Planktonic foraminifera are one of the primary calcifiers in the modern ocean, contributing 23%–56% of total global pelagic carbonate production. However, a mechanistic understanding of how physiology and environmental conditions control their abundance and distribution is lacking, hindering the projection of the impact of future climate change. This understanding is important, not only for ecosystem dynamics, but also for marine carbon cycling because of foraminifera's key role in carbonate production. Here we present and apply a global trait‐based ecosystem model of non‐spinose planktonic foraminifera (‘ForamEcoGEnIE’) to assess their ecology and global distribution under future climate change. ForamEcoGEnIE considers the traits of calcium carbonate production, shell size, and foraging. It captures the main characteristic of biogeographical patterns of non‐spinose species – with maximum biomass concentrations found in mid‐ to high‐latitude waters and upwelling areas. The model also reproduces the magnitude of global carbonate production relatively well, although the foraminifera standing stock is systematically overestimated. In response to future scenarios of rising atmospheric CO2(RCP6 and RCP8.5), on a regional scale, the modelled foraminifera biomass and export flux increases in the subpolar regions of the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean while it decreases everywhere else. In the absence of adaptation, the biomass decline in the low‐latitude South Pacific suggests extirpation. The model projects a global average loss in non‐spinose foraminifera biomass between 8% (RCP6) and 11% (RCP8.5) by 2050 and between 14% and 18% by 2100 as a response to ocean warming and associated changes in primary production and ecological dynamics. Global calcium carbonate flux associated with non‐spinose foraminifera declines by 13%–18% by 2100. That decline can slow down the ocean carbonate pump and create short‐term positive feedback on rising atmospheric
Planktonic calcifying organisms play a key role in regulating ocean carbonate chemistry and atmospheric CO2. Surprisingly, references to the absolute and relative contribution of these organisms to calcium carbonate production are lacking. Here we report quantification of pelagic calcium carbonate production in the North Pacific, providing new insights on the contribution of the three main planktonic calcifying groups. Our results show that coccolithophores dominate the living calcium carbonate (CaCO3) standing stock, with coccolithophore calcite comprising ~90% of total CaCO3production, and pteropods and foraminifera playing a secondary role. We show that pelagic CaCO3production is higher than the sinking flux of CaCO3at 150 and 200 m at ocean stations ALOHA and PAPA, implying that a large portion of pelagic calcium carbonate is remineralised within the photic zone; this extensive shallow dissolution explains the apparent discrepancy between previous estimates of CaCO3production derived from satellite observations/biogeochemical modeling versus estimates from shallow sediment traps. We suggest future changes in the CaCO3cycle and its impact on atmospheric CO2will largely depend on how the poorly-understood processes that determine whether CaCO3is remineralised in the photic zone or exported to depth respond to anthropogenic warming and acidification.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1756517
- PAR ID:
- 10397972
- Publisher / Repository:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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