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			<titleStmt><title level='a'>Magma Chamber Detected Beneath an Arc Volcano With Full‐Waveform Inversion of Active‐Source Seismic Data</title></titleStmt>
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				<publisher></publisher>
				<date>11/01/2022</date>
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				<bibl> 
					<idno type="par_id">10440839</idno>
					<idno type="doi">10.1029/2022GC010475</idno>
					<title level='j'>Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems</title>
<idno>1525-2027</idno>
<biblScope unit="volume">23</biblScope>
<biblScope unit="issue">11</biblScope>					

					<author>K. Chrapkiewicz</author><author>M. Paulatto</author><author>B. A. Heath</author><author>E. E. Hooft</author><author>P. Nomikou</author><author>C. B. Papazachos</author><author>F. Schmid</author><author>D. R. Toomey</author><author>M. R. Warner</author><author>J. V. Morgan</author>
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			<abstract><ab><![CDATA[Arc volcanoes are the surface expression of magmatic processes that originate from the partial melting of the mantle above subducting plates (England & Katz, 2010). The thermodynamic conditions encountered by the melt as it moves toward the surface govern the volcanic eruption style (Cashman et al., 2017). Highly explosive eruptions of evolved, volatile-rich, viscous magmas at volcanic arcs (Bachmann & Bergantz, 2009) account for ∼95% of human fatalities associated with eruptive phenomena (Brown et al., 2017). The explosivity is enhanced at (semi-)submerged volcanoes due to magma-water interactions (Peckover et al., 1973;Wohletz & Heiken, 1992). Such events can lead to high and voluminous ash clouds, tsunami, and extensive pumice rafts, as occurred in the 1600]]></ab></abstract>
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<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><p>The plumbing systems of arc volcanoes comprise a vertically extensive network of melt reservoirs <ref type="bibr">(Cashman et al., 2017)</ref>. A step change from melt-controlled to crystal-controlled rheology naturally divides these reservoirs into (melt-rich) magma chambers and (melt-poor) mush zones <ref type="bibr">(Sparks et al., 2019)</ref>. It is widely accepted that magma differentiation occurs primarily in the deep crust <ref type="bibr">(Annen et al., 2006)</ref>, while shallow melt storage conditions control the style and volume of eruptions <ref type="bibr">(Cashman et al., 2013;</ref><ref type="bibr">Popa et al., 2021)</ref>. The question of whether a shallow reservoir is a magma chamber or a mush zone is critical for assessing eruption likelihood and dynamics. Presence of mobile melt (magma) allows for a rapid eruption <ref type="bibr">(Caricchi et al., 2021;</ref><ref type="bibr">Seropian et al., 2021)</ref>, while pre-eruptive crystallinity affects buoyancy-driven outgassing <ref type="bibr">(Parmigiani et al., 2017)</ref>. Just as important for hazard assessment is the reservoir geometry. The spatial distribution of melt can be used to estimate the magma recharge rate and the likely volume of future eruptions.</p></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="1.1.">Need for High-Resolution Imaging of Volcanoes</head><p>While petrology gives invaluable insights into thermal evolution and ascent history of magma (e.g., <ref type="bibr">Druitt et al., 2012)</ref>, constraining reservoir geometry and current storage conditions under active volcanoes requires geophysical imaging. Seismic tomography has provided strong evidence for partial melting beneath many active volcanoes and has helped constrain magma storage depths and volumes (e.g., <ref type="bibr">Heath et al., 2015;</ref><ref type="bibr">Kiser et al., 2018;</ref><ref type="bibr">McVey et al., 2020;</ref><ref type="bibr">Paulatto et al., 2012;</ref><ref type="bibr">Ward et al., 2014)</ref>. The seismological evidence is broadly consistent with low melt fraction storage <ref type="bibr">(Lees, 2007)</ref>, but the inherent resolution limits <ref type="bibr">(Malcolm &amp; Trampert, 2011;</ref><ref type="bibr">Paulatto et al., 2022)</ref> lead to significant over-and under-estimation of a reservoir's volume and melt fraction, respectively. Although the evidence for crystal mush reservoirs seems compelling, the picture is far from complete. It is unclear whether magma can be rapidly extracted from crystal mush and directly erupted or whether it must first accumulate in high melt fraction magma chambers or lenses <ref type="bibr">(Sparks et al., 2019)</ref>. The question of how eruptible magma can be extracted from mush reservoirs is also hotly debated <ref type="bibr">(Holness et al., 2019)</ref>. Persistent melt lenses may have been overlooked if they are smaller than the resolution limits of the geophysical methods used to date. Such "covert" melt lenses have been drilled at &#8764;2 km b.s.l. at several volcanoes <ref type="bibr">(Rooyakkers et al., 2021)</ref>. Although their prevalence is unknown, they may pose a significant hazard, affecting the availability of eruptible magma.