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1. Predicting climate change impacts on critical fisheries species in Fijian marine systems and its implications for protected area spatial planning

   https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13709  

   Lawson, Katherine N. ; Lang, Karina M. ; Rabaiotti, Daniella ; Drew, Joshua ( August 2023 , Diversity and Distributions)

   Spatially explicit protections of coastal habitats determined on the current distribution of species and ecosystems risk becoming obsolete in 100 years if the movement of species ranges outpaces management action. Hence, a critical step of conservation is predicting the efficacy of management actions in future. We aimed to determine how foundational, habitat‐building species will respond to climate change in Fiji.

   The Republic of Fiji.

   We develop species distribution models (SDMs) using MaxEnt, General Additive Models and Boosted Regression Trees and publicly available data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility to predict changes in distribution of suitable habitat for mangrove forests, coral habitat, seagrass meadows and critical fisheries invertebrates under several IPCC climate change scenarios in 2070 or 2100. We then overlay predicted distribution models onto existing Fijian protected area network to assess whether today's conservation measures will afford protection to tomorrow's distributions.

   We found that mangrove suitability is projected to decrease along the Coral Coast and increase northward towards the Yasawa Islands due to precipitation changes. The response of seagrass meadows was predicted to be inconsistent and dependent on the climate scenario. Meanwhile, suitability for coral reefs was not predicted to decline significantly overall. The mangrove crabScylla serrata, an important resource for fisherwomen in Fiji, is projected to increase in habitat suitability while economically important sea cucumber species will have highly variable responses to climate change.

   Species distribution models are a critical tool for conservation managers, as linking spatial distribution data with future climate change scenarios can aid in the creation and resiliency of protected area programmes. New protected area designations should consider the future distribution of species to maximize benefits to those taxa.

    

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2. Unprecedented distribution data for Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia and Y. jaegeriana) reveal contemporary climate associations of a Mojave Desert icon

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2023.1266892  

   Esque, Todd C ; Shryock, Daniel F ; Berry, Gabrielle A ; Chen, Felicia C ; DeFalco, Lesley A ; Lewicki, Sabrina M ; Cunningham, Brent L ; Gaylord, Eddie J ; Poage, Caitlan S ; Gantz, Gretchen E ; et al ( December 2023 , Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution)

   Forecasting range shifts in response to climate change requires accurate species distribution models (SDMs), particularly at the margins of species' ranges. However, most studies producing SDMs rely on sparse species occurrence datasets from herbarium records and public databases, along with random pseudoabsences. While environmental covariates used to fit SDMS are increasingly precise due to satellite data, the availability of species occurrence records is still a large source of bias in model predictions. We developed distribution models for hybridizing sister species of western and eastern Joshua trees (Yucca brevifoliaandY. jaegeriana, respectively), iconic Mojave Desert species that are threatened by climate change and habitat loss.

   We conducted an intensive visual grid search of online satellite imagery for 672,043 0.25 km²grid cells to identify the two species' presences and absences on the landscape with exceptional resolution, and field validated 29,050 cells in 15,001 km of driving. We used the resulting presence/absence data to train SDMs for each Joshua tree species, revealing the contemporary environmental gradients (during the past 40 years) with greatest influence on the current distribution of adult trees.

   While the environments occupied byY. brevifoliaandY. jaegerianawere similar in total aridity, they differed with respect to seasonal precipitation and temperature ranges, suggesting the two species may have differing responses to climate change. Moreover, the species showed differing potential to occupy each other's geographic ranges: modeled potential habitat forY. jaegerianaextends throughout the range ofY. brevifolia, while potential habitat forY. brevifoliais not well represented within the range ofY. jaegeriana.

   By reproducing the current range of the Joshua trees with high fidelity, our dataset can serve as a baseline for future research, monitoring, and management of this species, including an increased understanding of dynamics at the trailing and leading margins of the species' ranges and potential for climate refugia.

    

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3. Historical interactions are predicted to be disrupted under future climate change: The case of lace lichen and valley oak

   https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13442  

   Zhao, Jian‐Li ; Werth, Silke ; Ikegami, Makihiko ; Gugger, Paul F. ; Sork, Victoria L. ( November 2018 , Journal of Biogeography)

   The distributions and interactions of co‐occurring species may change if their ranges shift asymmetrically in response to rapid climate change. We aim to test whether two currently interacting taxa, valley oak (Quercus lobata) and lace lichen (Ramalina menziesii), have had a long‐lasting historical association and are likely to continue to associate in the future.

