Observations of historical tsunami earthquakes reveal that ruptures of these earthquakes propagate slowly at shallow depth with longer duration, depletion in high-frequency radiation and larger discrepancy of Mw–Ms than ordinary megathrust earthquakes. They can effectively generate tsunami and lead to huge damage to regional populated areas near the coast. In this study, we use a recently developed dynamic earthquake simulator to explore tsunami earthquake generation from a physics-based modelling point of view. We build a shallow-dipping subduction zone model in which locally locked, unstable patches (asperities) are distributed on a conditionally stable subduction interface at shallow depth. The dynamic earthquake simulator captures both quasi-static and dynamic processes of earthquake cycles. We find that earthquakes can nucleate on these asperities and propagate into the surrounding conditionally stable zone at slow speeds, generating tsunami earthquakes. A high normal stress asperity, representing a subducted seamount, can act as an asperity in some events but as a barrier in other events over multiple earthquake cycles. Low normal stress asperities typically act as asperities in tsunami earthquakes. The degree of velocity-weakening in the conditionally stable zone, which may sustain rupture at different speeds or stop rupture, is critical for tsunami earthquake generation and affects its recurrence interval. Distributed asperities may rupture in isolated events separated by tens of years, or in a sequence of events separated by hours to days, or in one large event in a cascade fashion, demonstrating complex interactions among them. The recurrence interval on a high normal stress asperity is much larger than that on low normal stress asperities. These modelling results shed lights on the observations from historical tsunami earthquakes, including the 1994 and 2006 Java tsunami earthquakes and 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake.
- Award ID(s):
- 2147340
- PAR ID:
- 10415115
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Seismological Research Letters
- Volume:
- 94
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0895-0695
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 206 to 216
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
SUMMARY -
Abstract Slow slip events (SSEs) have been observed in spatial and temporal proximity to megathrust earthquakes in various subduction zones, including the 2014
M w7.3 Guerrero, Mexico earthquake which was preceded by aM w7.6 SSE. However, the underlying physics connecting SSEs to earthquakes remains elusive. Here, we link 3D slow‐slip cycle models with dynamic rupture simulations across the geometrically complex flat‐slab Cocos plate boundary. Our physics‐based models reproduce key regional geodetic and teleseismic fault slip observations on timescales from decades to seconds. We find that accelerating SSE fronts transiently increase shear stress at the down‐dip end of the seismogenic zone, modulated by the complex geometry beneath the Guerrero segment. The shear stresses cast by the migrating fronts of the 2014M w7.6 SSE are significantly larger than those during the three previous episodic SSEs that occurred along the same portion of the megathrust. We show that the SSE transient stresses are large enough to nucleate earthquake dynamic rupture and affect rupture dynamics. However, additional frictional asperities in the seismogenic part of the megathrust are required to explain the observed complexities in the coseismic energy release and static surface displacements of the Guerrero earthquake. We conclude that it is crucial to jointly analyze the long‐ and short‐term interactions and complexities of SSEs and megathrust earthquakes across several (a)seismic cycles accounting for megathrust geometry. Our study has important implications for identifying earthquake precursors and understanding the link between transient and sudden megathrust faulting processes. -
The Mediterranean Hellenic Arc subduction zone (HASZ) has generatedseveral Mw>=8 earthquakes and tsunamis.Seismic-probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment typically utilizesuniform or stochastic earthquake models, which may not represent dynamicrupture and tsunami generation complexity. We present an ensemble of ten3D dynamic rupture earthquake scenarios for the HASZ, utilizing arealistic slab geometry. Our simplest models use uniform along-arcpre-stresses or a single circular initial stress asperity. We thenintroduce progressively more complex models varying initial shear stressalong-arc, multiple asperities based on scale-dependent critical slipweakening distance, and a most complex model blending all aforementionedheterogeneities. Thereby, regional initial conditions are constrainedwithout relying on detailed geodetic locking models. Varying hypocenterlocations in the simplest, homogeneous model leads to different rupturespeeds and moment magnitudes. We observe dynamic fault slip penetratingthe shallow slip-strengthening region and affecting seafloor uplift.Off-fault plastic deformation can double vertical seafloor uplift. Asingle-asperity model generates a Mw~8 scenarioresembling the 1303 Crete earthquake. Using along-strike varying initialstresses results in Mw~8.0-8.5 dynamic rupture scenarioswith diverse slip rates and uplift patterns. The model with the mostheterogeneous initial conditions yields a Mw~7.5scenario. Dynamic rupture complexity in prestress and fracture energytends to lower earthquake magnitude but enhances tsunamigenicdisplacements. Our results offer insights into the dynamics of potentiallarge Hellenic Arc megathrust earthquakes and may inform futurephysics-based joint seismic and tsunami hazard assessments.
-
Abstract Subduction zones host some of Earth's most damaging natural hazards, including megathrust earthquakes and earthquake‐induced tsunamis. A major control on the initiation and rupture characteristics of subduction megathrust earthquakes is how the coupled zone along the subduction interface accumulates elastic strain between events. We present results from observations of slow slip events (SSEs) in Cascadia occurring during the interseismic period downdip of the fully coupled zone, which imply that the orientation of strain accumulation within the coupled zone can vary with depth. Interseismic GPS motions suggest that forces derived from relative plate motions across a shallow, offshore locked plate interface dominate over decadal timescales. Deeper on the plate interface, below the locked (seismogenic) patch, slip during SSEs dominantly occurs in the updip direction, reflecting a dip‐parallel force acting on the slab, such as slab pull. This implies that in subduction zones with obliquely convergent plate motions, the seismogenic zone of the megathrust is loaded by forces acting in two discrete directions, leading to a depth‐varying orientation of strain accumulation on the plate interface.
-
Abstract The Mediterranean Hellenic Arc subduction zone (HASZ) has generated several 8 earthquakes and tsunamis. Seismic‐probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment typically utilizes uniform or stochastic earthquake models, which may not represent dynamic rupture and tsunami generation complexity. We present an ensemble of ten 3D dynamic rupture earthquake scenarios for the HASZ, utilizing a realistic slab geometry. Our simplest models use uniform along‐arc pre‐stresses or a single circular initial stress asperity. We then introduce progressively more complex models varying initial shear stress along‐arc, multiple asperities based on scale‐dependent critical slip weakening distance, and a most complex model blending all aforementioned heterogeneities. Thereby, regional initial conditions are constrained without relying on detailed geodetic locking models. Varying epicentral locations in the simplest, homogeneous model leads to different rupture speeds and moment magnitudes. We observe dynamic fault slip penetrating the shallow slip‐strengthening region and affecting seafloor uplift. Off‐fault plastic deformation can double vertical seafloor uplift. A single‐asperity model generates a 8 scenario resembling the 1303 Crete earthquake. Using along‐strike varying initial stresses results in 8.0–8.5 dynamic rupture scenarios with diverse slip rates and uplift patterns. The model with the most heterogeneous initial conditions yields a 7.5 scenario. Dynamic rupture complexity in prestress and fracture energy tends to lower earthquake magnitude but enhances tsunamigenic displacements. Our results offer insights into the dynamics of potential large Hellenic Arc megathrust earthquakes and may inform future physics‐based joint seismic and tsunami hazard assessments.