</p><p>Traditional seismic imaging methods are unsuitable for addressing these questions since they lack the resolution required to detect melt lenses. We show that full-waveform inversion (FWI) can overcome this limitation and can provide robust constraints on melt fraction. FWI is well-suited for detecting crustal magma <ref type="bibr">(Morgan et al., 2013)</ref>, but requires dense sources and/or receivers. Focusing on a submarine volcano has the advantage of dense marine seismic acquisition. Our method can achieve a resolution of a few hundred metres, enough to detect small melt lenses that have so far remained beyond reach <ref type="bibr">(Morgan et al., 2013)</ref>.</p></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="1.2.">Kolumbo Volcano</head><p>Here, we use full-waveform seismic imaging to study Kolumbo, an active submarine volcano located in the Santorini volcanic field (SVF), along the Hellenic Arc (Figure <ref type="figure">1a</ref>). Kolumbo is the most active center of seismic <ref type="bibr">(Andinisari et al., 2021;</ref><ref type="bibr">Bohnhoff et al., 2006;</ref><ref type="bibr">Dimitriadis et al., 2009;</ref><ref type="bibr">Schmid et al., 2022)</ref> and high-temperature hydrothermal activity within the SVF <ref type="bibr">(Carey et al., 2013;</ref><ref type="bibr">H&#252;bscher et al., 2006;</ref><ref type="bibr">Kilias et al., 2013;</ref><ref type="bibr">Rizzo et al., 2016;</ref><ref type="bibr">Sigurdsson et al., 2006)</ref>. It last erupted in 1650 AD in a highly explosive, tsunamigenic event <ref type="bibr">(Ulvrova et al., 2016)</ref> which produced a few km 3 of hydrous, biotite-rich rhyolitic lava <ref type="bibr">(Cantner et al., 2014;</ref><ref type="bibr">Konstantinou, 2020)</ref>. Despite the high heat and gas fluxes <ref type="bibr">(Rizzo et al., 2019)</ref> which suggest an elevated magmatic activity, little is known about the underlying magmatic system. Local-earthquake tomography showed a 5%-reduction in S-wave velocity at 5-7 km b.s.l. <ref type="bibr">(Dimitriadis et al., 2010)</ref>. Its interpretation as a magma chamber was utilized in petrological <ref type="bibr">(Cantner et al., 2014)</ref> and numerical studies <ref type="bibr">(Konstantinou, 2020)</ref>. Active-source travel time tomography does not detect a significant anomaly in the uppermost 6 km <ref type="bibr">(McVey et al., 2020)</ref>, with just a reduction of 3% in P-wave velocity at 2-4 km b.s.l. directly below the edifice <ref type="bibr">(Hooft et al., 2019)</ref>.</p></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="2.">Data and Methods</head></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="2.1.">Data Selection and Processing</head><p>We apply 3D acoustic isotropic FWI <ref type="bibr">(Morgan et al., 2013;</ref><ref type="bibr">Tarantola, 1984)</ref> to a wide-angle, multi-azimuth seismic data set <ref type="bibr">(Hooft et al., 2017)</ref> consisting of early arriving waves generated by densely spaced airgun shots and recorded by ocean-bottom seismometers (Figure <ref type="figure">1b</ref>). The analyzed data set is a subset of the data collected in the PROTEUS experiment <ref type="bibr">(Hooft et al., 2017)</ref> contained in a 17 &#215; 18 km wide box (Figure <ref type="figure">1b</ref>), comprising 16 ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) and 1,505 air-gun shots fired at &#8764;150 m intervals along the profile lines.</p><p>The local Cartesian coordinate system was obtained by rotating a local E-N coordinate system centered at 25.3971&#176;E 36.4042&#176;N by 25.5 counterclockwise. Traces where direct water waves interfere with the crustal refractions (shot-receiver offset less than 5 km) were excluded from the data set, followed by manual removal of bad-quality traces, resulting in an average of 977 traces per OBS. Each trace was 5-s long, sampled at 2.5 ms. The data were filtered with a minimum-phase, frequency-domain, band-pass Butterworth filter of corner frequencies 2-3-4.5-6.5 Hz followed by muting before, and 1 s after, first breaks calculated from the starting model (see below).