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Abstract Terrestrial planets in the habitable zone (HZ) of Sun-like stars are priority targets for detection and observation by the next generation of space telescopes. Earth's long-term habitability may have been tied to the geological carbon cycle, a process critically facilitated by plate tectonics. In the modern Earth, plate motion corresponds to a mantle convection regime called mobile lid. The alternate, stagnant-lid regime is found on Mars and Venus, which may have lacked strong enough weathering feedback to sustain surface liquid water over geological timescales if initially present. Constraining observational strategies able to infer the most common regime in terrestrial exoplanets requires quantitative predictions of the atmospheric composition of planets in either regime. We use end-member models of volcanic outgassing and crust weathering for the stagnant- and mobile-lid convection regimes, which we couple to models of atmospheric chemistry and climate and ocean chemistry to simulate the atmospheric evolution of these worlds in the HZ. In our simulations under the two alternate regimes, we find that the fraction of planets possessing climates consistent with surface liquid water is virtually the same. Despite this unexpected similarity, we predict that a mission capable of detecting atmospheric CO2abundance above 0.1 bar in 25 terrestrial exoplanets is extremely likely (≥95% of samples) to infer the dominant interior convection regime in that sample with strong evidence (10:1 odds). This offers guidance for the specifications of the Habitable Worlds Observatory NASA concept mission and other future missions capable of probing samples of habitable exoplanets.
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Terminator Habitability: The Case for Limited Water Availability on M-dwarf Planets
Abstract Rocky planets orbiting M-dwarf stars are among the most promising and abundant astronomical targets for detecting habitable climates. Planets in the M-dwarf habitable zone are likely synchronously rotating, such that we expect significant day–night temperature differences and potentially limited fractional habitability. Previous studies have focused on scenarios where fractional habitability is confined to the substellar or “eye” region, but in this paper we explore the possibility of planets with terminator habitability, defined by the existence of a habitable band at the transition between a scorching dayside and a glacial nightside. Using a global climate model, we show that for water-limited planets it is possible to have scorching temperatures in the “eye” and freezing temperatures on the nightside, while maintaining a temperate climate in the terminator region, due to reduced atmospheric energy transport. On water-rich planets, however, increasing the stellar flux leads to increased atmospheric energy transport and a reduction in day–night temperature differences, such that the terminator does not remain habitable once the dayside temperatures approach runaway or moist greenhouse limits. We also show that while water-abundant simulations may result in larger fractional habitability, they are vulnerable to water loss through cold trapping on the nightside surface or atmospheric water vapor escape, suggesting that even if planets were formed with abundant water, their climates could become water-limited and subject to terminator habitability.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1753373
- PAR ID:
- 10401997
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.3847
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- The Astrophysical Journal
- Volume:
- 945
- Issue:
- 2
- ISSN:
- 0004-637X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: Article No. 161
- Size(s):
- Article No. 161
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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