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1. Predicting climate change impacts on critical fisheries species in Fijian marine systems and its implications for protected area spatial planning

   https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13709  

   Lawson, Katherine N. ; Lang, Karina M. ; Rabaiotti, Daniella ; Drew, Joshua ( August 2023 , Diversity and Distributions)

   Spatially explicit protections of coastal habitats determined on the current distribution of species and ecosystems risk becoming obsolete in 100 years if the movement of species ranges outpaces management action. Hence, a critical step of conservation is predicting the efficacy of management actions in future. We aimed to determine how foundational, habitat‐building species will respond to climate change in Fiji.

   The Republic of Fiji.

   We develop species distribution models (SDMs) using MaxEnt, General Additive Models and Boosted Regression Trees and publicly available data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility to predict changes in distribution of suitable habitat for mangrove forests, coral habitat, seagrass meadows and critical fisheries invertebrates under several IPCC climate change scenarios in 2070 or 2100. We then overlay predicted distribution models onto existing Fijian protected area network to assess whether today's conservation measures will afford protection to tomorrow's distributions.

   We found that mangrove suitability is projected to decrease along the Coral Coast and increase northward towards the Yasawa Islands due to precipitation changes. The response of seagrass meadows was predicted to be inconsistent and dependent on the climate scenario. Meanwhile, suitability for coral reefs was not predicted to decline significantly overall. The mangrove crabScylla serrata, an important resource for fisherwomen in Fiji, is projected to increase in habitat suitability while economically important sea cucumber species will have highly variable responses to climate change.

   Species distribution models are a critical tool for conservation managers, as linking spatial distribution data with future climate change scenarios can aid in the creation and resiliency of protected area programmes. New protected area designations should consider the future distribution of species to maximize benefits to those taxa.

    

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2. The impact of climate change on western Plethodon salamanders’ distribution

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7735  

   Nottingham, Sir ; Pelletier, Tara A. ( June 2021 , Ecology and Evolution)

   Given that salamanders have experienced large shifts in their distributions over time, we determined how each species ofPlethodonin the Pacific Northwest would respond to climate change. We incorporated several greenhouse scenarios both on a species‐by‐species basis, and also using phylogenetic groups, with the aim to determine the best course of action in managing land area to conserve diversity in this group.

   Pacific Northwest of the United States (northern CA, OR, WA, ID, and MT).

   WesternPlethodonsalamanders.

   Species distribution models were estimated using MaxEnt for the current time period and for several future climate scenarios using bioclimatic data layers. We used several methods to quantify the change in habitat suitability over time from the models. We explored aspects of the climate layers to determine whether we can expect a concerted response to climate change due to similarity in ecological niche or independent responses that could be harder to manage.

   The distribution of westernPlethodonsalamander species is strongly influenced by precipitation and less so by temperature. Species responses to climate change resulted in both increases and decreases in predicted suitable habitat, though most species ranges do not contract, especially when taken as a phylogenetic group.

   While some established habitats may become more or less climatically suitable, the overall distribution of species in this group is unlikely to be significantly affected. Clades ofPlethodonspecies are unlikely to be in danger of extirpation despite the possibility that individual species may be threatened as a result of limited distributions. Grouping species into lineages with similar geographic ranges can be a viable method of determining conservation needs. More biotic and dispersal information is needed to determine the true impact that changes in climate will have on the distribution ofPlethodonspecies.

    

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3. Habitat–trait interactions that control response to climate change: North American ground beetles (Carabidae)

   https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13670  

   Qiu, Tong ; Bell, Aaron J. ; Swenson, Jennifer J. ; Clark, James S. ( March 2023 , Global Ecology and Biogeography)

   As one of the most diverse and economically important families on Earth, ground beetles (Carabidae) are viewed as a key barometer of climate change. Recent meta‐analyses provide equivocal evidence on abundance changes of terrestrial insects. Generalizations from traits (e.g., body size, diets, flights) provide insights into understanding community responses, but syntheses for the diverse Carabidae have not yet emerged. We aim to determine how habitat and trait syndromes mediate risks from contemporary and future climate change on the Carabidae community.

   North America.

   2012–2100.

   Ground beetles (Carabidae).

   We synthesized the abundance and trait data for 136 species from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) and additional raw data from studies across North America with remotely sensed habitat characteristics in a generalized joint attribute model. Combined Light Detection and RAnging (LiDAR) and hyperspectral imagery were used to derive habitat at a continental scale. We evaluated climate risks on the joint response of species and traits by expanding climate velocity to response velocity given habitat change.