</p></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="2.2.">Full-Waveform Inversion</head><p>We used an explicit, time-domain, least-squares-optimized, finite-difference solver of the acoustic, isotropic, 3D wave equation implemented in the FULLWAVE3D package <ref type="bibr">(Warner et al., 2013)</ref> with effective accuracy of sixth order in space and fourth order in time. As the number of air-gun shots was much greater than the number of OBSs, source-receiver reciprocity was used by labeling sources as receivers and receivers as sources.</p><p>Our starting P-wave velocity model was derived by first-arrival travel-time tomography <ref type="bibr">(Heath et al., 2019</ref>) and discretized at 50-m interval in all dimensions. The density was calculated at each iteration from that model using an empirical relation <ref type="bibr">(Gardner et al., 1974)</ref>, except for a constant value in the water. The seabed was modeled implicitly as a velocity contrast. The sea surface was simulated as a flat, planar free surface located one node above the top of the model grid. Absorbing boundaries <ref type="bibr">(Cerjan et al., 1985)</ref> of 2.5-km width were used elsewhere. A single-source wavelet assigned to all shots was extracted from the data by deghosting stacked, high-quality, near-offset traces using an initial-guess wavelet and a Wiener filter.</p><p>A least squares misfit between synthetic and field data, both normalized by their respective norms, was minimized with a steepest-descent algorithm preconditioned by an approximation of the diagonal Hessian of the misfit function <ref type="bibr">(Warner et al., 2013)</ref>. Both the misfit gradient and the step-length were calculated using the adjoint method <ref type="bibr">(Lions, 1972;</ref><ref type="bibr">Tarantola, 1984)</ref>. The regularization involved smoothing the misfit gradient by a Gaussian filter over two (local wavelengths) horizontally and one vertically. Both the source wavelet and field data were low-pass filtered at a cut-off frequency increasing by 0.5 Hz from 3 (the lowest inverted frequency) to 6.5 Hz across eight blocks of 20 iterations, totaling 160 iterations.</p><p>The gradient-based FWI algorithms based on the least squares misfit, such as the one used here, require a starting model that is good enough to match the majority of observed data to a half of the lowest inverted frequency <ref type="bibr">(Hole et al., 2005)</ref>. When this condition is not met, the prevailing "cycle-skipped" data may drive the inversion toward a wrong local minimum <ref type="bibr">(Virieux &amp; Operto, 2009)</ref>. This means that travel-time data inverted for the starting model to be used in FWI needs to be obtained with a well-sampled seismic survey. The data behind our starting model was collected with the same dense geometry that was used for FWI. The high quality of the starting model was confirmed by reproducing most of the observed waveforms in the offset-range of interest down to a half the cycle at the lowest inverted frequency. This frequency was chosen to be 3 Hz based on the trade-off between the poor S/N ratio at lower frequencies and the worse accuracy of the model at higher frequencies (&gt;4 Hz).</p><p>The main result of this study is a P-wave velocity model of the subsurface at and around Kolumbo. The model is constrained to a 17 &#215; 18 km horizontal domain (Figure <ref type="figure">1b</ref>) and stretches down to 4 km below sea level, sampled regularly at a 50-m interval. Synthetic waveforms calculated through this model match the observed data much better than for the starting model and the inversion converged to a waveform-misfit minimum (Figure <ref type="figure">2</ref>, Figures S6-S17 in Supporting Information S1).</p></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="2.3.">Resolution and Uncertainty Analysis</head><p>We analyzed phase spectra (wrapped between -&#960; and &#960; radians) of the early synthetic and observed arrivals in order to estimate the S/N ratio of the field data and the adequacy of the input and forward modeling <ref type="bibr">(Shah et al., 2012)</ref>. Phase-residual plots of early synthetic and observed arrivals were used to assess the quality of the starting model, in particular, to detect problems with data cycle-skipping indicated by abrupt changes from -&#960; to &#960; (or vice versa) between neighboring stations (Figure <ref type="figure">2</ref>).