Abstract Understanding the community ecology of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, and how it may shift transmission risk as it responds to environmental change, has become a central focus in disease ecology. Yet, it has been challenging to link the ecology of disease with reported human incidence. Here, we bridge the gap between local-scale community ecology and large-scale disease epidemiology, drawing from a priori knowledge of tick-pathogen-host ecology to model spatially-explicit Lyme disease (LD) risk, and human Lyme disease incidence (LDI) in California. We first use a species distribution modeling approach to model disease risk with variables capturing climate, vegetation, and ecology of key reservoir host species, and host species richness. We then use our modeled disease risk to predict human disease incidence at the zip code level across California. Our results suggest the ecology of key reservoir hosts—particularly dusky-footed woodrats—is central to disease risk posed by ticks, but that host community richness is not strongly associated with tick infection. Predicted disease risk, which is most strongly influenced by the ecology of dusky-footed woodrats, in turn is a strong predictor of human LDI. This relationship holds in the Wildland-Urban Interface, but not in open access public lands, and is stronger in northern California than in the state as a whole. This suggests peridomestic exposure to infected ticks may be more important to LD epidemiology in California than recreational exposure, and underlines the importance of the community ecology of LD in determining human transmission risk throughout this LD endemic region of far western North America. More targeted tick and pathogen surveillance, coupled with studies of human and tick behavior could improve understanding of key risk factors and inform public health interventions. Moreover, longitudinal surveillance data could further improve forecasts of disease risk in response to global environmental change.
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Estimating the distribution of Oryzomys palustris , a potential key host in expanding rickettsial tick‐borne disease risk
Increasingly, geographic approaches to assessing the risk of tick‐borne diseases are being used to inform public health decision‐making and surveillance efforts. The distributions of key tick species of medical importance are often modeled as a function of environmental factors, using niche modeling approaches to capture habitat suitability. However, this is often disconnected from the potential distribution of key host species, which may play an important role in the actual transmission cycle and risk potential in expanding tick‐borne disease risk. Using species distribution modeling, we explore the potential geographic range of
- Award ID(s):
- 2016265
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10401979
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecosphere
- Volume:
- 14
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2150-8925
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Background We conducted a large-scale, passive regional survey of ticks associated with wildlife of the eastern United States. Our primary goals were to better assess the current geographical distribution of exotic
Haemaphysalis longicornis and to identify potential wild mammalian and avian host species. However, this large-scale survey also provided valuable information regarding the distribution and host associations for many other important tick species that utilize wildlife as hosts.Methods Ticks were opportunistically collected by cooperating state and federal wildlife agencies. All ticks were placed in the supplied vials and host information was recorded, including host species, age, sex, examination date, location (at least county and state), and estimated tick burden. All ticks were identified to species using morphology, and suspect
H. longicornis were confirmed through molecular techniques.Results In total, 1940 hosts were examined from across 369 counties from 23 states in the eastern USA. From these submissions, 20,626 ticks were collected and identified belonging to 11 different species. Our passive surveillance efforts detected exotic
H. longicornis from nine host species from eight states. Notably, some of the earliest detections ofH. longicornis in the USA were collected from wildlife through this passive surveillance network. In addition, numerous new county reports were generated forAmblyomma americanum ,Amblyomma maculatum ,Dermacentor albipictus ,Dermacentor variabilis , andIxodes scapularis. Conclusions This study provided data on ticks collected from animals from 23 different states in the eastern USA between 2010 and 2021, with the primary goal of better characterizing the distribution and host associations of the exotic tick
H. longicornis; however, new distribution data on tick species of veterinary or medical importance were also obtained. Collectively, our passive surveillance has detected numerous new county reports forH. longicornis as well asI. scapularis. Our study utilizing passive wildlife surveillance for ticks across the eastern USA is an effective method for surveying a diversity of wildlife host species, allowing us to better collect data on current tick distributions relevant to human and animal health. -
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Abstract Understanding seasonal patterns of activity, or phenology, of vector species is fundamental to determining seasonality of disease risk and epidemics of vector‐borne disease. Spatiotemporal variation in abiotic conditions can influence variation in phenological patterns and life history events, which can dramatically influence the ecological role and human impact of a species. For arthropod vectors of human diseases such as ticks, these phenological patterns determine human exposure risk, yet how abiotic conditions interact to determine suitable conditions for host‐seeking of vector species is difficult to disentangle.
Here, we use MaxEnt to model spatial patterns and differences in host‐seeking phenology of the western blacklegged tick (
Ixodes pacificus ) in California using spatially and temporally refined adult tick occurrence data and similarly refined climate and environmental data. We empirically validate the model using phenological data from field studies conducted at sites across California's latitudinal gradient.We find adult tick host‐seeking activity varies substantially throughout the year, as well as across the large latitudinal gradient in the state. Suitable conditions for host‐seeking are found earlier in fall and later in the spring in northern than in southern California. These seasonal patterns are primarily associated with monthly precipitation, minimum winter temperature, and winter precipitation, with maximum monthly temperature possibly playing a more prominent role in limiting host‐seeking activity earlier in the spring in southern than northern California.
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Amblyomma maculatum (Gulf Coast tick), and Dermacentor andersoni (Rocky Mountain wood tick) are two North American ticks that transmit spotted fevers associated Rickettsia . Amblyomma maculatum transmits Rickettsia parkeri and Francisella tularensis , while D. andersoni transmits R. rickettsii , Anaplasma marginale , Coltivirus (Colorado tick fever virus), and F. tularensis . Increases in temperature causes mild winters and more extreme dry periods during summers, which will affect tick populations in unknown ways. Here, we used ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the potential geographic distributions of these two medically important vector species in North America under current condition and then transfer those models to the future under different future climate scenarios with special interest in highlighting new potential expansion areas. Current model predictions for A. maculatum showed suitable areas across the southern and Midwest United States, and east coast, western and southern Mexico. For D. andersoni , our models showed broad suitable areas across northwestern United States. New potential for range expansions was anticipated for both tick species northward in response to climate change, extending across the Midwest and New England for A. maculatum , and still farther north into Canada for D. andersoni .more » « less
