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Quantitative, broadly applicable metrics of resilience are needed to effectively manage tidal marshes into the future. Here we quantified three metrics of temporal marsh resilience: time to marsh drowning, time to marsh tipping point, and the probability of a regime shift, defined as the conditional probability of a transition to an alternative super-optimal, suboptimal, or drowned state. We used organic matter content (loss on ignition, LOI) and peat age combined with the Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model (CWEM) to track wetland development and resilience under different sea-level rise scenarios in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) of California. A 100-year hindcast of the model showed excellent agreement ( R 2 = 0.96) between observed (2.86 mm/year) and predicted vertical accretion rates (2.98 mm/year) and correctly predicted a recovery in LOI ( R 2 = 0.76) after the California Gold Rush. Vertical accretion in the tidal freshwater marshes of the Delta is dominated by organic production. The large elevation range of the vegetation combined with high relative marsh elevation provides Delta marshes with resilience and elevation capital sufficiently great to tolerate centenary sea-level rise (CLSR) as high as 200 cm. The initial relative elevation of a marsh was a strong determinant of marsh survival time and tipping point. For a Delta marsh of average elevation, the tipping point at which vertical accretion no longer keeps up with the rate of sea-level rise is 50 years or more. Simulated, triennial additions of 6 mm of sediment via episodic atmospheric rivers increased the proportion of marshes surviving from 51% to 72% and decreased the proportion drowning from 49% to 28%. Our temporal metrics provide critical time frames for adaptively managing marshes, restoring marshes with the best chance of survival, and seizing opportunities for establishing migration corridors, which are all essential for safeguarding future habitats for sensitive species.
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Marsh Sedimentation Controls Delta Top Morphology, Slope, and Mass Balance
Abstract Rising sea levels, subsidence, and decreased fluvial sediment load threaten river deltas and their wetlands. However, the feedbacks between fluvial and non‐fluvial (marsh) deposition remain weakly constrained. We investigate how non‐riverine, elevation‐controlled deposition typified by marshes impacts sediment partitioning between a delta's topset, coastal zone, and foreset by comparing a delta experiment with proxy marsh accumulation to a control. Marsh accumulation alters fluvial sediment distribution by decreasing the slope in the marsh window by ∼50%, creating a 78% larger marsh zone. Fluvial incursions into the marsh window trap 1.3 times more clastic volume. The volume exported to deep water remains unchanged. Marsh deposition shifts elevation distributions toward sea level, which produces a hypsometry akin to field‐scale deltas. The elevation‐lowering effect of marshes on an equilibrium delta shown here constitutes an unexplored feedback and an important aspect of coastal sustainability.
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- PAR ID:
- 10446172
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 49
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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