</p><p>To assess the effective resolving power of the inversion, in particular, to quantify the expected underestimation of velocity anomalies, we performed a suite of spike tests <ref type="bibr">(Rawlinson &amp; Spakman, 2016)</ref>. We used the same strategy and input as for the field-data inversion. The only difference was replacing the observed data with acoustic synthetics calculated through an ensemble of 12 models constructed by perturbing the starting model with a suite of spherically symmetric 3D Gaussian anomalies centered roughly at the observed low-velocity anomaly (13.25; 8.75; 2.75 km), with full widths at half-maximum of 0.2, 0.8, and 1.4 km and peak amplitudes equal to 1%, 5%, 10% and 50% of the background model. Only anomalies stronger than 10% were detectable. The best recovery (80% of the true peak amplitude) was obtained for the 50% anomaly of 0.8-km width (Figure <ref type="figure">S5</ref> in Supporting Information S1). Anomalies smaller and/or weaker were not recovered. Larger (1.4 km) but weaker (10%) anomalies yielded worse recovery than the best case, while the 50% anomaly of 1.4-km width led to artifacts characteristic of cycle-skipping.</p><p>To detect potential outliers in the OBS data and quantify the uncertainty of the final model we used jack-knife resampling (e.g., <ref type="bibr">Rawlinson et al., 2014)</ref>. We performed 16 field-data inversions, every time excluding a different OBS from the data set. The standard deviation of the models recovered after 160 iterations (Figure <ref type="figure">S4</ref> in Supporting Information S1) was taken as a proxy for uncertainty.</p></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="2.4.">Effective-Medium Calculation</head><p>We used the self-consistent scheme <ref type="bibr">(Berryman, 1980)</ref> to calculate the effective bulk and shear moduli of a two-phase, partially molten granite with a composition that is the average of seven rock samples from the most recent Kolumbo eruption (supplement of <ref type="bibr">Klaver et al., 2016)</ref>. For the solid phase, we used v P = (6.25 &#177; 0.13) km/s, v S = (3.67 &#177; 0.12) km/s, and &#961; = (2660 &#177; 20) kg/m 3 from the laboratory measurements at 200 MPa and 30&#176;C of more than 100 granite samples <ref type="bibr">(Christensen &amp; Stanley, 2003)</ref>. We corrected the velocities <ref type="bibr">(Christensen, 1979)</ref> for lithostatic pressure (66 MPa) and a solidus temperature of 700&#176;C <ref type="bibr">(Boettcher &amp; Wyllie, 1968</ref>), obtaining v P = 6.20 km/s and v S = 3.58 km/s. Thus, the temperature effect is a second-order factor and partial melting is required to explain the observed velocity anomaly. For the fluid phase, we use &#961; = 2,110 kg/m 3 and bulk modulus K = 8.08 GPa from the thermodynamic model based on the Birch-Murnaghan equation <ref type="bibr">(Ueki &amp; Iwamori, 2016)</ref>.</p><p>The assumption underlying the SCS calculation is spheroidal-shaped pores. We use 0.05-0.5 as the range of plausible aspect ratios <ref type="bibr">(Takei, 2002)</ref>, due to a lack of experimental constraints. We assumed the low-frequency, equilibrated limit <ref type="bibr">(Biot, 1956)</ref> starting with air-filled pores followed by fluid substitution according to Gassman's equation <ref type="bibr">(Gassmann, 1951)</ref>. Sensitivity analysis showed that varying input parameters other than pore aspect ratio and fluid bulk modulus (which in turn is sensitive to water content) has a negligible effect on the final result.</p></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="3.">Results</head></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="3.1.">Kolumbo Low-Velocity Anomaly</head><p>The most striking feature of the final model is a prominent low-velocity zone (LVZ) beneath Kolumbo extending from 2.1 to at least 4 km b.s.l., with a diameter of 0.6 km for the 4 km/s contour and a minimum value of 3.4 km/s at 2.55 km b.s.l. (40% reduction relative to the starting model, see below). To highlight its geometry, we display it as a negative anomaly relative to the starting model, with the absolute values (for both the starting and final model) shown in the insets (Figure <ref type="figure">3</ref>). Its shape is plume-like in the SW-NE cross-section (Y axis), thinner at the base where the wavelength is larger, and thus not produced by the directional smoothing which we used to regularize the inversion. The regularization leads to recovery of only 80% of the true amplitude as shown by synthetic tests (Figure <ref type="figure">S5</ref> in Supporting Information S1). The maximum recovered anomaly was 1.6 km/s relative to the starting 5.0 km/s (Figure <ref type="figure">3</ref>). Correcting for regularization gives approximately a 2.0 km/s anomaly (40% reduction), corresponding to a P-wave velocity of 3.0 km/s within the LVZ.