   Central western California, western United States of America

   Using population genetic analyses andMaxEntsoftware for ecological niche modelling, we estimate species’ distributions during the Last Interglacial, the Last Glacial Maximum, present, and future periods. Mantel and vertex (genetic connection) tests were used to examine the spatial congruence among taxa. To compare the modelled response to climate change, we estimated migration speed between respective time periods using vector analysis.

   We found significant genetic congruence between valley oak and the lichen's green algal photobiont, independent of geographic isolation and habitat isolation, which is consistent with long‐term association. Ecological niche models under past and future climate scenarios indicate that overlap of climatic niche sharing between valley oak and lace lichen might decrease in the future. Our models indicate that the speed of shifts in climate niches between these two taxa differed significantly in past periods from that of the present period.

   Our findings reveal that historical interactions between valley oak and lace lichen correlate with long‐term sharing of past climate niches. However, the future association of lace lichen with valley oak may be disrupted in parts of its current distribution due to differential discordance of climate niche shifts, species’ movements and generation times. This study illustrates the processes and patterns that allow long‐term association during historic climate change and how they are likely to change during rapid climate change.

    

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4. Phylogeographic analysis of shrubby beardtongues reveals range expansions during the Last Glacial Maximum and implicates the Klamath Mountains as a hotspot for hybridization

   https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.15992  

   Stone, Benjamin W. ; Wolfe, Andrea D. ( June 2021 , Molecular Ecology)

   Quaternary glacial cycles often altered species' geographic distributions, which in turn altered the geographic structure of species' genetic diversity. In many cases, glacial expansion forced species in temperate climates to contract their ranges and reside in small pockets of suitable habitat (refugia), where they were likely to interact closely with other species, setting the stage for potential gene exchange. These introgression events, in turn, would have degraded species boundaries, making the inference of phylogenetic relationships challenging. Using high‐throughput sequence data, we employed a combination of species distribution models and hybridization tests to assess the effect of glaciation on the geographic distributions, phylogenetic relationships, and patterns of gene flow of five species ofPenstemonsubgenusDasanthera, long‐lived shrubby angiosperms distributed throughout the Pacific Northwest of North America. Surprisingly, we found that rather than reducing their ranges to small refugia, mostPenstemonsubgenusDasantheraspecies experienced increased suitable habitat during the Last Glacial Maximum relative to the present day. We also found substantial evidence for gene exchange between species, with the bulk of introgression events occurring in or near the Klamath Mountains of southwestern Oregon and northwestern California. Subsequently, our phylogenetic inference reveals blurred taxonomic boundaries in the Klamath Mountains, where introgression is most prevalent. Our results question the classical paradigm of temperate species' responses to glaciation and highlight the importance of contextualizing phylogenetic inference with species' histories of introgression.

    

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5. Habitat use as indicator of adaptive capacity to climate change

   https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13223  

   Teitelbaum, Claire S. ; Sirén, Alexej P. K. ; Coffel, Ethan ; Foster, Jane R. ; Frair, Jacqueline L. ; Hinton, Joseph W. ; Horton, Radley M. ; Kramer, David W. ; Lesk, Corey ; Raymond, Colin ; et al ( January 2021 , Diversity and Distributions)

   Populations of cold‐adapted species at the trailing edges of geographic ranges are particularly vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change from the combination of exposure to warm temperatures and high sensitivity to heat. Many of these species are predicted to decline under future climate scenarios, but they could persist if they can adapt to warming climates either physiologically or behaviourally. We aim to understand local variation in contemporary habitat use and use this information to identify signs of adaptive capacity. We focus on moose (Alces alces), a charismatic species of conservation and public interest.

   The northeastern United States, along the trailing edge of the moose geographic range in North America.

   We compiled data on occurrences and habitat use of moose from remote cameras and GPS collars across the northeastern United States. We use these data to build habitat suitability models at local and regional spatial scales and then to predict future habitat suitability under climate change. We also use fine‐scale GPS data to model relationships between habitat use and temperature on a daily temporal scale and to predict future habitat use.

   We find that habitat suitability for moose will decline under a range of climate change scenarios. However, moose across the region differ in their use of climatic and habitat space, indicating that they could exhibit adaptive capacity. We also find evidence for behavioural responses to weather, where moose increase their use of forested wetland habitats in warmer places and/or times.

   Our results suggest that there will be significant shifts in moose distribution due to climate change. However, if there is spatial variation in thermal tolerance, trailing‐edge populations could adapt to climate change. We highlight that prioritizing certain habitats for conservation (i.e., thermal refuges) could be crucial for this adaptation.

    

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