Tropospheric18O18O is an emerging proxy for past tropospheric ozone and free‐tropospheric temperatures. The basis of these applications is the idea that isotope‐exchange reactions in the atmosphere drive18O18O abundances toward isotopic equilibrium. However, previous work used an offline box‐model framework to explain the18O18O budget, approximating the interplay of atmospheric chemistry and transport. This approach, while convenient, has poorly characterized uncertainties. To investigate these uncertainties, and to broaden the applicability of the18O18O proxy, we developed a scheme to simulate atmospheric18O18O abundances (quantified as ∆36values) online within the GEOS‐Chem chemical transport model. These results are compared to both new and previously published atmospheric observations from the surface to 33 km. Simulations using a simplified O2isotopic equilibration scheme within GEOS‐Chem show quantitative agreement with measurements only in the middle stratosphere; modeled ∆36values are too high elsewhere. Investigations using a comprehensive model of the O‐O2‐O3isotopic photochemical system and proof‐of‐principle experiments suggest that the simple equilibration scheme omits an important pressure dependence to ∆36values: the anomalously efficient titration of18O18O to form ozone. Incorporating these effects into the online ∆36calculation scheme in GEOS‐Chem yields quantitative agreement for all available observations. While this previously unidentified bias affects the atmospheric budget of18O18O in O2, the modeled change in the mean tropospheric ∆36value since 1850 CE is only slightly altered; it is still quantitatively consistent with the ice‐core ∆36record, implying that the tropospheric ozone burden increased less than 40% over the twentieth century.
The history of tropospheric O3, an important atmospheric oxidant, is poorly constrained because of uncertainties in its historical budget and a dearth of independent records. Here, we estimate the mean tropospheric O3burden during the Last Interglacial period (LIG; 115 to 130 thousand years ago) using a record of the clumped isotopic composition of O2(i.e., Δ36values) preserved in Antarctic ice. The measured LIG Δ36value is 0.03 ± 0.02‰ (95% CI) higher than the late pre‐industrial Holocene (PI; 1,590–1,850 CE) value and corresponds to a modeled 9% reduction in LIG tropospheric O3burden (95% CI: 3%–15%), caused in part by a substantial reduction in biomass burning emissions during the LIG relative to the PI. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that late‐Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions caused woody and grassy fuels to accumulate on land, leading to enhanced biomass burning in the preindustrial Holocene.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 2002414
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10383378
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 49
- Issue:
- 23
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract STUDY QUESTION To what extent is preconception maternal or paternal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination associated with miscarriage incidence?
SUMMARY ANSWER COVID-19 vaccination in either partner at any time before conception is not associated with an increased rate of miscarriage.
WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Several observational studies have evaluated the safety of COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy and found no association with miscarriage, though no study prospectively evaluated the risk of early miscarriage (gestational weeks [GW] <8) in relation to COVID-19 vaccination. Moreover, no study has evaluated the role of preconception vaccination in both male and female partners.
STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION An Internet-based, prospective preconception cohort study of couples residing in the USA and Canada. We analyzed data from 1815 female participants who conceived during December 2020–November 2022, including 1570 couples with data on male partner vaccination.
PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Eligible female participants were aged 21–45 years and were trying to conceive without use of fertility treatment at enrollment. Female participants completed questionnaires at baseline, every 8 weeks until pregnancy, and during early and late pregnancy; they could also invite their male partners to complete a baseline questionnaire. We collected data on COVID-19 vaccination (brand and date of doses), history of SARS-CoV-2 infection (yes/no and date of positive test), potential confounders (demographic, reproductive, and lifestyle characteristics), and pregnancy status on all questionnaires. Vaccination status was categorized as never (0 doses before conception), ever (≥1 dose before conception), having a full primary sequence before conception, and completing the full primary sequence ≤3 months before conception. These categories were not mutually exclusive. Participants were followed up from their first positive pregnancy test until miscarriage or a censoring event (induced abortion, ectopic pregnancy, loss to follow-up, 20 weeks’ gestation), whichever occurred first. We estimated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for miscarriage and corresponding 95% CIs using Cox proportional hazards models with GW as the time scale. We used propensity score fine stratification weights to adjust for confounding.
MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Among 1815 eligible female participants, 75% had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by the time of conception. Almost one-quarter of pregnancies resulted in miscarriage, and 75% of miscarriages occurred <8 weeks’ gestation. The propensity score-weighted IRR comparing female participants who received at least one dose any time before conception versus those who had not been vaccinated was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.63, 1.14). COVID-19 vaccination was not associated with increased risk of either early miscarriage (GW: <8) or late miscarriage (GW: 8–19). There was no indication of an increased risk of miscarriage associated with male partner vaccination (IRR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.56, 1.44).
LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The present study relied on self-reported vaccination status and infection history. Thus, there may be some non-differential misclassification of exposure status. While misclassification of miscarriage is also possible, the preconception cohort design and high prevalence of home pregnancy testing in this cohort reduced the potential for under-ascertainment of miscarriage. As in all observational studies, residual or unmeasured confounding is possible.
WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This is the first study to evaluate prospectively the relation between preconception COVID-19 vaccination in both partners and miscarriage, with more complete ascertainment of early miscarriages than earlier studies of vaccination. The findings are informative for individuals planning a pregnancy and their healthcare providers.
STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This work was supported by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, the National Institute of Health [R01-HD086742 (PI: L.A.W.); R01-HD105863S1 (PI: L.A.W. and M.L.E.)], the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (R03-AI154544; PI: A.K.R.), and the National Science Foundation (NSF-1914792; PI: L.A.W.). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection, analysis and interpretation of data, writing of the report, or the decision to submit the paper for publication. L.A.W. is a fibroid consultant for AbbVie, Inc. She also receives in-kind donations from Swiss Precision Diagnostics (Clearblue home pregnancy tests) and Kindara.com (fertility apps). M.L.E. received consulting fees from Ro, Hannah, Dadi, VSeat, and Underdog, holds stock in Ro, Hannah, Dadi, and Underdog, is a past president of SSMR, and is a board member of SMRU. K.F.H. reports being an investigator on grants to her institution from UCB and Takeda, unrelated to this study. S.H.-D. reports being an investigator on grants to her institution from Takeda, unrelated to this study, and a methods consultant for UCB and Roche for unrelated drugs. The authors report no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.
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Abstract The Arctic hydrological cycle is predicted to intensify as the Arctic warms, due to increased poleward moisture transport during summer and increased evaporation from seas once ice‐covered during winter. Records of past Arctic precipitation seasonality are important because they provide a context for these ongoing changes. In some Arctic lakes, stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen (δ18O and δ2H, respectively) vary seasonally, due to seasonal changes in precipitation δ18O and δ2H. We reconstruct precipitation seasonality from Lake N3, a well‐dated lake sediment archive in Disko Bugt, western Greenland, by generating Holocene records of two proxies that are produced at different times of the year, and therefore record different lake water seasonal isotopic compositions. Aquatic plants synthesize waxes throughout the summer, and their δ2H reflects winter‐biased precipitation δ2H at Lake N3, whereas chironomids synthesize their head capsules between late summer and winter, and their δ18O reflects summer‐biased precipitation δ18O at Lake N3. During the middle Holocene at Lake N3, aquatic plant leaf wax was strongly2H‐depleted, while chironomid chitin was18O‐enriched. We guide interpretations of these records using sensitivity tests of a lake water and energy balance model, where we change precipitation amount and isotope seasonality inputs. The sensitivity tests suggest that the contrasting trends between proxies were likely caused by an increase in precipitation amount during all seasons and an increase in precipitation isotope seasonality, in addition to proxy‐specific mechanisms, highlighting the importance of understanding lake‐ and proxy‐specific systematics when interpreting records from sediment archives.
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Abstract Pedogenic carbonate is commonly used as a paleoarchive, but its interpretation is limited by our understanding of its formation conditions. We investigated laminated soil carbonate rinds as a high‐resolution paleoarchive in Torrey, Utah, USA, by characterizing and modeling their formation conditions. We compared late Holocene (<5 ka) soil carbonate conventional (C and O) and “clumped” isotopes to modern soil environment and isotope measurements: soil CO2partial pressure, soil temperature, soil moisture, δ13C‐soil CO2, δ18O precipitation, and δ18O‐soil water. Data unambiguously identified a strong summer seasonality bias, but modeling suggested soil carbonate formed several times throughout the year during infiltration events causing dissolution‐formation reactions. This apparent discrepancy resulted from preferential preservation of calcite formed from the largest annual infiltration events (summer) overprinting previously formed calcite. Soil carbonate therefore formed predominantly due to changes in soil water content. As soil CO2was at its annual maximum during soil carbonate formation, assuming uniformly low soil CO2formation conditions for soil carbonate in estimating paleoatmospheric CO2is likely not viable. Additionally, we showed modern summer δ13C‐soil CO2and soil CO2measurements could not produce a modeled δ13C‐soil carbonate consistent with late Holocene observations. We suggest using multiple lines of evidence to identify nonanalogous modern conditions. Finally, a nearly linear radiocarbon age model from a laminated rind showed that rinds can be used as a high‐resolution paleoarchive if samples are from a single depth and the timing and conditions of soil carbonate formation can be constrained through time.
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Abstract Ancient greenhouse periods are useful analogs for predicting effects of anthropogenic climate change on regional and global temperature and precipitation patterns. A paucity of terrestrial data from polar regions during warm episodes challenges our understanding of polar climate responses to natural/anthropogenic change and therefore our ability to predict future changes in precipitation. Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg Islands in the Canadian Arctic preserve terrestrial deposits spanning the late Paleocene to middle Eocene (59–45 Ma). Here we expand on existing regional sedimentology and paleontology through the addition of stable (δ13C, δ18O) and clumped (Δ47) isotope analyses on palustrine carbonates. δ13C isotope values range from −4.6 to +12.3‰ (VPDB), and δ18O isotope values range from −23.1 to −15.2‰ (VPDB). Both carbon and oxygen isotope averages decrease with increasing diagenetic alteration. Unusually enriched carbon isotope (δ13C) values suggest that analyzed carbonates experienced repeated dissolution‐precipitation enrichment cycles, potentially caused by seasonal fluctuations in water availability resulting in summer carbonate dissolution followed by winter carbonate re‐precipitation. Stable isotopes suggest some degree of precipitation seasonality or reduction in winter water availability in the Canadian Arctic during the Paleogene. Clumped (Δ47) temperature estimates range from 52 to 121°C and indicate low temperature solid‐state reordering of micritic samples and diagenetic recrystallization in sparry samples. Average temperatures agree with vitrinite reflectance data for Eureka Sound Group and underlying sediments, highlighting structural complexity across the region. Broadly, combined stable and clumped isotope data from carbonates in complex systems are effective for describing both paleoclimatic and post‐burial conditions.