</p></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="3.2.">Credibility and Fidelity of the Low-Velocity Volume</head><p>Several factors make this anomaly a robust feature required by the data. First, the synthetic tests show that a similar anomaly is recoverable by our method (Figure <ref type="figure">S5</ref> in Supporting Information S1). Second, the anomaly, although much more smeared, was already present in the high-quality starting model (Figure <ref type="figure">S1</ref> in Supporting Information S1) obtained by travel-time tomography <ref type="bibr">(Heath et al., 2019)</ref>, which has lower resolution but is more robust against artifacts compared to FWI <ref type="bibr">(Virieux &amp; Operto, 2009)</ref>. Third, the largest enhancement of the anomaly amplitude, corresponding to the largest improvement of waveform fit, was achieved during the first, low-frequency iterations, indicating that the anomaly is not produced by over-fitting of the high-frequency waveforms. Fourth, the feature is robust against different inversion strategies and data subsets. In particular, jack-knife resampling shows that it is not caused by potential outliers (Figure <ref type="figure">S4</ref> in Supporting Information S1). Although the recovered final model is likely to have errors due to data noise, inversion regularization, and the simplified physics (acoustic, isotropic, non-attenuative medium) used to calculate synthetic data, we argue that these errors are small and do not affect our conclusions (Text S2 in Supporting Information S1).</p></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="3.3.">Melt Fraction and Melt Volume</head><p>The observed low-velocity anomaly can be explained by the presence of either melt or hydrothermal fluids (magmatic gases and/or seawater). We favor the former possibility based on independent seismic reflection observations of the hydrothermal system that place the top of the hydrothermal reservoir at &#8764;0.6 km b.s.l. <ref type="bibr">(H&#252;bscher et al., 2006)</ref>. Geochemical analysis of the hydrothermal fluids suggests that interaction of magmatic gases and seawater occurs at &#8764;1 km b.s.l. <ref type="bibr">(Rizzo et al., 2019)</ref>. The hydrothermal system is not visible in our model because the shallow structure is poorly constrained by the data (see Figures <ref type="figure">S4</ref> and<ref type="figure">S5</ref> in Supporting Information S1). Nonetheless, the weak low-velocity layer at 1.4-1.9 km b.s.l. may be evidence of a volatile-rich lens. Although a multi-level hydrothermal system extending to the base of the observed anomaly is conceivable, the persistent seismic unrest down to 16 km b.s.l. <ref type="bibr">(Schmid et al., 2022)</ref> makes this possibility less likely, as explained below.</p><p>We can also rule out the hypothesis that the LVZ is caused by a purely thermal anomaly. The temperature required to explain such a strong velocity perturbation greatly exceeds the solidus temperature for granite, implying partial melting. We interpret the LVZ as a partially molten intrusion and we assume it to be granitic (rhyolitic) based on the bulk composition of lava from the 1650 AD eruption <ref type="bibr">(Cantner et al., 2014)</ref>.</p><p>We estimate the maximum melt fraction of the intrusion by comparing the maximum observed P-wave velocity anomaly of 3.0 km/s with values calculated for partially molten granite using the self-consistent effective medium approach <ref type="bibr">(Berryman, 1980)</ref>, assuming melt-filled spheroidal pores (see Methods). There is a strong trade-off between the pore geometry (aspect ratio) and melt fraction. Here we assume thin, oblate pores (melt films) of aspect ratio between 0.05 and 0.5 <ref type="bibr">(Takei, 2002)</ref>. Recalling the uncertainty in velocity of 0.3 km/s (from jack-knifing) yields melt fractions ranging from 0.26 to 0.53 (Figure <ref type="figure">4</ref>). Assuming the velocity error to be normally distributed (with &#119860;&#119860; &#119860;&#119860; = 0.1 km/s), the melt fraction is &#119860;&#119860; 0.42 &#177; 0.04 .</p><p>The total volume of the low-velocity anomaly equals 6.2 km 3 , which corresponds to a sphere of 1.1 km radius. This is probably a lower bound, as the anomaly seems to extend below the bottom of the model. The total volume of melt stored in the reservoir is ( &#119860;&#119860; 1.38 &#177; 0.32 ) km 3 , where the error bounds come from the aspect-ratio uncertainty. Note that these values are also affected by difficult-to-quantify errors due to the simplified physics used in FWI (see e.g., <ref type="bibr">Marjanovi&#263; et al., 2019)</ref> and should probably be used only in comparison to other acoustic inversions.</p></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="4.">Discussion</head></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="4.1.">Relationship With Seismic Activity</head><p>A recent seismicity study by <ref type="bibr">Schmid et al. (2022)</ref> shows that the observed anomaly coincides with the tip of a cone-shaped region hosting enhanced seismic activity in the 2006-2007 period. The earthquakes were clustered in several swarms starting with the strongest events at 6-9 depth and migrating upwards, terminating at the base of the LVZ. The swarm propagation was faster than expected for hydrothermal gases diffusing from a point source or for active diking <ref type="bibr">(Schmid et al., 2022)</ref>. However, the speed and focal mechanisms associated with the swarms remain consistent with melt ascent along pre-existing, subvertical pathways through a rheologically strong layer at 4-9 km b.s.l. <ref type="bibr">Schmid et al. (2022)</ref> interpret this seismic activity as a result of either transport  <ref type="bibr">(Hashin &amp; Shtrikman, 1963)</ref>. Colored lines correspond to different values of the pore aspect ratio listed in the key, with rhombi marking the critical porosity <ref type="bibr">(Nur et al., 1998)</ref>. The maximum observed anomaly with three error bounds from jackknifing is denoted in red.</p><p>of melt from larger depths to the observed reservoir, or formation of fractures enabling such transport which occurred after the recording period. These findings support our interpretation of a melt-filled reservoir below Kolumbo. Similar seismic activity has been recorded during several other time periods <ref type="bibr">(Andinisari et al., 2021;</ref><ref type="bibr">Bohnhoff et al., 2006;</ref><ref type="bibr">Dimitriadis et al., 2009)</ref> suggests ongoing reservoir recharge by frequent injections of magma from greater depth.</p></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="4.2.">Magma Chamber Versus Mush</head><p>The melt fraction of &#119860;&#119860; 0.42 &#177; 0.04 at the center of the velocity anomaly may be overestimated by neglecting the 6% of volatiles reported for the 1650 AD eruptive products <ref type="bibr">(Cantner et al., 2014)</ref>. However, it is likely above the critical porosity (Figure <ref type="figure">4</ref>) corresponding to the mush-magma transition <ref type="bibr">(Sparks et al., 2019)</ref>, implying rheology controlled by melt rather than crystalline framework. The observed &gt;40% reduction of P-wave velocity relative to the regional average is larger than for anomalies obtained by travel time tomography at other volcanoes studied to date. For example, 10% for Newberry <ref type="bibr">(Heath et al., 2015)</ref>, Yellowstone <ref type="bibr">(Huang et al., 2015)</ref> and Mt. St. Helens <ref type="bibr">(Kiser et al., 2018)</ref>, 17% for Montserrat <ref type="bibr">(Paulatto et al., 2019)</ref>, and 21% for Santorini <ref type="bibr">(McVey et al., 2020)</ref>. For this reason, despite the remaining uncertainty in melt fraction, we interpret the imaged reservoir as a small magma chamber rather than a mush zone, or a hybrid reservoir in which a small magma chamber is embedded in a larger mush zone.</p><p>Petrological <ref type="bibr">(Cantner et al., 2014)</ref> and numerical models <ref type="bibr">(Konstantinou, 2020)</ref> of the Kolumbo magmatic system have been based on the interpretation of the low S-wave velocity anomaly from local-earthquake tomography <ref type="bibr">(Dimitriadis et al., 2010)</ref>, which is located 5-7 km b.s.l., offset from the edifice. This interpretation is inconsistent with the seismicity data <ref type="bibr">(Schmid et al., 2022)</ref> which suggests that the source of melt feeding the shallow chamber may be located deeper than 9 km b.s.l., beneath a rheologically strong, seismically active layer <ref type="bibr">(Schmid et al., 2022)</ref>. The composition of the ascending melt is at least partially mafic, as indicated by the enclaves present in the 1650 AD lavas <ref type="bibr">(Cantner et al., 2014;</ref><ref type="bibr">Klaver et al., 2016)</ref>. We propose that frequent ascent of mafic melt from deeper levels leads to heating and remobilization <ref type="bibr">(Burgisser &amp; Bergantz, 2011)</ref> of the shallow felsic melt reservoir, and consequently to formation of a magma chamber.