An official website of the United States government
Cool- and warm-season precipitation totals have been reconstructed on a gridded basis for North America using 439 tree-ring chronologies correlated with December–April totals and 547 different chronologies correlated with May–July totals. These discrete seasonal chronologies are not significantly correlated with the alternate season; the December–April reconstructions are skillful over most of the southern and western United States and north-central Mexico, and the May–July estimates have skill over most of the United States, southwestern Canada, and northeastern Mexico. Both the strong continent-wide El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal embedded in the cool-season reconstructions and the Arctic Oscillation signal registered by the warm-season estimates faithfully reproduce the sign, intensity, and spatial patterns of these ocean–atmospheric influences on North American precipitation as recorded with instrumental data. The reconstructions are included in the North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas (NASPA) and provide insight into decadal droughts and pluvials. They indicate that the sixteenth-century megadrought, the most severe and sustained North American drought of the past 500 years, was the combined result of three distinct seasonal droughts, each bearing unique spatial patterns potentially associated with seasonal forcing from ENSO, the Arctic Oscillation, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Significant 200–500-yr-long trends toward increased precipitation have been detected in the cool- and warm-season reconstructions for eastern North America. These seasonal precipitation changes appear to be part of the positive moisture trend measured in other paleoclimate proxies for the eastern area that began as a result of natural forcing before the industrial revolution and may have recently been enhanced by anthropogenic climate change.
more »
« less
Arroyo formation impacts on an early dryland agricultural community in Northeastern Utah, USA
Abstract Indigenous Fremont farmers in Cub Creek, a part of northeastern Utah's Dinosaur National Monument, occupied the northern ecological margin of maize cultivation in western North America from A.D. 300 to 1300. Agriculture in Cub Creek was a response to multidecadal precipitation variability, but when precipitation stabilized between A.D. 750 and 1050, agricultural conditions improved and populations expanded to form villages along the floodplains of local dryland streams. Did the very same conditions (i.e., decreased precipitation variability) that allowed the growth of agricultural societies make them simultaneously vulnerable to arroyo formation, a key geomorphic risk to floodplain agriculturalists? Preliminary results from Cub Creek show that rapid sedimentation punctuated by episodic arroyo formation characterized the last 2000 years. We use stratigraphic and chronological evidence formalized in a Bayesian age model to develop a set of working hypotheses that a 2.5 m‐deep discontinuous arroyo formed before either A.D. 1020 or A.D. 1275. The earlier age corresponds with occupation of the Cub Creek village, while the later age corresponds with the end of Fremont agriculture in Cub Creek, and demonstrates regional synchronicity with arroyo formation across the Colorado Plateau. A second arroyo formed before A.D. 1490, indicating rapid alluvial cycling in Cub Creek. We conclude that floodplain instability and arroyo formation combined with the return of the dominant multidecadal precipitation variability regime beginning at A.D. 1050 was a key constraint on the growth potential of local populations. These findings have potential implications for the development of early Indigenous dryland agricultural systems throughout the interior of western North America.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 2115151
- PAR ID:
- 10384656
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geoarchaeology
- Volume:
- 38
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0883-6353
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 109-126
- Size(s):
- p. 109-126
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
We present oxygen isotope and charcoal accumulation records from two lakes in eastern Washington that have sufficient temporal resolution to quantitatively compare with tree‐ring records and meteorological data. Hydroclimate reconstructions from tree‐rings and lake sediments show close correspondence after accounting for seasonal‐ to centennial‐ scale temporal sensitivities. Carbonate δ18O measurements from Castor and Round lakes reveal that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) experienced wetter November‐March conditions than the Little Ice Age (LIA). Charcoal records from Castor, Round, and nearby lakes show elevated fire activity during the LIA compared to the MCA. Increased multidecadal hydroclimate variability after 1250 CE is evident in proxy records throughout western North America. In the Upper Columbia River Basin, multidecadal wet periods during the LIA may have enhanced fuel loads that burned in subsequent dry periods. A notable decline in biomass burning occurred with Euro‐American settlement in the late nineteenth century.more » « less
-
