Species are frequently responding to contemporary climate change by shifting to higher elevations and poleward to track suitable climate space. However, depending on local conditions and species’ sensitivity, the nature of these shifts can be highly variable and difficult to predict. Here, we examine how the American pika (
The largest and tallest mountain range in the contiguous United States, the Southern Rocky Mountains, has warmed considerably in the past several decades due to anthropogenic climate change. Herein we examine how 47 mammal elevational ranges (27 rodent and 4 shrew species) have changed from their historical distributions (1886–1979) to their contemporary distributions (post 2005) along 2,400‐m elevational gradients in the Front Range and San Juan Mountains of Colorado. Historical elevational ranges were based on more than 4,580 georeferenced museum specimen and publication records. Contemporary elevational ranges were based on 7,444 records from systematic sampling efforts and museum specimen records. We constructed Bayesian models to estimate the probability a species was present, but undetected, due to undersampling at each 50‐m elevational bin for each time period and mountain range. These models leveraged individual‐level detection probabilities, the number and patchiness of detections across 50‐m bands of elevation, and a decaying likelihood of presence from last known detections. We compared 95% likelihood elevational ranges between historical and contemporary time periods to detect directional change. Responses were variable as 26 mammal ranges changed upward, 6 did not change, 11 changed downward, and 4 were extirpated locally. The average range shift was 131 m upward, while exclusively montane species shifted upward more often (75%) and displayed larger average range shifts (346 m). The best predictors of upper limit and total directional change were species with higher maximum latitude in their geographic range, montane affiliation, and the study mountain was at the southern edge of their geographic range. Thus, mammals in the Southern Rocky Mountains serve as harbingers of more changes to come, particularly for montane, cold‐adapted species in the southern portion of their ranges.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10448922
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecology
- Volume:
- 102
- Issue:
- 4
- ISSN:
- 0012-9658
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract Ochotona princeps ), a philopatric, montane lagomorph, responds to climatic gradients at three spatial scales. Using mixed‐effects modeling in an information‐theoretic approach, we evaluated a priori model suites regarding predictors of site occupancy, relative abundance, and elevational‐range retraction across 760 talus patches, nested within 64 watersheds across the Northern Rocky Mountains of North America, during 2017–2020. The top environmental predictors differed across these response metrics. Warmer temperatures in summer and winter were associated with lower occupancy, lower relative abundances, and greater elevational retraction across watersheds. Occupancy was also strongly influenced by habitat patch size, but only when combined with climate metrics such as actual evapotranspiration. Using a second analytical approach, acute heat stress and summer precipitation best explained retraction residuals (i.e., the relative extent of retraction given the original elevational range of occupancy). Despite the study domain occurring near the species’ geographic‐range center, where populations might have higher abundances and be at lower risk of climate‐related stress, 33.9% of patches showed evidence of recent extirpations. Pika‐extirpated sites averaged 1.44℃ warmer in summer than did occupied sites. Additionally, the minimum elevation of pika occupancy has retracted upslope in 69% of watersheds (mean: 281 m). Our results emphasize the nuance associated with evaluating species’ range dynamics in response to climate gradients, variability, and temperature exceedances, especially in regions where species occupy gradients of conditions that may constitute multiple range edges. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of evaluating diverse drivers across response metrics to improve the predictive accuracy of widely used, correlative models. -
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Abstract Aim While latitudinal and elevational gradients of range size have been thoroughly studied, the ways these gradients might interact with each other to shape species distributions in complex montane environments are not well understood. We examined how elevational and latitudinal gradients interact to structure individual species’ distributions and larger geographic range size patterns.
Location Neotropics.
Taxa Two epiphytic plant genera:
Peperomia andElaphoglossum .Methods We compiled 35,382 GBIF records for 505 species, calculated species’ latitudinal and elevational range extents, and examined gradients in richness and range size. For individual species, we analysed the relationship between elevational and latitudinal occurrences.
Results Approximately 50% of species demonstrate a significant, negative relationship between their elevational and latitudinal occurrences; most of these species occupy a non‐random, relatively narrow range of mean annual temperatures across their latitudinal distribution. Across species there is a positive relationship between latitudinal and elevational extent, a phenomenon we hereafter refer to as ‘Stevens’ pattern’. Average latitudinal extent of species’ ranges increased at higher latitudes, in support of Rapoport's rule. Average elevational extent increased with elevation in the global dataset (consistent with Rapoport's elevational rule), but most subsets of the data demonstrated a peak in average extent size at mid‐elevations.
Main conclusions The prevalence of species with negative elevation‐by‐latitude relationships, along with their non‐random tracking of temperature, suggests that many tropical species with broad geographic distributions are more temperature sensitive than their broad ranges might otherwise suggest. Consequently, even tropical species that occur across a wide range of latitudes and elevations might be threatened by climate change. These wide‐ranging species drive the occurrence of two biogeographic patterns: Rapoport's elevational rule and Stevens’ pattern. Finally, while Rapoport's rule and its elevational corollary were supported in part, the unexpected occurrence of many species restricted to high elevations near the equator suggests a possible focus for conservation effort.