</p><p>We propose that the imaged shallow melt reservoir (Figure <ref type="figure">5</ref>) represents the uppermost level of a multi-level system. Surprisingly, the imaged melt reservoir is not sill-like as it is elongated vertically, with a broader top. However, this shape may not be well constrained, as indicated by the relatively large uncertainty associated with this part of the model (Figure <ref type="figure">S4</ref> in Supporting Information S1) and the smearing at the top of the recovered synthetic anomaly (Figure <ref type="figure">S5</ref> in Supporting Information S1). If we were to treat the mushroom-like shape of the anomaly as a real feature, its broad top may represent a lens of brine <ref type="bibr">(Hill et al., 2020)</ref> separated from magma ponding below the high-temperature hydrothermal system <ref type="bibr">(H&#252;bscher et al., 2015;</ref><ref type="bibr">Rizzo et al., 2016;</ref><ref type="bibr">Sigurdsson et al., 2006)</ref>. In turn, the narrow base may reflect the predominant path of magma supplied through a rheologically strong layer <ref type="bibr">(Schmid et al., 2022)</ref> that overlies a yet-to-be-imaged deeper mush zone. This may indicate a more complex multi-level system than numerical simulations which show small (hundreds of meters) magma chambers forming directly at the top of larger (kilometres) mush zones <ref type="bibr">(Booth et al., 2019;</ref><ref type="bibr">Jackson et al., 2018)</ref>.</p></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="4.3.">Long-Term Evolution and Present State</head><p>The long-term evolution of a magma chamber depends on the time-scales of melt injection, cooling, and viscous relaxation of the surrounding crust <ref type="bibr">(Degruyter &amp; Huber, 2014)</ref>. For a chamber to grow, mass injection must be faster than cooling, but slower than the viscous relaxation of elastic stress. Assuming that all of the observed melt has accumulated since the last eruption (1650 AD) and taking 2,600 kg/m 3 as the mafic melt density <ref type="bibr">(Konstantinou, 2020)</ref>, the average melt flux is equal to 4 &#215; 10 3 km 3 yr -1 , or 330 kg/s. This is of the same order of magnitude as the estimate for nearby Santorini <ref type="bibr">(Parks et al., 2012)</ref> and Montserrat <ref type="bibr">(Annen et al., 2013)</ref>. Calculations of eruption frequency of upper crustal silicic magma chambers using the approach of <ref type="bibr">Degruyter and Huber (2014)</ref> suggest that this flux can result in tens of eruptions before mechanical lock-up, for chamber volumes of up to 20 km 3 and for fluxes as small as 50 kg/s (Figure <ref type="figure">6</ref>).</p><p>The volume of mobile magma beneath Kolumbo is up to 0.02 km 3 (assuming a pore aspect-ratio of 0.05). This is twice the volume of magma injected in 2011-2012 beneath Santorini <ref type="bibr">(Parks et al., 2012)</ref>. The total volume of melt accumulated in the reservoir beneath Kolumbo (&#8764;1.4 km 3 ) is close to the &#8764;2 km 3 of dry-rock equivalent (DRE) volume of the last eruption <ref type="bibr">(Nomikou et al., 2014)</ref>. For comparison, the DRE volume of the Mt. St. Helens 1980 eruption was 3 km 3 <ref type="bibr">(Kiser et al., 2018)</ref>. The eruption recurrence interval at Kolumbo is unknown, as only the last of five recognised eruptive phases has been dated with confidence <ref type="bibr">(Nomikou et al., 2016)</ref>. A sequence stratigraphic analysis indicates that all these phases occurred during the last 1.2 Ma, suggesting an average recurrence interval of &#8764;240 ka <ref type="bibr">(Preine et al., 2021)</ref>. A lower bound of 10 ka was proposed based on seismic reflection data and the tectonic history of the region <ref type="bibr">(H&#252;bscher et al., 2015)</ref>. While this implies a considerably longer recurrence time than the interval since Kolumbo's last eruption, a sizable lens of mobile melt &#8764;2 km below the seafloor poses a serious threat of a highly explosive, tsunamigenic eruption in the near future. The high melt fraction implies that the reservoir could be readily mobilized by a larger influx of magma or an external trigger <ref type="bibr">(Caricchi et al., 2021)</ref>. The shallow reservoir depth lowers the critical overpressure needed to form and propagate a dyke to the eruptive vent <ref type="bibr">(Jellinek &amp; DePaolo, 2003)</ref>. The relatively shallow water (500 m at the crater floor) is likely to enhance rather than suppress explosivity <ref type="bibr">(D&#252;rig et al., 2020)</ref>. A tsunami and an eruptive column of tens of km with significant ashfall and extensive pumice rafts can be expected as the aftermath of the eruption <ref type="bibr">(Kusky, 2022;</ref><ref type="bibr">Nomikou et al., 2014)</ref>. Although it will probably be an order of magnitude less powerful than the recent Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai event, it may have a greater impact, considering CO 2 accumulated at the crater floor <ref type="bibr">(Carey et al., 2013)</ref>, the dense population on nearby Santorini, and the sea/air traffic in the Aegean.</p></div>
