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Abstract Mantle convection drives changes in Earth's ellipsoidal figure and corresponding moment of inertia, causing shifts in the planet's rotation axis known as true polar wander (TPW). Using seismic tomography and the Back-and-Forth Nudging (BFN) method, we developed a time-dependent convection model that reconstructs the evolution of mantle density distribution and Earth’s moment of inertia over the past 70 million years. This modelling approach provides a close match with independent paleomagnetic constraints on the Cenozoic shifts of Earth’s rotation pole, specifically resolving the previously unexplained U-turn in TPW trajectory at approximately 50 million years ago. Our findings reveal TPW shifts exceeding 5 degrees, despite the temporal stability imposed by high lower-mantle viscosity and the stabilizing effect of Earth's remnant rotational bulge. Verification of our predicted changes in Earth’s ellipsoidal figure through independent paleomagnetic data provides a robust calibration for new predictions of convection-induced dynamic flattening variations. Over the past 70 million years, we find convection-induced changes of flattening that shift from -0.2% to +0.1 % during the Paleogene. Our predictions of Earth's axial precession frequency in the Paleogene align with recent independent cyclostratigraphic studies, thus validating our model's accuracy and supporting the hypothesis of reduced luni-solar tidal dissipation during this period.
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Embracing Uncertainty to Resolve Polar Wander: A Case Study of Cenozoic North America
Abstract Our understanding of Earth's paleogeography relies heavily on paleomagnetic apparent polar wander paths (APWPs), which represent the time‐dependent position of Earth's spin axis relative to a given block of lithosphere. However, conventional approaches to APWP construction have significant limitations. First, the paleomagnetic record contains substantial noise that is not integrated into APWPs. Second, parametric assumptions are adopted to represent spatial and temporal uncertainties even where the underlying data do not conform to the assumed distributions. The consequences of these limitations remain largely unknown. Here, we address these challenges with a bottom‐up Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation scheme that operates on site‐level paleomagnetic data. To demonstrate our methodology, we present an extensive compilation of site‐level Cenozoic paleomagnetic data from North America, which we use to generate a high‐resolution APWP. Our results demonstrate that even in the presence of substantial noise, polar wandering can be assessed with unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2148719
- PAR ID:
- 10420697
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 50
- Issue:
- 11
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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