared. Our encouraging results clearly demonstrate that IGZO is a promising material in RRAM applications and overcoming the bottleneck of current memory technologies.more » « less
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Abstract Frequency modulated continuous wave laser ranging (FMCW LiDAR) enables distance mapping with simultaneous position and velocity information, is immune to stray light, can achieve long range, operate in the eye-safe region of 1550 nm and achieve high sensitivity. Despite its advantages, it is compounded by the simultaneous requirement of both narrow linewidth low noise lasers that can be precisely chirped. While integrated silicon-based lasers, compatible with wafer scale manufacturing in large volumes at low cost, have experienced major advances and are now employed on a commercial scale in data centers, and impressive progress has led to integrated lasers with (ultra) narrow sub-100 Hz-level intrinsic linewidth based on optical feedback from photonic circuits, these lasers presently lack fast nonthermal tuning, i.e. frequency agility as required for coherent ranging. Here, we demonstrate a hybrid photonic integrated laser that exhibits very narrow intrinsic linewidth of 25 Hz while offering linear, hysteresis-free, and mode-hop-free-tuning beyond 1 GHz with up to megahertz actuation bandwidth constituting 1.6 × 1015Hz/s tuning speed. Our approach uses foundry-based technologies - ultralow-loss (1 dB/m) Si3N4photonic microresonators, combined with aluminium nitride (AlN) or lead zirconium titanate (PZT) microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) based stress-optic actuation. Electrically driven low-phase-noise lasing is attained by self-injection locking of an Indium Phosphide (InP) laser chip and only limited by fundamental thermo-refractive noise at mid-range offsets. By utilizing difference-drive and apodization of the photonic chip to suppress mechanical vibrations of the chip, a flat actuation response up to 10 MHz is achieved. We leverage this capability to demonstrate a compact coherent LiDAR engine that can generate up to 800 kHz FMCW triangular optical chirp signals, requiring neither any active linearization nor predistortion compensation, and perform a 10 m optical ranging experiment, with a resolution of 12.5 cm. Our results constitute a photonic integrated laser system for scenarios where high compactness, fast frequency actuation, and high spectral purity are required.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1109/PVSC43889.2021.9518663