<div xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0"><head n="5.">Conclusions</head><p>Our study is the first application of active-source, seismic full-waveform imaging to an active volcano. High-resolution imaging combined with high-sensitivity earthquake monitoring <ref type="bibr">(Schmid et al., 2022)</ref> provides unique evidence for magma transport to the shallow crust and a direct image of the resulting magma chamber beneath Kolumbo volcano. The current state of the reservoir indicates that an explosive eruption of high societal impact in the future is possible (though not imminent), thus we suggest establishing a permanent observatory involving continuous earthquake monitoring <ref type="bibr">(Schmid et al., 2022)</ref> and seafloor geodesy.</p><p>Our image bridges the gap between seismic data and conceptual models of relatively small but high-melt fraction silicic bodies forming at the uppermost level of transcrustal mush systems. Remarkably, the chamber was almost entirely missed by dense travel-time tomography <ref type="bibr">(Heath et al., 2019;</ref><ref type="bibr">McVey et al., 2020)</ref>, which used the same  <ref type="bibr">(H&#252;bscher et al., 2015)</ref> and geochemical data <ref type="bibr">(Rizzo et al., 2019)</ref>. The approximate earthquake locations are based on <ref type="bibr">Schmid et al. (2022)</ref>. The velocity anomaly is extracted from the final model along the DD' profile (Figure <ref type="figure">3b</ref>). No vertical exaggeration is applied. active-source data set. Similar melt reservoirs would have gone undetected at other active volcanoes, raising the possibility that they may be more common than previously thought. Further thermomechanical modeling should give insights into the formation and longevity of such chambers.</p><p>Wider adoption of full-waveform imaging may usher a new era of volcano geophysics, increasing detectability of melt reservoirs by providing detailed images of elastic parameters, as well as more accurate background models for earthquake relocation and 3D seismic migration <ref type="bibr">(Magee et al., 2018)</ref>. With ever-increasing computing resources, elastic FWI (e.g., <ref type="bibr">Marjanovi&#263; et al., 2019)</ref> should soon be commonplace, allowing to study subaerial volcanoes as well. These targets will require modeling of irregular land surface either by using finite-element-like solvers (which require a challenging meshing step, e.g., <ref type="bibr">Komatitsch &amp; Tromp, 2002)</ref> or the augmented finite-difference method (e.g., <ref type="bibr">Chrapkiewicz, 2021)</ref>. Whether marine or land, elastic FWI will also require detailed a priori knowledge of the shallow subsurface and/ or suppressing some of the elastic effects present in the data (e.g., <ref type="bibr">Agudo et al., 2020)</ref>.</p><p>Increasingly tight constraints on the spatial distribution of melt and volume of eruptible magma in the shallow crust will substantially improve our understanding of magmatic systems and revolutionize volcanic hazard assessment.  <ref type="bibr">(Konstantinou, 2020)</ref>, crust viscosity equal to log 10 = (20.5 &#177; 1.5) log 10 (Pa&#8226;s) <ref type="bibr">(Konstantinou, 2020)</ref>, and thermal diffusivity equal to (3.0 &#177; 0.5) 10 6 m 2 /s, where the uncertainties correspond to 3&#963; of the respective distributions. This thermal diffusivity is relatively high <ref type="bibr">(Whittington et al., 2009)</ref> and was motivated by the cold upper crust and efficient heat removal via the hydrothermal system at Kolumbo. the National Science Foundation. The Geophysical Instrument Pool Potsdam provided 60 land seismometers. The Aristotle University of Thessaloniki contributed five land seismometers and the Greek military donated helicopter time for installations on the smaller islands. The data collection was funded by the National Science Foundation Grant OCE-1459794 to the University of Oregon. The data analysis was funded by Leverhulme Trust Grant RPG-2015-363 to Imperial College London. FS received funding from Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Grant 453685621. MP was funded by a NERC Independent Research Fellowship (NE/R015708/1).</p></div><note xmlns="http://www.tei-c.org/ns/1.0" place="foot" xml:id="foot_0"><p>15252027, 2022, 11, Downloaded from https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GC010475 by University Of Oregon Libraries, Wiley Online Library on [01/11/2022]. See the Terms and Conditions (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/terms-and-conditions) on Wiley Online Library for rules of use; OA articles are governed by the applicable Creative Commons License</p></note>
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