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1. Spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 infection and detection within night light networks: comparative analysis of USA and China

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s41109‐020‐00345‐4  

   Small, Christopher ; Sousa, Daniel ( December 2021 , Applied Network Science)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract The spatial distribution of population affects disease transmission, especially when shelter in place orders restrict mobility for a large fraction of the population. The spatial network structure of settlements therefore imposes a fundamental constraint on the spatial distribution of the population through which a communicable disease can spread. In this analysis we use the spatial network structure of lighted development as a proxy for the distribution of ambient population to compare the spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 confirmed cases in the USA and China. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Day/Night Band sensor on the NASA/NOAA Suomi satellite has been imaging night light at ~ 700 m resolution globally since 2012. Comparisons with sub-kilometer resolution census observations in different countries across different levels of development indicate that night light luminance scales with population density over ~ 3 orders of magnitude. However, VIIRS’ constant ~ 700 m resolution can provide a more detailed representation of population distribution in peri-urban and rural areas where aggregated census blocks lack comparable spatial detail. By varying the low luminance threshold of VIIRS-derived night light, we depict spatial networks of lighted development of varying degrees of connectivity within which populations are distributed. The resulting size distributions of spatial network components (connected clusters of nodes) vary with degree of connectivity, but maintain consistent scaling over a wide range (5 × to 10 × in area & number) of network sizes. At continental scales, spatial network rank-size distributions obtained from VIIRS night light brightness are well-described by power laws with exponents near −2 (slopes near −1) for a wide range of low luminance thresholds. The largest components (10 4 to 10 5 km 2 ) represent spatially contiguous agglomerations of urban, suburban and periurban development, while the smallest components represent isolated rural settlements. Projecting county and city-level numbers of confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the USA and China (respectively) onto the corresponding spatial networks of lighted development allows the spatiotemporal evolution of the epidemic (infection and detection) to be quantified as propagation within networks of varying connectivity. Results for China show rapid nucleation and diffusion in January 2020 followed by rapid decreases in new cases in February. While most of the largest cities in China showed new confirmed cases approaching zero before the end of February, most of these cities also showed distinct second waves of cases in March or April. Whereas new cases in Wuhan did not approach zero until mid-March, as of December 2020 it has not yet experienced a second wave of cases. In contrast, the results for the USA show a wide range of trajectories, with an abrupt transition from slow increases in confirmed cases in a small number of network components in January and February, to rapid geographic dispersion to a larger number of components shortly before mobility reductions occurred in March. Results indicate that while most of the upper tail of the network had been exposed by the end of March, the lower tail of the component size distribution has only shown steep increases since mid-June. 

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2. NOx Emission Reduction and Recovery during COVID-19 in East China

   https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040433  

   Zhang, Ruixiong ; Zhang, Yuzhong ; Lin, Haipeng ; Feng, Xu ; Fu, Tzung-May ; Wang, Yuhang ( April 2020 , Atmosphere)

   null (Ed.)

   Since its first confirmed case at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has become a global pandemic in three months with more than 1.4 million confirmed cases worldwide, as of early April 2020. Quantifying the changes of pollutant emissions due to COVID-19 and associated governmental control measures is crucial to understand its impacts on economy, air pollution, and society. We used the WRF-GC model and the tropospheric NO2 column observations retrieved by the TROPOMI instrument to derive the top-down NOx emission change estimation between the three periods: P1 (January 1st to January 22nd, 2020), P2 (January 23rd, Wuhan lockdown, to February 9th, 2020), and P3 (February 10th, back-to-work day, to March 12th, 2020). We found that NOx emissions in East China averaged during P2 decreased by 50% compared to those averaged during P1. The NOx emissions averaged during P3 increased by 26% compared to those during P2. Most provinces in East China gradually regained some of their NOx emissions after February 10, the official back-to-work day, but NOx emissions in most provinces have not yet to return to their previous levels in early January. NOx emissions in Wuhan, the first epicenter of COVID-19, had no sign of emission recovering by March 12. A few provinces, such as Zhejiang and Shanxi, have recovered fast, with their averaged NOx emissions during P3 almost back to pre-lockdown levels. 

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3. Effects of population co-location reduction on cross-county transmission risk of COVID-19 in the United States

