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Estimating the large-scale variability and trends in subsurface ocean temperatures is limited by sparse in situ observations inadequate for resolving mesoscale eddies. Travel times of seismically generated sound waves, sensitive to path-integrated temperature, provide complementary integral constraints. We here use earthquakes along the Japan Trench and receivers at Wake Island to sample the Kuroshio Extension region in the Northwest Pacific. We develop a Gaussian process framework, optimized via maximum likelihood, to estimate temperature anomalies and uncertainties from this seismic data and to combine it with in situ data from Argo profiles and shipboard data. This framework shows seismic measurements are quantitatively consistent with in situ data and substantially reduce uncertainties in large-scale variability and trends. Relative to their prior, error variances of area-mean temperature fluctuations due to mesoscale eddies from 2008 to 2021 are reduced by 30% by the in situ data, 39% by the seismic data and 50% by the combination. For path-mean estimates, the combined reduction is 83% in error variances, compared to 45% from in situ data alone. The data show a steady subsurface warming of 11.8±5.0 mK/yr (2σ uncertainty) from 2008 to 2021 and no substantial trend between 1997 and 2008.
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Shear properties of MgO inferred using neural networks
Abstract. Shear properties of mantle minerals are vital for interpreting seismic shear wave speeds and therefore inferring the composition and dynamics of a planetary interior. Shear wave speed and elastic tensor components, from which the shear modulus can be computed, are usually measured in the laboratory mimicking the Earth's (or a planet's) internal pressure and temperature conditions. A functional form that relates the shear modulus to pressure (and temperature) is fitted to the measurements and used to interpolate within and extrapolate beyond the range covered by the data. Assuming a functional form provides prior information, and the constraints on the predicted shear modulus and its uncertainties might depend largely on the assumed prior rather than the data. In the present study, we propose a data-driven approach in which we train a neural network to learn the relationship between the pressure, temperature and shear modulus from the experimental data without prescribing a functional form a priori. We present an application to MgO, but the same approach works for any other mineral if there are sufficient data to train a neural network. At low pressures, the shear modulus of MgO is well-constrained by the data. However, our results show that different experimental results are inconsistent even at room temperature, seen as multiple peaks and diverging trends in probability density functions predicted by the network. Furthermore, although an explicit finite-strain equation mostly agrees with the likelihood predicted by the neural network, there are regions where it diverges from the range given by the networks. In those regions, it is the prior assumption of the form of the equation that provides constraints on the shear modulus regardless of how the Earth behaves (or data behave). In situations where realistic uncertainties are not reported, one can become overconfident when interpreting seismic models based on those defined equations of state. In contrast, the trained neural network provides a reasonable approximation to experimental data and quantifies the uncertainty from experimental errors, interpolation uncertainty, data sparsity and inconsistencies from different experiments.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2009935
- PAR ID:
- 10438238
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- European Journal of Mineralogy
- Volume:
- 35
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1617-4011
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 45 to 58
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/ejm-35-45-2023
