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Nonparametric regression on complex domains has been a challenging task as most existing methods, such as ensemble models based on binary decision trees, are not designed to account for intrinsic geometries and domain boundaries. This article proposes a Bayesian additive regression spanning trees (BAST) model for nonparametric regression on manifolds, with an emphasis on complex constrained domains or irregularly shaped spaces embedded in Euclidean spaces. Our model is built upon a random spanning tree manifold partition model as each weak learner, which is capable of capturing any irregularly shaped spatially contiguous partitions while respecting intrinsic geometries and domain boundary constraints. Utilizing many nice properties of spanning tree structures, we design an efficient Bayesian inference algorithm. Equipped with a soft prediction scheme, BAST is demonstrated to significantly outperform other competing methods in simulation experiments and in an application to the chlorophyll data in Aral Sea, due to its strong local adaptivity to different levels of smoothness.
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Bayesian Regression Tree Ensembles that Adapt to Smoothness and Sparsity
Summary Ensembles of decision trees are a useful tool for obtaining flexible estimates of regression functions. Examples of these methods include gradient-boosted decision trees, random forests and Bayesian classification and regression trees. Two potential shortcomings of tree ensembles are their lack of smoothness and their vulnerability to the curse of dimensionality. We show that these issues can be overcome by instead considering sparsity inducing soft decision trees in which the decisions are treated as probabilistic. We implement this in the context of the Bayesian additive regression trees framework and illustrate its promising performance through testing on benchmark data sets. We provide strong theoretical support for our methodology by showing that the posterior distribution concentrates at the minimax rate (up to a logarithmic factor) for sparse functions and functions with additive structures in the high dimensional regime where the dimensionality of the covariate space is allowed to grow nearly exponentially in the sample size. Our method also adapts to the unknown smoothness and sparsity levels, and can be implemented by making minimal modifications to existing Bayesian additive regression tree algorithms.
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- PAR ID:
- 10397803
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology
- Volume:
- 80
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 1369-7412
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 1087-1110
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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