Predictive relationships between plant traits and environmental factors can be derived at global and regional scales, informing efforts to reorient ecological models around functional traits. However, in a changing climate, the environmental variables used as predictors in such relationships are far from stationary. This could yield errors in trait–environment model predictions if timescale is not accounted for. Here, the timescale dependence of trait–environment relationships is investigated by regressing We identify contrasting responses of leaf and wood traits to climate timescale. Leaf traits are best predicted by recent climate timescales, while wood density is a longer term memory trait. The use of sub‐optimal climate timescales reduces the accuracy of the resulting trait–environment relationships. This study concludes that plant traits respond to climate conditions on the timescale of tissue lifespans rather than long‐term climate normals, even at large spatial scales where multiple ecological and physiological mechanisms drive trait change. Thus, determining trait–environment relationships with temporally relevant climate variables may be critical for predicting trait change in a nonstationary climate system.
Forests may help climate mitigation if they can store carbon for centuries Climate‐driven disturbances may greatly undermine these aims in California Multi‐disciplinary and open research is urgently needed to inform policy
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10379731
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- AGU Advances
- Volume:
- 2
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2576-604X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
more » « less
Summary in situ trait measurements of specific leaf area, leaf nitrogen content, and wood density on local climate characteristics summarized across several increasingly long timescales. -
more » « less
Abstract Improved estimation of climate niches is critical, given climate change. Plant adaptation to climate depends on their physiological traits and their distributions, yet traits are rarely used to inform the estimation of species climate niches, and the power of a trait‐based approach has been controversial, given the many ecological factors and methodological issues that may result in decoupling of species' traits from their native climate.
For 107 species across six ecosystems of California, we tested the hypothesis that mechanistic leaf and wood traits can robustly predict the mean of diverse species' climate distributions, when combining methodological improvements from previous studies, including standard trait measurements and sampling plants growing together at few sites. Further, we introduce an approach to quantify species' trait‐climate mismatch.
We demonstrate a strong power to predict species mean climate from traits. As hypothesized, the prediction of species mean climate is stronger (and mismatch lower) when traits are sampled for individuals closer to species' mean climates.
Improved resolution of species' climate niches based on mechanistic traits can importantly inform conservation of vulnerable species under the threat of climatic shifts in upcoming decades.
Read the free
Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. -
more » « less
Abstract Predicting species' range shifts under future climate is a central goal of conservation ecology. Studying populations within and beyond multiple species' current ranges can help identify whether demographic responses to climate change exhibit directionality, indicative of range shifts, and whether responses are uniform across a suite of species.
We quantified the demographic responses of six native perennial prairie species planted within and, for two species, beyond their northern range limits to a 3‐year experimental manipulation of temperature and precipitation at three sites spanning a latitudinal climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA. We estimated population growth rates (
λ ) using integral projection models and tested for opposing responses to climate in different demographic vital rates (demographic compensation).Where species successfully established reproductive populations, warming negatively affected
λ at sites within species' current ranges. Contrarily, warming and drought positively affectedλ for the two species planted beyond their northern range limits. Most species failed to establish a reproductive population at one or more sites within their current ranges, due to extremely low germination and seedling survival. We found little evidence of demographic compensation buffering populations to the climate treatments.Synthesis . These results support predictions across a suite of species that ranges will need to shift with climate change as populations within current ranges become increasingly vulnerable to decline. Species capable of dispersing beyond their leading edges may be more likely to persist, as our evidence suggests that projected changes in climate may benefit such populations. If species are unable to disperse to new habitat on their own, assisted migration may need to be considered to prevent the widespread loss of vulnerable species. -
more » « less
Summary The response of vegetation to climate change has implications for the carbon cycle and global climate. It is frequently assumed that a species responds uniformly across its range to climate change. However, ecotypes − locally adapted populations within a species − display differences in traits that may affect their gross primary productivity (
GPP ) and response to climate change.To determine if ecotypes are important for understanding the response of ecosystem productivity to climate we measured and modeled growing season
GPP in reciprocally transplanted and experimentally warmed ecotypes of the abundant Arctic sedgeEriophorum vaginatum .Transplanted northern ecotypes displayed home‐site advantage in
GPP that was associated with differences in leaf area index. Southern ecotypes exhibited a greater response inGPP when transplanted.The results demonstrate that ecotypic differentiation can impact the morphology and function of vegetation with implications for carbon cycling. Moreover they suggest that ecotypic control of
GPP may limit the response of ecosystem productivity to climate change. This investigation shows that ecotypes play a substantial role in determiningGPP and its response to climate. These results have implications for understanding annual to decadal carbon cycling where ecotypes could influence ecosystem function and vegetation feedbacks to climate change. -
more » « less
Abstract Climate change certainly shapes weather events. However, describing climate and weather as the cause of disasters can be misleading, since disasters are caused by pre‐existing fragilities and inequalities on the ground. Analytic frames that attribute disaster to climate can divert attention from these place‐based vulnerabilities and their socio‐political causes. Thus, while politicians may want to blame crises on climate change, members of the public may prefer to hold government accountable for inadequate investments in flood or drought prevention and precarious living conditions. To be both strategic and moral, framing choices must therefore be sensitive to context‐dependent political meanings and particularities, and to how the values implicit within analytic frames about the causes of disasters shape policy responses. Such sensitivity requires multicausal analysis of weather‐linked disasters to illuminate a broader range of means to reduce the damages associated with climate change and weather extremes. Through examples from around the world, and especially Brazil, we discuss how and why climate‐centric disaster framing can erase from view—and, thus, from policy agendas—the very socio‐economic and political factors that most centrally cause vulnerability and suffering in weather extremes and disasters. We also offer a theoretical discussion of why attribution is not neutral. Analytic frameworks always embed choices about factors that matter, and thus are inherently normative and consequential for understandings of responsibility and action.
This article is categorized under:
Social Status of Climate Change Knowledge > Climate Science and Decision Making
Highlight Attributing crises only to climate is inadequate from a mechanical, moral, and strategic policy points of view.
