skip to main content


Title: Implications of Receiver Plane Uncertainty for the Static Stress Triggering Hypothesis
Abstract

Static stress transfer from major earthquakes is commonly invoked as the primary mechanism for triggering aftershocks, but evaluating this mechanism depends on aftershock rupture plane orientations and hypocenter locations, which are often subject to significant observational uncertainty. We evaluate static stress change for an unusually large data set comprising hundreds to thousands of aftershocks following the 1997 Umbria‐Marche, 2009 L’Aquila (Italy), and 2019 Ridgecrest (California) earthquake sequences. We compare failure stress resolved on aftershock focal mechanism planes and planes that are optimally oriented (OOPs) in the regional and earthquake perturbed stress field. Like previous studies, we find that failure stress resolved on OOPs overpredicts the percentage (>70%) of triggered aftershocks relative to that predicted from observed aftershock rupture planes (∼50%–65%) from focal mechanisms solutions, independent of how nodal plane ambiguity is resolved. Further, observed aftershock nodal planes appear statistically different from OOPs. Observed rupture planes, at least for larger magnitude events (M > 3), appear to align more closely with pre‐existing tectonic structures. The inferred observational uncertainty associated with nodal plane ambiguity, plane orientation, and, to second order, hypocentral location yields a broad range of aftershocks potentially triggered by static stress changes, ranging from slightly better than random chance to nearly any aftershock promoted, particularly those further than 5 km from the causative fault. Dynamic stresses, afterslip, pore fluids, and other sources of unresolved small‐scale heterogeneity in the post‐mainshock stress field may also contribute appreciably to aftershock occurrence closer to the mainshock.

 
more » « less
NSF-PAR ID:
10444421
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
Volume:
127
Issue:
5
ISSN:
2169-9313
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ABSTRACT The 14 August 2021 Mw 7.2 Haiti earthquake struck 11 yr after the devastating 2010 event within the Enriquillo Plantain Garden (EPG) fault zone in the Southern peninsula of Haiti. Space geodetic results show that the rupture is composed of both left-lateral strike-slip and thrust motion, similar to the 2010 rupture; but aftershock locations from a local short-period network are too diffuse to precisely delineate the segments that participated in this rupture. A few days after the mainshocks, we installed 12 broadband stations in the epicentral area. Here, we use data from those stations in combination with four local Raspberry Shakes stations that were already in place as part of a citizen seismology experiment to precisely relocate 2528 aftershocks from August to December 2021, and derive 1D P- and S-crustal velocity models for this region. We show that the aftershocks delineate three north-dipping structures with different strikes, located to the north of the EPG fault. In addition, two smaller aftershock clusters occurred on the EPG fault near the hypocenter area, indicative of triggered seismicity. Focal mechanisms are in agreement with coseismic slip inversion from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data with nodal planes that are consistent with the transpressional structures illustrated by the aftershock zones. 
    more » « less
  2. ABSTRACT

    The Puerto Rico–Virgin Islands (PRVI) block lies within the Northern Caribbean Plate Boundary Zone—a zone accommodating stresses between the larger North America and Caribbean plates. Data from Global Positioning System (GPS) sites throughout the PRVI block have been used to confirm the existence of a distinct microblock in the southwest. It is no coincidence that this portion of the PRVI block is the epicentral region of the 7 January 2020 Mw 6.4 earthquake and the ensuing seismic sequence. Prior to the mainshock, the southwestern Puerto Rico (SWPR) region exhibited most of the onland seismic activity. The 2020–2021 SWPR earthquake seismic sequence has been characterized by having an atypical aftershock decay distribution occurring along multiple faults. As a result, fault parameters of the 7 January 2020 mainshock have been poorly defined by conventional seismic methods. Here, we present results from campaign and continuous GPS sites in SWPR, and compare GPS-derived displacements to those computed from the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) focal mechanism. We conclude that irrespective of which nodal plane is used, the observed coseismic displacements from GPS differ from those predicted using a simple elastic model and the NEIC focal mechanism. We infer based on these observations that the complex mainshock rupture resulted in a suboptimal double-couple solution.

