This work examines a severe weather event that took place over central Argentina on 11 December 2018. The evolution of the storm from its initiation, rapid organization into a supercell, and eventual decay was analyzed with high‐temporal resolution observations. This work provides insight into the spatio‐temporal co‐evolution of storm kinematics (updraft area and lifespan), cloud‐top cooling rates, and lightning production that led to severe weather. The analyzed storm presented two convective periods with associated severe weather. An overall decrease in cloud‐top local minima IR brightness temperature (MinIR) and lightning jump (LJ) preceded both periods. LJs provided the highest lead time to the occurrence of severe weather, with the ground‐based lightning networks providing the maximum warning time of around 30 min. Lightning flash counts from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) were underestimated when compared to detections from ground‐based lightning networks. Among the possible reasons for GLM's lower detection efficiency were an optically dense medium located above lightning sources and the occurrence of flashes smaller than GLM's footprint. The minimum MinIR provided the shorter warning time to severe weather occurrence. However, the secondary minima in MinIR that preceded the absolute minima improved this warning time by more than 10 min. Trends in MinIR for time scales shorter than 6 min revealed shorter cycles of fast cooling and warming, which provided information about the lifecycle of updrafts within the storm. The advantages of using observations with high‐temporal resolution to analyze the evolution and intensity of convective storms are discussed.
In this study, a new lightning data assimilation (LDA) scheme using Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) flash extent density (FED) is developed and implemented in the National Severe Storms Laboratory Warn‐on‐Forecast System (WoFS). The new LDA scheme first assigns a pseudo relative humidity between the cloud base and a specific layer based on the FED value. Then at each model layer, the pseudo relative humidity is converted to pseudo dewpoint temperature according to the corresponding air temperature. Some sensitivity experiments are performed to investigate how to assign and use GLM/FED in an optimum way. The impact of assimilating this pseudo dewpoint temperature on a short‐term severe weather forecast is preliminarily assessed in this proof‐of‐concept study. A high‐impact weather event in Kansas on 24 May 2021 is used to evaluate the performance of the new scheme on analyses and subsequent short‐term forecasts. The results show that the assimilation of additional FED‐based dewpoint temperature observations along with radar, satellite radiance, and cloud water can improve short‐term (3‐hr) forecast skill in terms of quantitative and qualitative verifications against the observations. The improvement is primarily due to the direct and indirect adjustment of dynamic and thermodynamic conditions through the LDA process. More specifically, the assimilation of FED‐based dewpoint temperature, in addition to the other observations currently used in WoFS, tends to enhance the ingredients required for thunderstorm formation, namely moisture, instability, and lifting mechanism.
more » « less- PAR ID:
- 10384398
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Earth and Space Science
- Volume:
- 9
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 2333-5084
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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