We propose a general method for constructing confidence sets and hypothesis tests that have finite-sample guarantees without regularity conditions. We refer to such procedures as “universal.” The method is very simple and is based on a modified version of the usual likelihood-ratio statistic that we call “the split likelihood-ratio test” (split LRT) statistic. The (limiting) null distribution of the classical likelihood-ratio statistic is often intractable when used to test composite null hypotheses in irregular statistical models. Our method is especially appealing for statistical inference in these complex setups. The method we suggest works for any parametric model and also for some nonparametric models, as long as computing a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) is feasible under the null. Canonical examples arise in mixture modeling and shape-constrained inference, for which constructing tests and confidence sets has been notoriously difficult. We also develop various extensions of our basic methods. We show that in settings when computing the MLE is hard, for the purpose of constructing valid tests and intervals, it is sufficient to upper bound the maximum likelihood. We investigate some conditions under which our methods yield valid inferences under model misspecification. Further, the split LRT can be used with profile likelihoods to deal with nuisance parameters, and it can also be run sequentially to yield anytime-valid P values and confidence sequences. Finally, when combined with the method of sieves, it can be used to perform model selection with nested model classes.
The paper considers the problem of hypothesis testing and confidence intervals in high dimensional proportional hazards models. Motivated by a geometric projection principle, we propose a unified likelihood ratio inferential framework, including score, Wald and partial likelihood ratio statistics for hypothesis testing. Without assuming model selection consistency, we derive the asymptotic distributions of these test statistics, establish their semiparametric optimality and conduct power analysis under Pitman alternatives. We also develop new procedures to construct pointwise confidence intervals for the baseline hazard function and conditional hazard function. Simulation studies show that all tests proposed perform well in controlling type I errors. Moreover, the partial likelihood ratio test is empirically more powerful than the other tests. The methods proposed are illustrated by an example of a gene expression data set.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10397807
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology
- Volume:
- 79
- Issue:
- 5
- ISSN:
- 1369-7412
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 1415-1437
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 204–221; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada
