skip to main content


Title: The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures
Abstract Using a structural life-cycle model, we quantify the heterogeneous impact of school closures during the corona crisis on children affected at different ages and coming from households with different parental characteristics. In the model, public investment through schooling is combined with parental time and resource investments in the production of child human capital at different stages in the children’s development process. We quantitatively characterise the long-term consequences from a COVID-19-induced loss of schooling, and find average losses in the present discounted value of lifetime earnings of the affected children of $2.1\%$, as well as welfare losses equivalent to about $1.2\%$ of permanent consumption. Because of self-productivity in the human capital production function, younger children are hurt more by the school closures than older children. The negative impact of the crisis on children’s welfare is especially severe for those with parents with low educational attainment and low assets.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1757084
NSF-PAR ID:
10396328
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
The Economic Journal
Volume:
132
Issue:
645
ISSN:
0013-0133
Page Range / eLocation ID:
1647 to 1683
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. Abstract Existing scholarship reveals important and competing influences of parental migration on children's educational trajectories. On the one hand, in the short term, left-behind children commonly take on additional housework and sometimes place less emphasis on education if they aspire to follow in their parents' migratory footsteps. On the other hand, parental migration often leads to monetary transfers (remittances), which reduces financial pressure on sending households and can strengthen educational aspirations among children left behind. Because previous studies examined these effects on children still completing their educations, the cumulative impact of parental migration on children's educational attainment remains uncertain. In this study, we use retrospective life history data from the Mexican Migration Project to link parental migrations occurring during childhood with children's educational attainment measured in adulthood. Using a novel counterfactual approach, we find that parental migration during childhood is associated with increased years of schooling and higher probabilities of completing lower-secondary school, entering upper-secondary school, and completing upper-secondary school. These associations were strongest among children whose parents did not complete primary school and those living in rural areas. Results from a placebo test suggest that these positive associations cannot be attributed to unobserved household characteristics related to parental migration, which supports a causal interpretation of our main findings. Thus, our analysis suggests that, on average, and particularly among more-disadvantaged households, the long-term educational benefits associated with parental migration outweigh short-term disruptions and strain associated with parental absence. 
    more » « less
  2. Research on the societal costs of disaster-related US school closures has focused, and due to COVID-19 will likely continue to focus, on pandemics, with very limited research on closures from natural hazards. This is surprising given that school closures occur frequently to protect children, teachers, and staff pre-event as well as post-disaster to convert facilities into emergency shelters, etc. This study investigates the secondary effects from post-flooding, temporary school closures after the catastrophic 2015 flash flood in Richland County, South Carolina. Lost productivity from school closures was quantified using the Human Capital Method. Out of the 208 completed surveys, 75% of households had children that missed school. Post-stratifying survey results on race produced an average of $437 in lost productivity due to school closures and an overall $2175 in lost productivity due to flood-related impacts in general. Expressed in FEMA benefit-cost analysis terms, our study shows that schools have a standard value of $215 per household and per day for the unweighted sample ($180 for the race-weighted sample). Furthermore, households' disutility for a late start is almost as great as their disutility for a school closure. These exploratory findings suggest that unplanned school closures should be minimized, and community characteristics carefully considered to avoid unintended socioeconomic consequences. 
    more » « less
  3. Abstract Objectives

    We assessed associations between child stunting, recovery, and faltering with schooling and human capital skills in a native Amazonian society of horticulturalists‐foragers (Tsimane').

    Methods

    We used cross‐sectional data (2008) from 1262 children aged 6 to 16 years in 53 villages to assess contemporaneous associations between three height categories: stunted (height‐for‐age Z score, HAZ<–2), moderately stunted (–2 ≤ HAZ≤–1), and nonstunted (HAZ>–1), and three categories of human capital: completed grades of schooling, test‐based academic skills (math, reading, writing), and local plant knowledge. We used annual longitudinal data (2002–2010) from all children (n = 853) in 13 villages to estimate the association between changes in height categories between the first and last years of measure and schooling and academic skills.

    Results

    Stunting was associated with 0.4 fewer completed grades of schooling (∼24% less) and with 13–15% lower probability of showing any writing or math skills. Moderate stunting was associated with ∼20% lower scores in local plant knowledge and 9% lower probability of showing writing skills, but was not associated with schooling or math and writing skills. Compared with nonstunted children, children who became stunted had 18–21% and 15–21% lower probabilities of showing math and writing skills, and stunted children had 0.4 fewer completed grades of schooling. Stunted children who recovered showed human capital outcomes that were indistinguishable from nonstunted children.

    Conclusions

    The results confirm adverse associations between child stunting and human capital skills. Predictors of growth recovery and faltering can affect human capital outcomes, even in a remote, economically self‐sufficient society.

     
    more » « less
  4. Research on social, emotional, and academic development of children often notes the critical role of parents. Yet, how parents perceive and engage with children’s reactions to difficulty and perceived failure, to then shape their perspective and engagement with learning remains under investigated. The current study explored children and parents’ perceptions of and reactions to frustration and failure within an out-of-school, home-based engineering program. Specifically, we asked 1) How was failure perceived by participating families? and 2) What was the subsequent action/reaction to that failure? Data were derived from post-program interviews with children and parents who participated in a home-based, elementary engineering program involving take-home kits and self-identified engineering projects. Findings derived from descriptive qualitative methods and thematic analysis illustrated development of parent thinking around failure and frustration, both within themselves and their reactions to seeing such emotions in their children. Analysis further revealed how such emotions emerge within their children and impact their experiences. These findings shed light on ways child-parent engagement and the tactics employed by parents may influence a child’s perseverance and willingness to work through difficulty. This research represents an entry point for investigating how parents perceive and react to failures and challenges, and how these reactions shape their communication around failure with their children. Such parental reactions and communication may shape children’s mindset development, perspectives, and engagement. Implications for family engagement and influence on children’s learning through academic emotions in STEM and engineering are discussed. 
    more » « less
  5. Cortesi, Paolo Angelo (Ed.)
    The COVID-19 pandemic has affected millions of people around the world. In Colombia, 1.65 million cases and 43,495 deaths were reported in 2020. Schools were closed in many places around the world to slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In Bogotá, Colombia, most of the public schools were closed from March 2020 until the end of the year. School closures can exacerbate poverty, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. To reconcile these two priorities in health and fighting poverty, we estimated the impact of school reopening for in-person instruction in 2021. We used an agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission calibrated to the daily number of deaths. The model includes schools that represent private and public schools in terms of age, enrollment, location, and size. We simulated school reopening at different capacities, assuming a high level of face-mask use, and evaluated the impact on the number of deaths in the city. We also evaluated the impact of reopening schools based on grade and multidimensional poverty index. We found that school at 35% capacity, assuming face-mask adherence at 75% in>8 years of age, had a small impact on the number of deaths reported in the city during a third wave. The increase in deaths was smallest when only pre-kinder was opened, and largest when secondary school was opened. At larger capacities, the impact on the number of deaths of opening pre-kinder was below 10%. In contrast, reopening other grades above 50% capacity substantially increased the number of deaths. Reopening schools based on their multidimensional poverty index resulted in a similar impact, irrespective of the level of poverty of the schools that were reopened. The impact of schools reopening was lower for pre-kinder grades and the magnitude of additional deaths associated with school reopening can be minimized by adjusting capacity in older grades. 
    more » « less