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1. Graph-Guided Regularized Regression of Pacific Ocean Climate Variables to Increase Predictive Skill of Southwestern U.S. Winter Precipitation

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0079.1  

   Stevens, Abby ; Willett, Rebecca ; Mamalakis, Antonios ; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi ; Tejedor, Alejandro ; Randerson, James T. ; Smyth, Padhraic ; Wright, Stephen ( January 2021 , Journal of Climate)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract Understanding the physical drivers of seasonal hydroclimatic variability and improving predictive skill remains a challenge with important socioeconomic and environmental implications for many regions around the world. Physics-based deterministic models show limited ability to predict precipitation as the lead time increases, due to imperfect representation of physical processes and incomplete knowledge of initial conditions. Similarly, statistical methods drawing upon established climate teleconnections have low prediction skill due to the complex nature of the climate system. Recently, promising data-driven approaches have been proposed, but they often suffer from overparameterization and overfitting due to the short observational record, and they often do not account for spatiotemporal dependencies among covariates (i.e., predictors such as sea surface temperatures). This study addresses these challenges via a predictive model based on a graph-guided regularizer that simultaneously promotes similarity of predictive weights for highly correlated covariates and enforces sparsity in the covariate domain. This approach both decreases the effective dimensionality of the problem and identifies the most predictive features without specifying them a priori. We use large ensemble simulations from a climate model to construct this regularizer, reducing the structural uncertainty in the estimation. We apply the learned model to predict winter precipitation in the southwestern United States using sea surface temperatures over the entire Pacific basin, and demonstrate its superiority compared to other regularization approaches and statistical models informed by known teleconnections. Our results highlight the potential to combine optimally the space–time structure of predictor variables learned from climate models with new graph-based regularizers to improve seasonal prediction. 

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2. Explainable Boosting Machines for Slope Failure Spatial Predictive Modeling

   https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13244991  

   Maxwell, Aaron E. ; Sharma, Maneesh ; Donaldson, Kurt A. ( December 2021 , Remote sensing)

   Machine learning (ML) methods, such as artificial neural networks (ANN), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), random forests (RF), support vector machines (SVM), and boosted decision trees (DTs), may offer stronger predictive performance than more traditional, parametric methods, such as linear regression, multiple linear regression, and logistic regression (LR), for specific mapping and modeling tasks. However, this increased performance is often accompanied by increased model complexity and decreased interpretability, resulting in critiques of their “black box” nature, which highlights the need for algorithms that can offer both strong predictive performance and interpretability. This is especially true when the global model and predictions for specific data points need to be explainable in order for the model to be of use. Explainable boosting machines (EBM), an augmentation and refinement of generalize additive models (GAMs), has been proposed as an empirical modeling method that offers both interpretable results and strong predictive performance. The trained model can be graphically summarized as a set of functions relating each predictor variable to the dependent variable along with heat maps representing interactions between selected pairs of predictor variables. In this study, we assess EBMs for predicting the likelihood or probability of slope failure occurrence based on digital terrain characteristics in four separate Major Land Resource Areas (MLRAs) in the state of West Virginia, USA and compare the results to those obtained with LR, kNN, RF, and SVM. EBM provided predictive accuracies comparable to RF and SVM and better than LR and kNN. The generated functions and visualizations for each predictor variable and included interactions between pairs of predictor variables, estimation of variable importance based on average mean absolute scores, and provided scores for each predictor variable for new predictions add interpretability, but additional work is needed to quantify how these outputs may be impacted by variable correlation, inclusion of interaction terms, and large feature spaces. Further exploration of EBM is merited for geohazard mapping and modeling in particular and spatial predictive mapping and modeling in general, especially when the value or use of the resulting predictions would be greatly enhanced by improved interpretability globally and availability of prediction explanations at each cell or aggregating unit within the mapped or modeled extent. 

