An official website of the United States government
Abstract Foreshocks are the only currently widely identified precursory seismic behavior, yet their utility and even identifiability are problematic, in part because of extreme variation in behavior. Here, we establish some global trends that help identify the expected frequency of foreshocks as well the type of earthquake most prone to foreshocks. We establish these tendencies using the global earthquake catalog of the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center with a completeness level of magnitude 5 and mainshocks with Mw≥7.0. Foreshocks are identified using three clustering algorithms to address the challenge of distinguishing foreshocks from background activity. The methods give a range of 15%–43% of large mainshocks having at least one foreshock but a narrower range of 13%–26% having at least one foreshock with magnitude within two units of the mainshock magnitude. These observed global foreshock rates are similar to regional values for a completeness level of magnitude 3 using the same detection conditions. The foreshock sequences have distinctive characteristics with the global composite population b-values being lower for foreshocks than for aftershocks, an attribute that is also manifested in synthetic catalogs computed by epidemic-type aftershock sequences, which intrinsically involves only cascading processes. Focal mechanism similarity of foreshocks relative to mainshocks is more pronounced than for aftershocks. Despite these distinguishing characteristics of foreshock sequences, the conditions that promote high foreshock productivity are similar to those that promote high aftershock productivity. For instance, a modestly higher percentage of interplate mainshocks have foreshocks than intraplate mainshocks, and reverse faulting events slightly more commonly have foreshocks than normal or strike-slip-faulting mainshocks. The western circum-Pacific is prone to having slightly more foreshock activity than the eastern circum-Pacific.
more »
« less
Cascading foreshocks, aftershocks and earthquake swarms in a discrete fault network
SUMMARY Earthquakes come in clusters formed of mostly aftershock sequences, swarms and occasional foreshock sequences. This clustering is thought to result either from stress transfer among faults, a process referred to as cascading, or from transient loading by aseismic slip (pre-slip, afterslip or slow slip events). The ETAS statistical model is often used to quantify the fraction of clustering due to stress transfer and to assess the eventual need for aseismic slip to explain foreshocks or swarms. Another popular model of clustering relies on the earthquake nucleation model derived from experimental rate-and-state friction. According to this model, earthquakes cluster because they are time-advanced by the stress change imparted by the mainshock. This model ignores stress interactions among aftershocks and cannot explain foreshocks or swarms in the absence of transient loading. Here, we analyse foreshock, swarm and aftershock sequences resulting from cascades in a Discrete Fault Network model governed by rate-and-state friction. We show that the model produces realistic swarms, foreshocks and aftershocks. The Omori law, characterizing the temporal decay of aftershocks, emerges in all simulations independently of the assumed initial condition. In our simulations, the Omori law results from the earthquake nucleation process due to rate and state friction and from the heterogeneous stress changes due to the coseismic stress transfers. By contrast, the inverse Omori law, which characterizes the accelerating rate of foreshocks, emerges only in the simulations with a dense enough fault system. A high-density complex fault zone favours fault interactions and the emergence of an accelerating sequence of foreshocks. Seismicity catalogues generated with our discrete fault network model can generally be fitted with the ETAS model but with some material differences. In the discrete fault network simulations, fault interactions are weaker in aftershock sequences because they occur in a broader zone of lower fault density and because of the depletion of critically stressed faults. The productivity of the cascading process is, therefore, significantly higher in foreshocks than in aftershocks if fault zone complexity is high. This effect is not captured by the ETAS model of fault interactions. It follows that a foreshock acceleration stronger than expected from ETAS statistics does not necessarily require aseismic slip preceding the mainshock (pre-slip). It can be a manifestation of a cascading process enhanced by the topological properties of the fault network. Similarly, earthquake swarms might not always imply transient loading by aseismic slip, as they can emerge from stress interactions.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1822214
- PAR ID:
- 10434881
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Journal International
- Volume:
- 235
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 0956-540X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X Size: p. 831-852
- Size(s):
- p. 831-852
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
