skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


  • NSF Public Access
  • Search Results
  • A Dense Block Model Representing Western Continental United States Deformation for the 2023 Update to the National Seismic Hazard Model
Title: A Dense Block Model Representing Western Continental United States Deformation for the 2023 Update to the National Seismic Hazard Model
Abstract Seismic hazard assessment, such as the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), relies on estimates of fault slip rate based on geology and/or geodetic observations such as the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), including the Global Positioning System. Geodetic fault slip rates may be estimated within a 3D spherical block model, in which the crust is divided into microplates bounded by mapped faults; fault slip rates are determined by the relative rotations of adjacent microplates. Uncertainty in selecting appropriate block-bounding faults and in forming closed microplates has limited the interpretability of block models for seismic hazard modeling. By introducing an automated block closure algorithm and regularizing the resulting densely spaced block model with total variation regularization, I develop the densest and most complete block model of the western continental United States to date. The model includes 853 blocks bounded by 1017 geologically identified fault sections from the USGS NSHM Fault Sections database. Microplate rotations and fault slip rates are constrained by 4979 GNSS velocities and 1243 geologic slip rates. I identify a regularized solution that fits the GNSS velocity field with a root mean square misfit of 1.9 mm/yr and reproduces 57% of geologic slip rates within reported geologic uncertainty and model sensitivity, consistent with other geodetic-based models in this Focus Section. This block model includes slip on faults that are not included in the USGS NSHM Fault sections database (but are required to form closed blocks) for an estimate of “off-fault” deformation of 3.62×1019  N·m/yr, 56% of the total calculated moment accumulation rate in the model.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
2141593
PAR ID:
10385949
Author(s) / Creator(s):
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Seismological Research Letters
Volume:
93
Issue:
6
ISSN:
0895-0695
Page Range / eLocation ID:
3024 to 3036
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; et al (, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America)
    ABSTRACT As part of the 2022 revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022), deformation models were constructed for the upper plate faults and subduction interfaces that impact ground-shaking hazard in New Zealand. These models provide the locations, geometries, and slip rates of the earthquake-producing faults in the NZ NSHM 2022. For upper plate faults, two deformation models were developed: a geologic model derived directly from the fault geometries and geologic slip rates in the NZ Community Fault Model version 1.0 (NZ CFM v.1.0); and a geodetic model that uses the same faults and fault geometries and derives fault slip-deficit rates by inverting geodetic strain rates for back slip on those specified faults. The two upper plate deformation models have similar total moment rates, but the geodetic model has higher slip rates on low-slip-rate faults, and the geologic model has higher slip rates on higher-slip-rate faults. Two deformation models are developed for the Hikurangi–Kermadec subduction interface. The Hikurangi–Kermadec geometry is a linear blend of the previously published interface models. Slip-deficit rates on the Hikurangi portion of the deformation model are updated from the previously published block models, and two end member models are developed to represent the alternate hypotheses that the interface is either frictionally locked or creeping at the trench. The locking state in the Kermadec portion is less well constrained, and a single slip-deficit rate model is developed based on plate convergence rate and coupling considerations. This single Kermadec realization is blended with each of the two Hikurangi slip-deficit rate models to yield two overall Hikurangi–Kermadec deformation models. The Puysegur subduction interface deformation model is based on geometry taken directly from the NZ CFM v.1.0, and a slip-deficit rate derived from published geodetic plate convergence rate and interface coupling estimates. 
    more » « less
  2. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; (, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth)
    Abstract The potential for future earthquakes on faults is often inferred from inversions of geodetically derived surface velocities for locking on faults using kinematic models such as block models. This can be challenging in complex deforming zones with many closely spaced faults or where deformation is not readily described with block motions. Furthermore, surface strain rates are more directly related to coupling on faults than surface velocities. We present a methodology for estimating slip deficit rate directly from strain rate and apply it to New Zealand for the purpose of incorporating geodetic data in the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The strain rate inversions imply slightly higher slip deficit rates than the preferred geologic slip rates on sections of the major strike‐slip systems including the Alpine Fault, the Marlborough Fault System and the northern part of the North Island Fault System. Slip deficit rates are significantly lower than even the lowest geologic estimates on some strike‐slip faults in the southern North Island Fault System near Wellington. Over the entire plate boundary, geodetic slip deficit rates are systematically higher than geologic slip rates for faults slipping less than one mm/yr but lower on average for faults with slip rates between about 5 and 25 mm/yr. We show that 70%–80% of the total strain rate field can be attributed to elastic strain due to fault coupling. The remaining 20%–30% shows systematic spatial patterns of strain rate style that is often consistent with local geologic style of faulting. 
