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Abstract Understanding the costs and the spatial distribution of health and employment outcomes of low-carbon electricity pathways is critical to enable an equitable transition. We integrate an electricity system planning model (GridPath), a health impact model (InMAP), and a multiregional input–output model to quantify China’s provincial-level impacts of electricity system decarbonization on costs, health outcomes, employment, and labor compensation. We find that even without specific CO2constraints, declining renewable energy and storage costs enable a 26% decline in CO2emissions in 2040 compared to 2020 under the Reference scenario. Compared to the Reference scenario, pursuing 2 °C and 1.5 °C compatible carbon emission targets (85% and 99% decrease in 2040 CO2emissions relative to 2020 levels, respectively) reduces air pollution-related premature deaths from electricity generation over 2020–2040 by 51% and 63%, but substantially increases annual average costs per unit of electricity demand in 2040 (21% and 39%, respectively). While the 2 °C pathway leads to a 3% increase in electricity sector-related net labor compensation, the 1.5 °C pathway results in a 19% increase in labor compensation driven by greater renewable energy deployment. Although disparities in health impacts across provinces narrow as fossil fuels phase out, disparities in labor compensation widen with wealthier East Coast provinces gaining the most in labor compensation because of materials and equipment manufacturing, and offshore wind deployment.
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Reducing CO 2 emissions by targeting the world’s hyper-polluting power plants *
Abstract Combusting fossil fuels to produce electricity is the single largest contributor to sector-level, anthropogenic carbon pollution. Because sector-wide policies are often too unwieldy to implement, however, some researchers have recommended reducing electricity-based CO2emissions by targeting the most extreme emitters of each nation’s electricity industry. Here, we use a unique international data source to measure national disproportionalities in power plant CO2emissions and estimate the fraction of each country’s electricity-based CO2emissions that would be reduced if its most profligate polluters lowered their emission intensities, switched to gas fuels, and incorporated carbon capture and storage systems. We find that countries’ disproportionalities vary greatly and have mostly grown over time. We also find that 17%–49% of the world’s CO2emissions from electricity generation could be eliminated depending on the intensity standards, fuels, or carbon capture technologies adopted by hyper-emitting plants. This suggests that policies aimed at improving the environmental performance of ‘super polluters’ are effective strategies for transitioning to decarbonized energy systems.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1824106
- PAR ID:
- 10389502
- Publisher / Repository:
- IOP Publishing
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Volume:
- 16
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 1748-9326
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- Article No. 094022
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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