Abstract The 2021MW6.0 Yangbi, Yunnan strike‐slip earthquake occurred on an unmapped crustal fault near the Weixi‐Qiaoho‐Weishan Fault along the southeast margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Using near‐source broadband seismic data from ChinArray, we investigate the spatial and temporal rupture evolution of the mainshock using apparent moment‐rate functions (AMRFs) determined by the empirical Green's function (EGF) method. Assuming a 1D line source on the fault plane, the rupture propagated unilaterally southeastward (∼144°) over a rupture length of ∼8.0 km with an estimated rupture speed of 2.1 km/s to 2.4 km/s. A 2D coseismic slip distribution for an assumed maximum rupture propagation speed of 2.2 km/s indicates that the rupture propagated to the southeast ∼8.0 km along strike and ∼5.0 km downdip with a peak slip of ∼2.1 m before stopping near the largest foreshock, where three bifurcating subfaults intersect. Using the AMRFs, the radiated energy of the mainshock is estimated as ∼. The relatively low moment scaled radiated energyof 1.5 × 10−5and intense foreshock and aftershock activity might indicate reactivation of an immature fault. The earthquake sequence is mainly distributed along a northwest‐southeast trend, and aftershocks and foreshocks are distributed near the periphery of the mainshock large‐slip area, suggesting that the stress in the mainshock slip zone is significantly reduced to below the level for more than a few overlapping aftershock to occur.more » « less
-
The recent 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence in Southern California jostled the seismological community by revealing a complex and cascading foreshock series that culminated in a M7.1 mainshock. But the central Garlock fault, despite being located immediately south of this sequence, did not coseismically fail. Instead, the Garlock fault underwent post-seismic creep and exhibited a sizeable earthquake swarm. The dynamic details of the rupture process during the mainshock is largely unknown, as is the amount of stress needed to bring the Garlock fault to failure. We present an integrated view of how stresses changed on the Garlock fault during and after the mainshock using a combination of tools including kinematic slip inversion, Coulomb stress change, and dynamic rupture modeling. We show that positive Coulomb stress changes cannot easily explain observed aftershock patterns on the Garlock fault, but are consistent with where creep was documented on the central Garlock fault section. Our dynamic model is able to reproduce the main slip asperities and kinematically estimated rupture speeds (≤ 2 km/s) during the mainshock, and suggests the temporal changes in normal and shear stress on the Garlock fault were greatest near the end of rupture. The largest static and dynamic stress changes on the Garlock fault we observe from our models coincide with the creeping region, suggesting that positive stress perturbations could have caused this during or after the mainshock rupture. This analysis of near-field stress change evolution gives insight into how the Ridgecrest sequence influenced the local stress field of the northernmost Eastern California Shear Zone.more » « less
-
Abstract Foreshocks provide valuable information on the nucleation process of an upcoming large earthquake. We applied high‐resolution similar‐waveform techniques for earthquake detection, location, and source parameter estimation to understand the space‐time evolution of a foreshock sequence and its relationship to the mainshock hypocenter. The 1999Mw7.1 Hector Mine, California, earthquake was preceded by 50 foreshocks (−0.4 ≤ M ≤ 3.7) during the 20 hr before the mainshock. Foreshock activity did not accelerate leading up to the mainshock. Their locations moved north with time, rupturing adjacent areas along the fault plane with little overlap, but remained within a compact <2 km3volume. The mainshock initiated at a location where previous foreshocks had locally increased the shear stress. These observations are consistent with a triggered cascade of stress transfer, where previous foreshocks load adjacent fault patches to rupture as additional foreshocks, and eventually the mainshock.more » « less
-
Abstract The number of aftershocks increases with mainshock size following a well‐defined scaling law. However, excursions from the average behavior are common. This variability is particularly concerning for large earthquakes where the number of aftershocks varies by factors of 100 for mainshocks of comparable magnitude. Do observable factors lead to differences in aftershock behavior? We examine aftershock productivity relative to the global average for all mainshocks () from 1990 to 2019. A global map of earthquake productivity highlights the influence of tectonic regimes. Earthquake depth, lithosphere age, and plate boundary type correspond well with earthquake productivity. We investigate the role of mainshock attributes by compiling source dimensions, radiated seismic energy, stress drop, and a measure of slip heterogeneity based on finite‐fault source inversions for the largest earthquakes from 1990 to 2017. On an individual basis, stress drop, normalized rupture width, and aspect ratio most strongly correlate with aftershock productivity. A multivariate analysis shows that a particular set of parameters (dip, lithospheric age, and normalized rupture area) combines well to improve predictions of aftershock productivity on a cross‐validated data set. Our overall analysis is consistent with a model in which the volumetric abundance of nearby stressed faults controls the aftershock productivity rather than variations in source stress. Thus, we suggest a complementary approach to aftershock forecasts based on geological and rupture properties rather than local calibration alone.more » « less