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Males, Jamie (Ed.)Mountains hold much of the world’s taxonomic diversity, but global climate change threatens this diversity by altering the distributions of montane species. While numerous studies have documented upslope shifts in elevational ranges, these patterns are highly variable across geographic regions and taxa. This variation in how species’ range shifts are manifesting along elevational gradients likely reflects the diversity of mechanisms that determines elevational ranges and modulates movements, and stands in contrast to latitudinal gradients, where range shifts show less variability and appear more predictable. Here, we review observed elevational range shifts in a single taxonomic group–birds–a group that has received substantial research attention and thus provides a useful context for exploring variability in range shifts while controlling for the mechanisms that drive range shifts across broader taxonomic groups. We then explore the abiotic and biotic factors that are known to define elevational ranges, as well as the constraints that may prevent birds from shifting. Across the literature, temperature is generally invoked as the prime driver of range shifts while the role of precipitation is more neglected. However, temperature is less likely to act directly on elevational ranges, instead mediating biotic factors such as habitat and food availability, predator activity, and parasite prevalence, which could in turn modulate range shifts. Dispersal ability places an intrinsic constraint on elevational range shifts, exacerbated by habitat fragmentation. While current research provides strong evidence for the importance of various drivers of elevational ranges and shifts, testing the relative importance of these factors and achieving a more holistic view of elevational gradients will require integration of expanding datasets, novel technologies, and innovative techniques.more » « less
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Abstract Aim Physiological tolerances and biotic interactions along habitat gradients are thought to influence species occurrence. Distributional differences caused by such forces are particularly noticeable on tropical mountains, where high species turnover along elevational gradients occurs over relatively short distances and elevational distributions of particular species can shift among mountains. Such shifts are interpreted as evidence of the importance of spatial variation in interspecific competition and habitat or climatic gradients. To assess the relative importance of competition and compression of habitat and climatic zones in setting range limits, we examined differences in elevational ranges of forest bird species among four Bornean mountains with distinct features.
Location Bornean mountains Kinabalu, Mulu, Pueh and Topap Oso.
Taxon Rain forest bird communities along elevational gradients.
Methods We surveyed the elevational ranges of rain forest birds on four mountains in Borneo to test which environmental variables—habitat zone compression or presence of likely competitors—best predicted differences in elevational ranges of species among mountains. For this purpose, we used two complementary tests: a comparison of elevational range limits between pairs of mountains, and linear mixed models with naïve occupancy as the response variable.
Results We found that lowland species occur higher in elevation on two small mountains compared to Mt. Mulu. This result is inconsistent with the expectation that distributions of habitats are elevationally compressed on small mountains, but is consistent with the hypothesis that a reduction in competition (likely diffuse) on short mountains, which largely lack montane specialist species, allows lowland species to occur higher in elevation. The relative influence of competition changes with elevation, and the correlation between lower range limits of montane species and the distribution of their competitors was weaker than in lowland species.
Main conclusions These findings provide support for the importance of biotic interactions in setting elevational range limits of tropical bird species, although abiotic gradients explain the majority of distribution patterns. Thus, models predicting range shifts under climate change scenarios must include not only climatic variables, as is currently most common, but also information on potentially resulting changes in species interactions, especially for lowland species.
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Abstract Aim High‐elevation plants are disproportionally affected by climate change. As temperatures rise, the amount of available alpine habitat in the Rocky Mountains will decrease resulting in potential local extinctions of plant species. In addition to the direct effects of climate‐driven habitat loss, alpine plants must also respond to indirect effects, such as changes in disturbance regimes. One notable shift is the increase of wildfire frequency in regions where fire was previously rare or absent, including the alpine. We hypothesized that direct climatic changes compounded with increased wildfire frequency will reduce the future suitable habitat of high‐elevation plants more than if climate was considered alone.
Location Rocky Mountain Floristic Region, western North America.
Taxon Saxifraga austromontana (Saxifragaceae), a wildflower endemic to high elevations of the Rocky Mountain Floristic Region.Methods Our approach integrated historical herbarium records, field surveys, remote sensing, species distribution models, historic wildfire data, and predictive models.
Results Our results indicate wildfire has significantly reduced the abundance and increased the likelihood of extirpation for
S. austromontana . Increased fire frequency compounded with direct climatic changes will likely reduce the range of the species by approximately 43% by 2050 compared to 38% due to climate alone, under a moderateCO 2emissions scenario. The influence of wildfire varies regionally. For instance, the Middle Rockies will likely lose 74% of its suitable habitat of which 16% may be lost due to fire, while other regions, such as the northern range, will be less negatively affected by direct and indirect effects.Main Conclusions Our evidence that increased wildfire frequency will compound the impacts of climate change on alpine taxa in North America led to the development of a new, general hypothesis on the fundamental interaction between direct and indirect effects of climate change on species range reductions.
