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Causal discovery in time-series datasets is critical for understanding complex systems, especially when the \textit{effectiveness} of causal relationships depends on both the \textit{duration} and \textit{magnitude} of the cause. We introduce a novel framework for causal discovery based on \textbf{Signal Temporal Logic (STL)}, enabling the extraction of interpretable causal diagrams (STL-CD) that explicitly capture these temporal dynamics. Our method first identifies statistically meaningful time intervals, then infers STL formulas that classify system behaviors, and finally employs transfer entropy to determine direct causal relationships among the formulas. This approach not only uncovers causal structure but also identifies the temporal persistence required for causal influence—an insight missed by existing methods. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our method achieves superior structural accuracy over state-of-the-art baselines, providing more informative and temporally precise causal models.
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Weighted Clock Logic Point Process
Datasets involving multivariate event streams are prevalent in numerous applications. We present a novel framework for modeling temporal point processes called clock logic neural networks (CLNN) which learn weighted clock logic (wCL) formulas as interpretable temporal rules by which some events promote or inhibit other events. Specifically, CLNN models temporal relations between events using conditional intensity rates informed by a set of wCL formulas, which are more expressive than related prior work. Unlike conventional approaches of searching for generative rules through expensive combinatorial optimization, we design smooth activation functions for components of wCL formulas that enable a continuous relaxation of the discrete search space and efficient learning of wCL formulas using gradient-based methods. Experiments on synthetic datasets manifest our model's ability to recover the ground-truth rules and improve computational efficiency. In addition, experiments on real-world datasets show that our models perform competitively when compared with state-of-the-art models.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1936578
- PAR ID:
- 10426189
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- International Conference on Learning Research (ICLR) 2023
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript
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