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3. A Survey of Uncertainty Quantification in Machine Learning for Space Weather Prediction

   https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences12010027  

   Siddique, Talha ; Mahmud, Md ; Keesee, Amy ; Ngwira, Chigomezyo ; Connor, Hyunju ( January 2022 , Geosciences)

   With the availability of data and computational technologies in the modern world, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a preferred methodology for data analysis and prediction. While ML holds great promise, the results from such models are not fully unreliable due to the challenges introduced by uncertainty. An ML model generates an optimal solution based on its training data. However, if the uncertainty in the data and the model parameters are not considered, such optimal solutions have a high risk of failure in actual world deployment. This paper surveys the different approaches used in ML to quantify uncertainty. The paper also exhibits the implications of quantifying uncertainty when using ML by performing two case studies with space physics in focus. The first case study consists of the classification of auroral images in predefined labels. In the second case study, the horizontal component of the perturbed magnetic field measured at the Earth’s surface was predicted for the study of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) by training the model using time series data. In both cases, a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) was trained to generate predictions, along with epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Finally, the pros and cons of both Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) models and Bayesian Deep Learning (DL) are weighed. The paper also provides recommendations for the models that need exploration, focusing on space weather prediction. 

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4. Integrative multi‐view regression: Bridging group‐sparse and low‐rank models

   Gen, L. ; Liu, X. ( November 2018 , Biometrics)

   Multi‐view data have been routinely collected in various fields of science and engineering. A general problem is to study the predictive association between multivariate responses and multi‐view predictor sets, all of which can be of high dimensionality. It is likely that only a few views are relevant to prediction, and the predictors within each relevant view contribute to the prediction collectively rather than sparsely. We cast this new problem under the familiar multivariate regression framework and propose an integrative reduced‐rank regression (iRRR), where each view has its own low‐rank coefficient matrix. As such, latent features are extracted from each view in a supervised fashion. For model estimation, we develop a convex composite nuclear norm penalization approach, which admits an efficient algorithm via alternating direction method of multipliers. Extensions to non‐Gaussian and incomplete data are discussed. Theoretically, we derive non‐asymptotic oracle bounds of iRRR under a restricted eigenvalue condition. Our results recover oracle bounds of several special cases of iRRR including Lasso, group Lasso, and nuclear norm penalized regression. Therefore, iRRR seamlessly bridges group‐sparse and low‐rank methods and can achieve substantially faster convergence rate under realistic settings of multi‐view learning. Simulation studies and an application in the Longitudinal Studies of Aging further showcase the efficacy of the proposed methods. 

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5. Integrative Multi-View Regression: Bridging Group-Sparse and Low-Rank Models

   https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.13006  

   Li, Gen ; Liu, Xiaokang ; Chen, Kun ( November 2018 , Biometrics)

   Multi-view data have been routinely collected in various fields of science and engineering. A general problem is to study the predictive association between multivariate responses and multi-view predictor sets, all of which can be of high dimensionality. It is likely that only a few views are relevant to prediction, and the predictors within each relevant view contribute to the prediction collectively rather than sparsely. We cast this new problem under the familiar multivariate regression framework and propose an integrative reduced-rank regression (iRRR), where each view has its own low-rank coefficient matrix. As such, latent features are extracted from each view in a supervised fashion. For model estimation, we develop a convex composite nuclear norm penalization approach, which admits an efficient algorithm via alternating direction method of multipliers. Extensions to non-Gaussian and incomplete data are discussed. Theoretically, we derive non-asymptotic oracle bounds of iRRR under a restricted eigenvalue condition. Our results recover oracle bounds of several special cases of iRRR including Lasso, group Lasso, and nuclear norm penalized regression. Therefore, iRRR seamlessly bridges group-sparse and low-rank methods and can achieve substantially faster convergence rate under realistic settings of multi-view learning. Simulation studies and an application in the Longitudinal Studies of Aging further showcase the efficacy of the proposed methods.

    

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