We examine the response of the Community Earth System Model Versions 1 and 2 (CESM1 and CESM2) to abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO
We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (≥800‐year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO2simulations with shorter (150‐ and 300‐year) coupled atmosphere‐ocean simulations and slab ocean models (SOMs). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1–150 underestimate those from SOM (−8% ± 13%) and long (−14% ± 8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21–150 improved agreement with SOM (−2% ± 14%) and long (−8% ± 10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51–150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (−4% ± 11%). While ECS estimates from current generation U.S. models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1–150 range from 2.6°C to 5.3°C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2°C to 7.0°C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10448159
- Publisher / Repository:
- DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Volume:
- 47
- Issue:
- 16
- ISSN:
- 0094-8276
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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