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1. Subspace Clustering of Physiological Data From Acute Traumatic Brain Injury Patients: Retrospective Analysis Based on the PROTECT III Trial

   https://doi.org/10.2196/24698  

   Ehsani, Sina; Reddy, Chandan K; Foreman, Brandon; Ratcliff, Jonathan; Subbian, Vignesh (January 2021, JMIR Biomedical Engineering)

   null (Ed.)

   Background With advances in digital health technologies and proliferation of biomedical data in recent years, applications of machine learning in health care and medicine have gained considerable attention. While inpatient settings are equipped to generate rich clinical data from patients, there is a dearth of actionable information that can be used for pursuing secondary research for specific clinical conditions. Objective This study focused on applying unsupervised machine learning techniques for traumatic brain injury (TBI), which is the leading cause of death and disability among children and adults aged less than 44 years. Specifically, we present a case study to demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of subspace clustering techniques for extracting patterns from data collected from TBI patients. Methods Data for this study were obtained from the Progesterone for Traumatic Brain Injury, Experimental Clinical Treatment–Phase III (PROTECT III) trial, which included a cohort of 882 TBI patients. We applied subspace-clustering methods (density-based, cell-based, and clustering-oriented methods) to this data set and compared the performance of the different clustering methods. Results The analyses showed the following three clusters of laboratory physiological data: (1) international normalized ratio (INR), (2) INR, chloride, and creatinine, and (3) hemoglobin and hematocrit. While all subclustering algorithms had a reasonable accuracy in classifying patients by mortality status, the density-based algorithm had a higher F1 score and coverage. Conclusions Clustering approaches serve as an important step for phenotype definition and validation in clinical domains such as TBI, where patient and injury heterogeneity are among the major reasons for failure of clinical trials. The results from this study provide a foundation to develop scalable clustering algorithms for further research and validation. 

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2. Federated Fuzzy Clustering for Longitudinal Health Data

   Balkus, Salvador; Fang, Hua; Wang, Honggang (December 2022, IEEEACM Conference on Connected Health Applications Systems and Engineering Technologies CHASE)

   Traditional implementations of federated learning for preserving data privacy are unsuitable for longitudinal health data. To remedy this, we develop a federated enhanced fuzzy c-means clustering (FeFCM) algorithm that can identify groups of patients based on complex behavioral intervention responses. FeFCM calculates a global cluster model by incorporating data from multiple healthcare institutions without requiring patient observations to be shared. We evaluate FeFCM on simulated clusters as well as empirical data from four different dietary health studies in Massachusetts. Results find that FeFCM converges rapidly and achieves desirable clustering performance. As a result, FeFCM can promote pattern recognition in longitudinal health studies across hundreds of collaborating healthcare institutions while ensuring patient privacy. 

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3. Detection of significant antiviral drug effects on COVID-19 with reasonable sample sizes in randomized controlled trials: A modeling study

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003660  

   Iwanami, Shoya; Ejima, Keisuke; Kim, Kwang Su; Noshita, Koji; Fujita, Yasuhisa; Miyazaki, Taiga; Kohno, Shigeru; Miyazaki, Yoshitsugu; Morimoto, Shimpei; Nakaoka, Shinji; et al (July 2021, PLOS Medicine)

   Kretzschmar, Mirjam E. (Ed.)

