We discovered a natural
Increases in wheat grain yield are necessary to meet future global food demands. A previous study showed that loss-of-function mutations in
Climate extremes cause significant winter wheat yield loss and can cause much greater impacts than single extremes in isolation when multiple extremes occur simultaneously. Here we show that compound hot-dry-windy events (HDW) significantly increased in the U.S. Great Plains from 1982 to 2020. These HDW events were the most impactful drivers for wheat yield loss, accounting for a 4% yield reduction per 10 h of HDW during heading to maturity. Current HDW trends are associated with yield reduction rates of up to 0.09 t ha−1per decade and HDW variations are atmospheric-bridged with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We quantify the “yield shock”, which is spatially distributed, with the losses in severely HDW-affected areas, presumably the same areas affected by the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Our findings indicate that compound HDW, which traditional risk assessments overlooked, have significant implications for the U.S. winter wheat production and beyond.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1826820
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10381914
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 13
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Key message FT-A2 allele that increases grain number per spike in both pasta and bread wheat with limited effect on heading time.Abstract FLOWERING LOCUS T2 (FT2 ) increase spikelet number per spike (SNS), an important grain yield component. However, these mutations were also associated with reduced fertility, offsetting the beneficial effect of the increases in SNS on grain number. Here, we report a natural mutation resulting in an aspartic acid to alanine change at position 10 (D10A) associated with significant increases in SNS and no negative effects on fertility. Using a high-density genetic map, we delimited the SNS candidate region to a 5.2-Mb region on chromosome 3AS including 28 genes. Among them, onlyFT-A2 showed a non-synonymous polymorphism (D10A) present in two different populations segregating for the SNS QTL on chromosome arm 3AS. These results, together with the known effect of theft-A2 mutations on SNS, suggest that variation inFT-A2 is the most likely cause of the observed differences in SNS. We validated the positive effects of the A10 allele on SNS, grain number, and grain yield per spike in near-isogenic tetraploid wheat lines and in an hexaploid winter wheat population. The A10 allele is present at very low frequency in durum wheat and at much higher frequency in hexaploid wheat, particularly in winter and fall-planted spring varieties. These results suggest that theFT-A2 A10 allele may be particularly useful for improving grain yield in durum wheat and fall-planted common wheat varieties. -
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Abstract Winter wheat (
Triticum aestivum L.) is essential to maintain food security for a large proportion of the world’s population. With increased risk from abiotic stresses due to climate variability, it is imperative to understand and minimize the negative impact of these stressors, including high night temperature (HNT). Both globally and at regional scales, a differential rate of increase in day and night temperature is observed, wherein night temperatures are increasing at a higher pace and the trend is projected to continue into the future. Previous studies using controlled environment facilities and small field-based removable chambers have shown that post-anthesis HNT stress can induce a significant reduction in wheat grain yield. A prototype was previously developed by utilizing field-based tents allowing for simultaneous phenotyping of popular winter wheat varieties from US Midwest and advanced breeding lines. Hence, the objectives of the study were to (i) design and build a new field-based infrastructure and test and validate the uniformity of HNT stress application on a scaled-up version of the prototype (ii) improve and develop a more sophisticated cyber-physical system to sense and impose post-anthesis HNT stress uniformly through physiological maturity within the scaled-up tents; and (iii) determine the impact of HNT stress during grain filling on the agronomic and grain quality parameters including starch and protein concentration. The system imposed a consistent post-anthesis HNT stress of + 3.8 °C until maturity and maintained uniform distribution of stress which was confirmed by (i) 0.23 °C temperature differential between an array of sensors within the tents and (ii) statistically similar performance of a common check replicated multiple times in each tent. On average, a reduction in grain-filling duration by 3.33 days, kernel weight by 1.25% per °C, grain number by 2.36% per °C and yield by 3.58% per °C increase in night temperature was documented. HNT stress induced a significant reduction in starch concentration indicating disturbed carbon balance. The pilot field-based facility integrated with a robust cyber-physical system provides a timely breakthrough for evaluating HNT stress impact on large diversity panels to enhance HNT stress tolerance across field crops. The flexibility of the cyber-physical system and movement capabilities of the field-based infrastructure allows this methodology to be adaptable to different crops. -
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Abstract Compound wind and precipitation (CWP) extreme events can cause a significant increase in socio‐economic loss in coastal regions. This study investigated the potential impact of climate change on CWP events using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project model outputs for the coastal areas impacted by tropical cyclones on a global scale. We identified global hotspots of higher dependence between extreme wind and precipitation events. Under climate change, the results show a substantial increase in precipitation extremes compared to individual wind extreme events. The likelihood of CWP events under climate change indicates an increase (about 40%–50%) in most coastal regions in North Atlantic, East, and South Asia. The results of this study can help to identify hotspot regions under climate change and further assist in minimizing the impact of future disasters in vulnerable coastal areas.
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Abstract Strengthened by polar amplification, Arctic warming provides direct evidence for global climate change. This analysis shows how Arctic surface air temperature (SAT) extremes have changed throughout time. Using ERA5, we demonstrate a pan-Arctic (>60°N) significant upward SAT trend of +0.62°C decade−1since 1979. Due to this warming, the warmest days of each month in the 1980s to 1990s would be considered average today, while the present coldest days would be regarded as normal in the 1980s to 1990s. Over 1979–2021, there was a 2°C (or 7%) reduction of pan-Arctic SAT seasonal cycle, which resulted in warming of the cold SAT extremes by a factor of 2 relative to the SAT trend and dampened trends of the warm SAT extremes by roughly 25%. Since 1979, autumn has seen the strongest increasing trends in daily maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as counts of days with SAT above the 90th percentile and decreasing trends in counts of days with SAT below the 10th percentile, consistent with rapid Arctic sea ice decline and enhanced air–ocean heat fluxes. The modulated SAT seasonal signal has a significant impact on the timing of extremely strong monthly cold and warm spells. The dampening of the SAT seasonal fluctuations is likely to continue to increase as more sea ice melts and upper-ocean warming persists. As a result, the Arctic winter cold SAT extremes may continue to exhibit a faster rate of change than that of the summer warm SAT extremes as the Arctic continues to warm.
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