null (Ed.)Global hydroclimatic changes from 1950 to 2018 are analyzed using updated data of land precipitation, streamfow, and an improved form of the Palmer Drought Severity Index. The historical changes are then compared with climate model-simulated response to external forcing to determine how much of the recent change is forced response. It is found that precipitation has increased from 1950 to 2018 over mid-high latitude Eurasia, most North America, Southeast South America, and Northwest Australia, while it has decreased over most Africa, eastern Australia, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and parts of East Asia, central South America, and the Pacifc coasts of Canada. Streamfow records largely confrm these precipitation changes. The wetting trend over Northwest Australia and Southeast South America is most pronounced in austral summer while the drying over Africa and wetting trend over mid-high latitude Eurasia are seen in all seasons. Coupled with the drying caused by rising surface temperatures, these precipitation changes have greatly increased the risk of drought over Africa, southern Europe, East Asia, eastern Australia, Northwest Canada, and southern Brazil. Global land precipitation and continental freshwater discharge show large interannual and inter-decadal variations, with negative anomalies during El Niño and following major volcanic eruptions in 1963, 1982, and 1991; whereas their decadal variations are correlated with the Interdecadal Pacifc Oscillation (IPO) with IPO’s warm phase associated with low land precipitation and continental discharge. The IPO and Atlantic multidecadal variability also dominate multidecadal variations in land aridity, accounting for 90% of the multidecadal variance. CMIP5 multi-model ensemble mean shows decreased precipitation and runoff and increased risk of drought during 1950–2018 over Southwest North America, Central America, northern and central South America (including the Amazon), southern and West Africa, the Mediterranean region, and Southeast Asia; while the northern mid-high latitudes, Southeast South America, and Northwest Australia see increased precipitation and runoff. The consistent spatial patterns between the observed changes and the model-simulated response suggest that many of the observed drying and wetting trends since 1950 may have resulted at least partly from historical external forcing. However, the drying over Southeast Asia and wetting over Northwest Australia are absent in the 21st century projections.more » « less
-
Ummenhofer, Caroline (Ed.)Long-term, large-scale perspectives are necessary for understanding climate variability and its effects on ecosystems and cultures. Tree ring records of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) have documented major hydroclimatic variability during the last millennium in the American West, but fewer continuous, high-resolution hydroclimate records of the MCA-LIA period are available for eastern North America, particularly during the transition from the MCA to the LIA (ca. A.D. 1250–1400). Diatoms (micro-algae with silica cell walls) in sediment cores from three Adirondack (NY, USA) lakes and a hiatus in a wetland peat deposit in the Adirondack uplands provide novel insights into the late Holocene hydroclimate history of the Northeast. These records demonstrate that two of the region’s most extreme decadal-scale droughts of the last millennium occurred ca. A.D. 1260–1330 and ca. A.D. 1360–1390 during a dry-wet-dry (DWD) oscillation in the Adirondacks that contributed to forest fires and desiccation of wetlands in New York and Maine. The bimodal drying was probably related to more extreme droughts farther west and coincided with major events in Iroquoian and Abenaki cultural history. Although the causes of the DWD oscillation in the Adirondacks remain uncertain, changing sea-surface temperatures and solar variability are likely to have played a role.more » « less
-
Abstract The Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), a dominant mode of multidecadal variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (NASST), has major impacts on global climate. Given that both internal variability and external forcing have contributed to the historical AMV, how future anthropogenic forcing may regulate the AMV is of concern but remains unclear. By analyzing observations and a large ensemble of model simulations [i.e., the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE)], the internally generated (AMV IV ) and externally forced (AMV EX ) components of the AMV and their climatic impacts during the twenty-first century are examined. Consistent with previous findings, the AMV IV would weaken with future warming by 11%–17% in its amplitude by the end of the twenty-first century, along with reduced warming anomaly over the midlatitude North Atlantic under future warming during the positive AMV IV phases. In contrast, the AMV EX is projected to strengthen with reduced frequency under future warming. Furthermore, future AMV IV -related temperature variations would weaken over Eurasia and North Africa but strengthen over the United States, whereas AMV IV -related precipitation over parts of North America and Eurasia would weaken in a warmer climate. The AMV EX ’s impact on global precipitation would also weaken. The results provide new evidence that future anthropogenic forcing (i.e., nonlinear changes in GHGs and aerosols) under different scenarios can generate distinct multidecadal variations and influence the internally generated AMV, and that multidecadal changes in anthropogenic forcing are important for future AMV.more » « less