   Background Development of an effective antiviral drug for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global health priority. Although several candidate drugs have been identified through in vitro and in vivo models, consistent and compelling evidence from clinical studies is limited. The lack of evidence from clinical trials may stem in part from the imperfect design of the trials. We investigated how clinical trials for antivirals need to be designed, especially focusing on the sample size in randomized controlled trials. Methods and findings A modeling study was conducted to help understand the reasons behind inconsistent clinical trial findings and to design better clinical trials. We first analyzed longitudinal viral load data for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) without antiviral treatment by use of a within-host virus dynamics model. The fitted viral load was categorized into 3 different groups by a clustering approach. Comparison of the estimated parameters showed that the 3 distinct groups were characterized by different virus decay rates ( p -value < 0.001). The mean decay rates were 1.17 d −1 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.27 d −1 ), 0.777 d −1 (0.716 to 0.838 d −1 ), and 0.450 d −1 (0.378 to 0.522 d −1 ) for the 3 groups, respectively. Such heterogeneity in virus dynamics could be a confounding variable if it is associated with treatment allocation in compassionate use programs (i.e., observational studies). Subsequently, we mimicked randomized controlled trials of antivirals by simulation. An antiviral effect causing a 95% to 99% reduction in viral replication was added to the model. To be realistic, we assumed that randomization and treatment are initiated with some time lag after symptom onset. Using the duration of virus shedding as an outcome, the sample size to detect a statistically significant mean difference between the treatment and placebo groups (1:1 allocation) was 13,603 and 11,670 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) per group if all patients are enrolled regardless of timing of randomization. The sample size was reduced to 584 and 458 (when the antiviral effect was 95% and 99%, respectively) if only patients who are treated within 1 day of symptom onset are enrolled. We confirmed the sample size was similarly reduced when using cumulative viral load in log scale as an outcome. We used a conventional virus dynamics model, which may not fully reflect the detailed mechanisms of viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. The model needs to be calibrated in terms of both parameter settings and model structure, which would yield more reliable sample size calculation. Conclusions In this study, we found that estimated association in observational studies can be biased due to large heterogeneity in viral dynamics among infected individuals, and statistically significant effect in randomized controlled trials may be difficult to be detected due to small sample size. The sample size can be dramatically reduced by recruiting patients immediately after developing symptoms. We believe this is the first study investigated the study design of clinical trials for antiviral treatment using the viral dynamics model. 

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4. Machine learning enabled subgroup analysis with real-world data to inform clinical trial eligibility criteria design

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-27856-1  

   Xu, Jie; Zhang, Hao; Zhang, Hansi; Bian, Jiang; Wang, Fei (December 2023, Scientific Reports)

   Abstract Overly restrictive eligibility criteria for clinical trials may limit the generalizability of the trial results to their target real-world patient populations. We developed a novel machine learning approach using large collections of real-world data (RWD) to better inform clinical trial eligibility criteria design. We extracted patients’ clinical events from electronic health records (EHRs), which include demographics, diagnoses, and drugs, and assumed certain compositions of these clinical events within an individual’s EHRs can determine the subphenotypes—homogeneous clusters of patients, where patients within each subgroup share similar clinical characteristics. We introduced an outcome-guided probabilistic model to identify those subphenotypes, such that the patients within the same subgroup not only share similar clinical characteristics but also at similar risk levels of encountering severe adverse events (SAEs). We evaluated our algorithm on two previously conducted clinical trials with EHRs from the OneFlorida+ Clinical Research Consortium. Our model can clearly identify the patient subgroups who are more likely to suffer or not suffer from SAEs as subphenotypes in a transparent and interpretable way. Our approach identified a set of clinical topics and derived novel patient representations based on them. Each clinical topic represents a certain clinical event composition pattern learned from the patient EHRs. Tested on both trials, patient subgroup (#SAE=0) and patient subgroup (#SAE>0) can be well-separated by k-means clustering using the inferred topics. The inferred topics characterized as likely to align with the patient subgroup (#SAE>0) revealed meaningful combinations of clinical features and can provide data-driven recommendations for refining the exclusion criteria of clinical trials. The proposed supervised topic modeling approach can infer the clinical topics from the subphenotypes with or without SAEs. The potential rules for describing the patient subgroups with SAEs can be further derived to inform the design of clinical trial eligibility criteria. 

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5. Towards Fair Patient-Trial Matching via Patient-Criterion Level Fairness Constraint

   Chia-Yuan Chang, Jiayi Yuan (January 2024, AMIA2023)

   Clinical trials are indispensable in developing new treatments, but they face obstacles in patient recruitment and retention, hindering the enrollment of necessary participants. To tackle these challenges, deep learning frameworks have been created to match patients to trials. These frameworks calculate the similarity between patients and clinical trial eligibility criteria, considering the discrepancy between inclusion and exclusion criteria. Recent studies have shown that these frameworks outperform earlier approaches. However, deep learning models may raise fairness issues in patient-trial matching when certain sensitive groups of individuals are underrepresented in clinical trials, leading to incomplete or inaccurate data and potential harm. To tackle the issue of fairness, this work proposes a fair patient-trial matching framework by generating a patient-criterion level fairness constraint. The proposed framework considers the inconsistency between the embedding of inclusion and exclusion criteria among patients of different sensitive groups. The experimental results on real-world patient-trial and patient-criterion matching tasks demonstrate that the proposed framework can successfully alleviate the predictions that tend to be biased. 

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