     
    more » « less
  3. Abstract

    The 2021MW6.0 Yangbi, Yunnan strike‐slip earthquake occurred on an unmapped crustal fault near the Weixi‐Qiaoho‐Weishan Fault along the southeast margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Using near‐source broadband seismic data from ChinArray, we investigate the spatial and temporal rupture evolution of the mainshock using apparent moment‐rate functions (AMRFs) determined by the empirical Green's function (EGF) method. Assuming a 1D line source on the fault plane, the rupture propagated unilaterally southeastward (∼144°) over a rupture length of ∼8.0 km with an estimated rupture speed of 2.1 km/s to 2.4 km/s. A 2D coseismic slip distribution for an assumed maximum rupture propagation speed of 2.2 km/s indicates that the rupture propagated to the southeast ∼8.0 km along strike and ∼5.0 km downdip with a peak slip of ∼2.1 m before stopping near the largest foreshock, where three bifurcating subfaults intersect. Using the AMRFs, the radiated energy of the mainshock is estimated as ∼. The relatively low moment scaled radiated energyof 1.5 × 10−5and intense foreshock and aftershock activity might indicate reactivation of an immature fault. The earthquake sequence is mainly distributed along a northwest‐southeast trend, and aftershocks and foreshocks are distributed near the periphery of the mainshock large‐slip area, suggesting that the stress in the mainshock slip zone is significantly reduced to below the level for more than a few overlapping aftershock to occur.

     
    more » « less
  4. Abstract

    We conduct a detailed study of the foreshock sequence preceding the 2010Mw6.7 Yushu, Qinghai earthquake in the Tibetan plateau by examining continuous waveforms recorded at a seismic station near the mainshock rupture zone. By using a deep learning phase picker—EQTransformer and a matched‐filter technique, we identify 120 foreshocks with magnitude ranging from −0.7 to 1.6, starting with aMw4.6 foreshock approximately 2 hr before theMw6.7 Yushu mainshock. Our analyses show that the foreshock sequence follows a typical Omori's law decay with ap‐value of 0.73 and the Gutenberg‐Richer frequency‐magnitudeb‐value of 0.66. We do not find any evidence of accelerating events leading up to the Yushu mainshock. Hence, they could be considered as aftershocks of theMw4.6 earthquake. We further invert for the focal mechanisms and rupture directions for both the largest foreshock and the mainshock. TheMw4.6 foreshock likely occurred on a NE‐SW trending fault conjugating to the NW‐SE trending fault of the mainshock. Coulomb stress analysis suggests theMw4.6 foreshock induces negative stress on the mainshock source area. These observations do not support either the pre‐slip or the cascade triggering model for foreshock generation. The occurrence of the foreshock, mainshock and large aftershocks appear to be modulated by the Earth's tidal forces, likely reflecting the role of high pore‐fluid pressures. Our observations, together with other recent studies, suggest that extensional step‐overs and conjugate faults along major strike‐slip faults play an important role in generating short‐term foreshock sequences.

     
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    We develop finite element models of the coseismic displacement field accounting for the 3D elastic structures surrounding the epicentral area of the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence containing two major events of Mw7.1 and Mw6.4. The coseismic slip distribution is inferred from the surface displacement field recorded by interferometric synthetic aperture radar. The rupture dip geometry is further optimized using a novel nonlinear‐crossover‐linear inversion approach. It is found that accounting for elastic heterogeneity and fault along‐strike curvilinearity improves the fit to the observed displacement field and yields a more accurate estimate of geodetic moment and Coulomb stress changes. We observe spatial correlations among the locations of aftershocks and patches of high slip, and rock anomalous elastic properties, suggesting that the shallow crust's elastic structures possibly controlled the Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. Most of the coseismic slip with a peak slip of 7.4 m at 3.6 km depth occurred above a zone of reducedS‐wave velocity and significant post‐Mw7.1 afterslip. This implies that viscous materials or fluid presence might have contributed to the low rupture velocity of the mainshock. Moreover, the zone of high slip on the northwest‐trending fault segment is laterally bounded by two aftershock clusters, whose location is characterized by intermediate rock rigidity. Notably, some minor orthogonal faults consistently end above a subsurface rigid body. Overall, these observations of structural controls improve our understandings of the seismogenesis within incipient fault systems.

     
    more » « less