    more » « less
  3. (, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth)
    Abstract I employ an elasticity‐based method to invert a geodetically derived surface velocity field in the western US using for present‐day surface strain rate fields with uncertainties. The method uses distributed body forces in a thin elastic sheet and allows for discontinuities in velocity across creeping faults using the solution for dislocations in a thin elastic plate. I compare the strain rate fields with previously published stress orientations and moment rates from geological slip rate data and previous geodetic studies. Geologic and geodetic moment rates are calculated using slip rate and off‐fault strain rates from the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) deformation models. I find that computed total geodetic moment rates are higher than NSHM summed moment rates on faults for all regions of the western US except the highest deforming rate regions including the Western Transverse Ranges and the northern and southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) system in California. Computed geodetic moment rates are comparable to the moment rates derived from the geodetically based NSHM deformation models in all regions. I find systematic differences in orientations of maximum horizontal shortening rate and maximum horizontal compressive stress in the Pacific Northwest region and along much of the SAF system. In the Pacific Northwest, the maximum horizontal stress orientations are rotated counterclockwise 40–90° relative to the maximum horizontal strain rate directions. Along the SAF system, the maximum horizontal stresses are rotated systematically 25–40° clockwise (closer to fault normal) relative to the strain rates. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; (, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America)
    ABSTRACT Geodetic data in plate boundary zones reflect the accrual of tectonic strain and stress, which will ultimately be released in earthquakes, and so they can provide valuable insights into future seismic hazards. To incorporate geodetic measurements of contemporary deformation into the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022 (NZ NSHM 2022), we derive a range of strain-rate models from published interseismic Global Navigation Satellite Systems velocities for New Zealand. We calculate the uncertainty in strain rate excluding strain from the Taupō rift–Havre trough and Hikurangi subduction zone, which are handled separately, and the corresponding moment rates. A high shear strain rate occurs along the Alpine fault and the North Island dextral fault belt, as well as the eastern coast of the North Island. Dilatation rates are primarily contractional in the South Island and less well constrained in the North Island. Total moment accumulation derived using Kostrov-type summation varies from 0.64 to 2.93×1019  N·m/yr depending on method and parameter choices. To account for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in the strain-rate results, we use four different methods for estimating strain rate and calculate various average models and uncertainty metrics. The maximum shear strain rate is similar across all methods, whereas the dilatation rate and overall strain rate style differ more significantly. Each method provides an estimate of its own uncertainty propagated from the data uncertainties, and variability between methods provides an additional estimate of epistemic uncertainty. Epistemic uncertainty in New Zealand tends to be higher than the aleatory uncertainty estimates provided by any single method, and epistemic uncertainty on dilatation rate exceeds the aleatory uncertainty nearly everywhere. These strain-rate models were provided to the NZ NSHM 2022 team and used to develop fault-slip deficit rate models and scaled seismicity rate models. 
    more » « less
  5. ; (, Earth and Space Science)
    Abstract Geologic and geodetic observations provide constraints on tectonic and earthquake cycle kinematics. Block models offer one approach to integrating the effects of plate rotations, elastic strain accumulation, applied basal displacements, internal block strain, and idealized pressure sources. Here, we describe the construction of block models where spatially variable slip rates are parameterized by distance‐weighted eigenmodes operating over meshes of triangular dislocation elements. This dimensionally reduced model is recast as a quadratic programming problem with upper and lower bounds on both geologic fault slip rates and spatially variable slip deficit rates. We propose iterating over successive quadratic programming estimates with evolving slip rate bounds to find a solution consistent with specified coupling at all points on geometrically complex fault surfaces. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email