In tropical cyclones (TCs), the peak wind speed is typically found near the top of the boundary layer (approximately 0.5–1 km). Recently, it was shown that in a few observed TCs, the wind speed within the eyewall can increase with height within the midtroposphere, resulting in a secondary local maximum at 4–5 km. This study presents additional evidence of such an atypical structure, using dropsonde and Doppler radar observations from Hurricane Patricia (2015). Near peak intensity, Patricia exhibited an absolute wind speed maximum at 5–6-km height, along with a weaker boundary layer maximum. Idealized simulations and a diagnostic boundary layer model are used to investigate the dynamics that result in these atypical wind profiles, which only occur in TCs that are very intense (surface wind speed > 50 m s−1) and/or very small (radius of maximum winds < 20 km). The existence of multiple maxima in wind speed is a consequence of an inertial oscillation that is driven ultimately by surface friction. The vertical oscillation in the radial velocity results in a series of unbalanced tangential wind jets, whose magnitude and structure can manifest as a midlevel wind speed maximum. The wavelength of the inertial oscillation increases with vertical mixing length l∞in a turbulence parameterization, and no midlevel wind speed maximum occurs when l∞is large. Consistent with theory, the wavelength in the simulations scales with (2 K/ I)1/2, where K is the (vertical) turbulent diffusivity, and I2is the inertial stability. This scaling is used to explain why only small and/or strong TCs exhibit midlevel wind speed maxima.
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Ensemble clustering analysis was performed to explore the role of the initial hurricane vortex‐scale wind structure in the prediction of the intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015). Convection‐allowing ensemble forecasts were classified into spin‐down (SPD) and spin‐up (SPU) groups. Specifically, 10 members with an intensification rate >0 m/s and 10 members with an intensification rate <0 m/s for the first 6 hr were defined as the SPD and SPU members. The result showed that the tangential winds outside the inner‐core region in the SPD members were weaker compared to the SPU members. Additionally, the SPD members had a weaker inflow near the surface and a weaker outflow between the heights of 8 and 12 km than the SPU members. The SPU members showed more significant azimuthal asymmetry than the SPD members in the surface, tangential and radial winds. Wavenumber analysis showed that the low wavenumber components dominated the differences between the SPD and SPU members. Numerical experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis generated by the clustering analysis. It was found that the storm's maximum wind speed (MWS) intensified during the first 6 hr of the model forecast if only the low wavenumber structure in the SPU members was included in the initial conditions, whereas it decayed during the first 6 hr if only the low wavenumber structure in the SPD members was included. This result confirms that the low wavenumber structure of the initial wind analyses was important in predicting the intensity changes of Hurricane Patricia (2015).
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10395655
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Volume:
- 128
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 2169-897X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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