   Habitat contributes more variations in species abundance and community‐weighted mean traits compared to climate. Across North America, grassland fliers benefit from open habitats in hot, dry climates. By contrast, large‐bodied, burrowing omnivores prefer warm‐wet climates beneath closed canopies. Species‐specific abundance changes predicted by the fitted model under future shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios are controlled by climate interactions with habitat heterogeneity. For example, the mid‐size, non‐flier is projected to decline across much of the continent, but the magnitudes of declines are reduced or even reversed where canopies are open. Conversely, temperature dominates the response of the small, frequent flierAgonoleptus conjunctus, causing projected change to be more closely linked to regional temperature changes.

   Carabidae community reorganization under climate change is being governed by climate–habitat interactions (CHI). Species‐specific responses to CHI are explained by trait syndromes. The fact that habitat mediates warming impacts has immediate application to critical habitat designation for carabid conservation.

    

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4. The geno-geo-climate nexus: contributions of geographic and ecological factors in shaping the genomic divergence of two closely related threatened rainforest species of Fontainea Heckel (Euphorbiaceae)

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-024-01828-w  

   Brunton, Aaron J. ; Farleigh, Keaka ; Ogbourne, Steven M. ; Rossetto, Maurizio ; Schoeman, David S. ; Conroy, Gabriel C. ( January 2024 , Landscape Ecology)

   Processes that shape genomic and ecological divergence can reveal important evolutionary dynamics to inform the conservation of threatened species.Fontaineais a genus of rainforest shrubs and small trees including critically endangered and threatened species restricted to narrow, but complex geographic and ecological regions. Several species ofFontaineaare subject to spatially explicit conditions and experience limited intra-specific gene flow, likely generating genetic differentiation and local adaptation.

   Here, we explored the genetic and ecological mechanisms underlying patterns of diversification in two, closely related threatenedFontaineaspecies. Our aim was to compare spatial patterns of genetic variation between the vulnerableFontainea australis(Southern Fontainea) and critically endangeredF. oraria(Coastal Fontainea), endemic to the heterogeneous subtropical region of central, eastern Australia, where large-scale clearing has severely reduced rainforest habitat to a fraction (< 1%) of its pre-European settlement extent.

   We used a set of 10,000 reduced-representation markers to infer genetic relationships and the drivers of spatial genetic variation across the two species. In addition, we employed a combination of univariate and multivariate genome-environment association analysis using a set of topo-climatic variables to explore potential patterns of local adaptation as a factor impacting genomic divergence.

   Our study revealed that Coastal Fontainea have a close genetic relationship with Southern Fontainea. We showed that isolation by distance has played a key role in their genetic variation, indicating that vicariance can explain the spatial genetic distribution of the two species. Genotype-environment analyses showed a strong association with temperature and topographic features, suggesting adaptation to localised thermal environments. We used a multivariate redundancy analysis to identify a range of putatively adapted loci associated with local environmental conditions.

   Divergent selection at the local-habitat scale as a result of dispersal limitations and environmental heterogeneity (including physical barriers) are likely contributors to adaptive divergence between the twoFontaineaspecies. Our findings have presented evidence to indicate that Southern and Coastal Fontainea were comprised of distinct genetic groups and ecotypes, that together may form a single species continuum, with further phenotype research suggested to confirm the current species boundaries. Proactive conservation actions, including assisted migration to enhance the resilience of populations lacking stress-tolerant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) may be required to secure the long-term future of both taxa. This is especially vital for the critically endangered Coastal Fontainea given projections of habitat decline for the species under future climate scenarios.

    

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5. Enhanced shrub growth in the Arctic increases habitat connectivity for browsing herbivores

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15104  

   Zhou, Jiake ; Tape, Ken D. ; Prugh, Laura ; Kofinas, Gary ; Carroll, Geoff ; Kielland, Knut ( April 2020 , Global Change Biology)

   Habitat connectivity is a key factor influencing species range dynamics. Rapid warming in the Arctic is leading to widespread heterogeneous shrub expansion, but impacts of these habitat changes on range dynamics for large herbivores are not well understood. We use the climate–shrub–moose system of northern Alaska as a case study to examine how shrub habitat will respond to predicted future warming, and how these changes may impact habitat connectivity and the distribution of moose (Alces alces). We used a 19 year moose location dataset, a 568 km transect of field shrub sampling, and forecasted warming scenarios with regional downscaling to map current and projected shrub habitat for moose on the North Slope of Alaska. The tall‐shrub habitat for moose exhibited a dendritic spatial configuration correlated with river corridor networks and mean July temperature. Warming scenarios predict that moose habitat will more than double by 2099. Forecasted warming is predicted to increase the spatial cohesion of the habitat network that diminishes effects of fragmentation, which improves overall habitat quality and likely expands the range of moose. These findings demonstrate how climate change may increase habitat connectivity and alter the distributions of shrub herbivores in the Arctic, including creation of novel communities and ecosystems.

    

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