The Starlink satellites launched on 3 February 2022 were lost before they fully arrived in their designated orbits. The loss was attributed to two moderate geomagnetic storms that occurred consecutively on 3–4 February. We investigate the thermospheric neutral mass density variation during these storms with the Multiscale Atmosphere‐Geospace Environment (MAGE) model, a first‐principles, fully coupled geospace model. Simulated neutral density enhancements are validated by Swarm satellite measurements at the altitude of 400–500 km. Comparison with standalone TIEGCM and empirical NRLMSIS 2.0 and DTM‐2013 models suggests better performance by MAGE in predicting the maximum density enhancement and resolving the gradual recovery process. Along the Starlink satellite orbit in the middle thermosphere (∼200 km altitude), MAGE predicts up to 150% density enhancement near the second storm peak while standalone TIEGCM, NRLMSIS 2.0, and DTM‐2013 suggest only ∼50% increase. MAGE also suggests altitudinal, longitudinal, and latitudinal variability of storm‐time percentage density enhancement due to height dependent Joule heating deposition per unit mass, thermospheric circulation changes, and traveling atmospheric disturbances. This study demonstrates that a moderate storm can cause substantial density enhancement in the middle thermosphere. Thermospheric mass density strongly depends on the strength, timing, and location of high‐latitude energy input, which cannot be fully reproduced with empirical models. A physics‐based, fully coupled geospace model that can accurately resolve the high‐latitude energy input and its variability is critical to modeling the dynamic response of thermospheric neutral density during storm time.
The upper boundary height of the traditional community general circulation model of the ionosphere‐thermosphere system is too low to be applied to the topside ionosphere/thermosphere study. In this study, the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (NCAR‐TIEGCM) was successfully extended upward by four scale heights from 400–600 km to 700–1,200 km depending on solar activity, named TIEGCM‐X. The topside ionosphere and thermosphere simulated by TIEGCM‐X agree well with the observations derived from a topside sounder and satellite drag data. In addition, the neutral density, temperature, and electron density simulated by TIEGCM‐X are morphologically consistent with the NCAR‐TIEGCM simulations before extension. The latitude‐altitude distribution of the equatorial ionization anomaly derived from TIEGCM‐X is more reasonable. During geomagnetic storm events, the thermospheric responses of TIEGCM‐X are similar to NCAR‐TIEGCM. However, the ionospheric storm effects in TIEGCM‐X are stronger than those in NCAR‐TIEGCM and are even opposites at some middle and low latitudes due to the presence of more closed magnetic field lines. Defense Meteorological Satellite Program observations prove that the ionospheric storm effect of TIEGCM‐X is more reasonable. The well‐validated TIEGCM‐X has significant potential applications in ionospheric/thermospheric studies, such as the responses to storms, low‐latitude dynamics, and data assimilation.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 2033787
- PAR ID:
- 10390068
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Space Weather
- Volume:
- 20
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 1542-7390
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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