A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 °C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30°N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.
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A Global Data Set for Economic Losses of Extreme Hydrological Events During 1960‐2014
A comprehensive data set of extreme hydrological events (EHEs)—floods and droughts, consisting of 2,171 occurrences worldwide, during 1960‐2014 was compiled, and then their economic losses were normalized using a price index in U.S. dollar. The data set showed a significant increasing trend of EHEs before 2000, while a slight post‐2000 decline. Correspondingly, the EHE‐caused economic losses increased obviously before 2000 followed by a slight decrease; the post‐2000 decline could be partially attributed to the decreases in drought and flood‐prone area or climate adaptation practices. Spatially, Asia experienced most EHEs (969), corresponding to the largest share of economic losses (approximately $868 billion for floods and $50 billion for droughts, respectively), while Oceania had the least EHEs (102) and the least economic losses (approximately $19 billion for floods and $45 billion for droughts). The five countries with the highest EHE‐caused economic losses were China, United States, Canada, Australia, and India. Countries that suffered the highest flood‐caused economic losses were China, United States, and Canada. This data set provides a quantitative linkage between climate science and economic losses at a global scale, and it is beneficial for the regional climatic impact assessments and strategical development for mitigating climate change impacts.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10446439
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Water Resources Research
- Volume:
- 55
- Issue:
- 6
- ISSN:
- 0043-1397
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 5165-5175
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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