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Title: Do Government Spending Multipliers Depend on the Sign of the Shock?
We analyze whether government spending multipliers differ by the sign of the shock. Using aggregate historical US data, we apply Ben Zeev's (2020) nonlinear diagnostic tests and find evidence of nonlinearities in the impulse response functions of both government spending and GDP. We then extend Ramey and Zubairy's (2018) framework to allow for asymmetric effects as a type of state dependence to estimate multipliers. While we find differences in the impulse response functions, the resulting multipliers do not differ by sign of the shock. Thus, declines in government spending do not have different effects on economic activity than rises in spending.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1658796
PAR ID:
10425534
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
AEA Papers and Proceedings
Volume:
113
ISSN:
2574-0768
Page Range / eLocation ID:
382 to 387
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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