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Abstract Large volcanic eruptions drive significant climate perturbations through major anomalies in radiative fluxes and the resulting widespread cooling of the surface and upper ocean. Recent studies suggest that these eruptions also drive important variability in air‐sea carbon and oxygen fluxes. By simulating the Earth system using two initial‐condition large ensembles, with and without the aerosol forcing associated with the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in June 1991, we isolate the impact of this volcanic event on physical and biogeochemical properties of the ocean. The Mt. Pinatubo eruption forced significant anomalies in surface fluxes and the ocean interior inventories of heat, oxygen, and carbon. Pinatubo‐driven changes persist for multiple years in the upper ocean and permanently modify the ocean's heat, oxygen, and carbon inventories. Positive anomalies in oxygen concentrations emerge immediately post‐eruption and penetrate into the deep ocean. In contrast, carbon anomalies intensify in the upper ocean over several years post‐eruption, and are largely confined to the upper 150 m. In the tropics and northern high latitudes, the change in oxygen is dominated by surface cooling and subsequent ventilation to mid‐depths, while the carbon anomaly is associated with solubility changes and eruption‐generated El Niño—Southern Oscillation variability. We do not find significant impact of Pinatubo on oxygen or carbon fluxes in the Southern Ocean; but this may be due to Southern Hemisphere aerosol forcing being underestimated in Community Earth System Model 1 simulations.
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The Climate Response to the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption Does Not Constrain Climate Sensitivity
Abstract The climate response to the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption is analyzed using large ensembles of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) historical simulations. In contrast to previous work, we find that standard measures of the global temperature response to volcanic forcing are not significantly correlated with climate sensitivity across models. Isolating the shortwave response due to non‐cloud effects does not improve the correlation with climate sensitivity. Earlier constraints on climate sensitivity based on the response to Mt. Pinatubo are consistent with having arisen by chance because of the small size of the ensembles used. Our results suggest that the response to Mt. Pinatubo cannot be used to constrain the climate sensitivity to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, as has been proposed, because the radiative feedbacks in response to volcanic eruptions are not well correlated with the feedbacks governing the long‐term response to greenhouse gas forcing.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1752796
- PAR ID:
- 10404390
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 50
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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