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Title: Voting Rights, Markov Chains, and Optimization by Short Bursts
Abstract

Finding outlying elementsin probability distributions can be a hard problem. Taking a real example from Voting Rights Act enforcement, we consider the problem of maximizing the number of simultaneous majority-minority districts in a political districting plan. An unbiased random walk on districting plans is unlikely to find plans that approach this maximum. A common search approach is to use abiased random walk: preferentially select districting plans with more majority-minority districts. Here, we present a third option, calledshort bursts, in which an unbiased random walk is performed for a small number of steps (called theburst length), then re-started from the most extreme plan that was encountered in the last burst. We give empirical evidence that short-burst runs outperform biased random walks for the problem of maximizing the number of majority-minority districts, and that there are many values of burst length for which we see this improvement. Abstracting from our use case, we also consider short bursts where the underlying state space is a line with various probability distributions, and then explore some features of more complicated state spaces and how these impact the effectiveness of short bursts.

 
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NSF-PAR ID:
10399864
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ;
Publisher / Repository:
Springer Science + Business Media
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability
Volume:
25
Issue:
1
ISSN:
1387-5841
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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