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s41109-021-00361-y  

   Fan, Chao ; Lee, Sanghyeon ; Yang, Yang ; Oztekin, Bora ; Li, Qingchun ; Mostafavi, Ali ( December 2021 , Applied Network Science)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract The objective of this study is to examine the transmission risk of COVID-19 based on cross-county population co-location data from Facebook. The rapid spread of COVID-19 in the United States has imposed a major threat to public health, the real economy, and human well-being. With the absence of effective vaccines, the preventive actions of social distancing, travel reduction and stay-at-home orders are recognized as essential non-pharmacologic approaches to control the infection and spatial spread of COVID-19. Prior studies demonstrated that human movement and mobility drove the spatiotemporal distribution of COVID-19 in China. Little is known, however, about the patterns and effects of co-location reduction on cross-county transmission risk of COVID-19. This study utilizes Facebook co-location data for all counties in the United States from March to early May 2020 for conducting spatial network analysis where nodes represent counties and edge weights are associated with the co-location probability of populations of the counties. The analysis examines the synchronicity and time lag between travel reduction and pandemic growth trajectory to evaluate the efficacy of social distancing in ceasing the population co-location probabilities, and subsequently the growth in weekly new cases across counties. The results show that the mitigation effects of co-location reduction appear in the growth of weekly new confirmed cases with one week of delay. The analysis categorizes counties based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and examines co-location patterns within and across groups. Significant segregation is found among different county groups. The results suggest that within-group co-location probabilities (e.g., co-location probabilities among counties with high numbers of cases) remain stable, and social distancing policies primarily resulted in reduced cross-group co-location probabilities (due to travel reduction from counties with large number of cases to counties with low numbers of cases). These findings could have important practical implications for local governments to inform their intervention measures for monitoring and reducing the spread of COVID-19, as well as for adoption in future pandemics. Public policy, economic forecasting, and epidemic modeling need to account for population co-location patterns in evaluating transmission risk of COVID-19 across counties. 

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4. Assessment of the Catastrophic Asia Floods and Potentially Affected Population in Summer 2020 Using VIIRS Flood Products

   https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12193176  

   Li, Sanmei ; Goldberg, Mitchell D. ; Sjoberg, William ; Zhou, Lihang ; Nandi, Sreela ; Chowdhury, Nazmi ; Straka, William ; Yang, Tianshu ; Sun, Donglian ( October 2020 , Remote Sensing)

   null (Ed.)

   Since 2 June 2020, unusual heavy and continuous rainfall from the Asian summer monsoon rainy season caused widespread catastrophic floods in many Asian countries, including primarily the two most populated countries, China and India. To detect and monitor the floods and estimate the potentially affected population, data from sensors aboard the operational polar-orbiting satellites Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-20 were used. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) with a spatial resolution of 375 m available twice per day aboard these two satellites can observe floodwaters over large spatial regions. The flood maps derived from the VIIRS imagery provide a big picture over the entire flooding regions, and demonstrate that, in July, in China, floods mainly occurred across the Yangtze River, Hui River and their tributaries. The VIIRS 5-day composite flood maps, along with a population density dataset, were combined to estimate the population potentially exposed (PPE) to flooding. We report here on the procedure to combine such data using the Zonal Statistic Function from the ArcGIS Spatial Analyst toolbox. Based on the flood extend for July 2020 along with the population density dataset, the Jiangxi and Anhui provinces were the most affected regions with more than 10 million people in Jingdezhen and Shangrao in Jiangxi province, and Fuyang and Luan in Anhui province, and it is estimated that about 55 million people in China might have been affected by the floodwaters. In addition to China, several other countries, including India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, were also severely impacted. In India, the worst inundated states include Utter Pradesh, Bihar, Assam, and West Bengal, and it is estimated that about 40 million people might have been affected by severe floods, mainly in the northern states of Bihar, Assam, and West Bengal. The most affected country was Bangladesh, where one third of the country was underwater, and the estimated population potentially exposed to floods is about 30 million in Bangladesh. 

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5. Evaluation of Novel NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Aerosol Products and Assessment of Smoke Height Boundary Layer Ratio During Extreme Smoke Events in the Western USA

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD034180  

   Loría‐Salazar, S. Marcela ; Sayer, Andrew M. ; Barnes, John ; Huang, Jingting ; Flynn, Connor ; Lareau, Neil ; Lee, Jaehwa ; Lyapustin, Alexei ; Redemann, Jens ; Welton, Ellsworth J. ; et al ( May 2021 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)

   We analyze new aerosol products from NASA satellite retrievals over the western USA during August 2013, with special attention to locally generated wildfire smoke and downwind plume structures. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (Terra and Aqua Collections 6 and 6.1) and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Deep Blue (DB) and MODIS (Terra and Aqua) Multi‐Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) retrievals are evaluated against ground‐based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations. We find a significant improvement in correlation with AERONET and other metrics in the latest DB AOD (MODIS C6.1r² = 0.75, VIIRSr² = 0.79) compared to MODIS C6 (r² = 0.62). In general, MAIAC (r² = 0.84) and DB (MODIS C6.1 and VIIRS) present similar statistical evaluation metrics for the western USA and are useful tools to characterize aerosol loading associated with wildfire smoke. We also evaluate three novel NASA MODIS plume injection height (PIH) products, one from MAIAC and two from the Aerosol Single scattering albedo and layer Height Estimation (ASHE) (MODIS and VIIRS) algorithm. Both Terra and Aqua MAIAC PIHs statistically agree with ground‐based and satellite lidar observations near the fire source, as do ASHE, although the latter is sensitive to assumptions about aerosol absorption properties. We introduce a first‐order approximation Smoke Height Boundary Layer Ratio (SHBLR) to qualitatively distinguish between aerosol pollution within the planetary boundary layer and the free troposphere. We summarize the scope, limitations, and suggestions for scientific applications of surface level aerosol concentrations specific to wildfire emissions and smoke plumes using these novel NASA MODIS and VIIRS aerosol products.

    

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