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Abstract. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ca. 950–1250 CE) and the Little Ice Age (LIA; ca. 1450–1850 CE) were periods generally characterized by respectively higher and lower temperatures in many regions. However, they have also been associated with drier and wetter conditions in areas around the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the Asian Monsoon region and in areas impacted by large-scale climatic modes like the Northern Annular Mode and Southern Annular Mode (NAM and SAM respectively). To analyze coordinated changes in large-scale hydroclimate patterns and whether similar changes also extend to other periods of the Last Millennium (LM) outside the MCA and the LIA, reconstruction-based products have been analyzed. This includes the collection of tree-ring-based drought atlases (DAs), the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR). These analyses have shown coherent changes in the hydroclimate of tropical and extratropical regions, such as northern and central South America, East Africa, western North America, western Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and the Indo-Pacific, during the MCA, the LIA and other periods of the LM. Comparisons with model simulations from the Community Earth System Model – Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) and phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) show that both external forcing and internal variability contributed to these changes, with the contribution of internal variability being particularly important in the Indo-Pacific basin and that of external forcing in the Atlantic basin. These results may help to identify not only those areas showing coordinated changes, but also those regions more impacted by the internal variability, where forced model simulations would not be expected to successfully reproduce the evolution of past actual hydroclimate changes.
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Data‐Model Comparisons of Tropical Hydroclimate Changes Over the Common Era
Abstract We examine the evidence for large‐scale tropical hydroclimate changes over the Common Era based on a compilation of 67 tropical hydroclimate records from 55 sites and assess the consistency between the reconstructed hydroclimate changes and those simulated by transient model simulations of the last millennium. Our synthesis of the proxy records reveals several regionally coherent patterns on centennial time scales. From 800 to 1000 CE, records from the eastern Pacific and parts of Mesoamerica indicate a pronounced drying event relative to background conditions of the Common Era. In addition, 1400–1700 CE is marked by pronounced hydroclimate changes across the tropics, including dry and/or isotopically enriched conditions in South and East Asia, wet and/or isotopically depleted conditions in the central Andes and southern Amazon in South America, and fresher and/or isotopically depleted conditions in the Maritime Continent. We find notable dissimilarities between the regional hydroclimate changes and global‐scale and hemispheric‐scale temperature reconstructions, indicating that more work needs to be done to understand the mechanisms of the widespread tropical hydroclimate changes during the LIA. Apropos to previous interpretations of large‐scale reorganization of tropical Pacific climate during the LIA, we do not find support for a large‐scale southward shift of the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone, while evidence for a strengthened Pacific Walker Circulation and/or an equatorward contraction of the monsoonal Asian‐Australian rain belt exists from limited geographic regions but require additional paleoclimate constraints. Transient climate model simulations exhibit weak forced long‐term tropical rainfall changes over the last millennium but provide several important insights to the proxy reconstructions.
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- PAR ID:
- 10444042
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
- Volume:
- 36
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 2572-4517
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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