Hurricanes Isaac (2012), Harvey (2017), and Irma (2017) were storms with different geophysical characteristics and track forecast consistencies. Despite the differences, common themes emerged from the perception of track forecasts from evacuees for each storm. Surveys with a mixture of closed and open-ended responses were conducted during the evacuations of each storm while the storm characteristics and decision-making were fresh in the minds of evacuees. Track perception accuracy for each evacuee was quantified by taking the difference between three metrics: perceived track and official track (PT − OT), perceived track and forecast track (PT − FT), and home location and perceived track (HL − PT). Evacuees from Hurricanes Isaac and Harvey displayed a tendency to perceive hurricane tracks as being closer to their home locations than what was forecast to occur and what actually occurred. The large sample collected for Hurricane Irma provided a chance to statistically verify some of the hypotheses generated from Isaac and Harvey. Results from Hurricane Irma confirmed that evacuees expected a storm to be closer to their home locations after controlling for regional influences. Furthermore, participants with greater previous hurricane experience perceived a track as being closer to their home locations, and participants residing in zip codes corresponding with nonmandatory evacuation zones also perceived tracks as being closer to their home locations. These findings suggest that most evacuees from hurricanes in the United States appear to perceive storms as being closer to their home locations than they are and overestimate wind speeds at their homes, thus overestimating the true danger from landfalling hurricanes in many storms.
Understanding how information use contributes to uncertainties surrounding evacuation decisions is crucial during disasters. While literature increasingly establishes that people consult multiple information sources in disaster situations, little is known about the patterns in which multiple media and personal network sources are combined simultaneously and sequentially across decision‐making phases. We address this gap using survey data collected from households in Jacksonville, Florida affected by 2016's Hurricane Matthew. Results direct attention to perceived consistency of information as a key predictor of uncertainty regarding hurricane impact and evacuation logistics. Frequently utilizing National Weather Service, national and local TV channels, and personal network contacts contributed to higher perceived consistency of information, while the use of other local and online sources was associated with lower perceived consistency. Furthermore, combining a larger number of media and official sources predicted higher levels of perceived information consistency. One's perception of information amount did not significantly explain uncertainty. This study contributes to the theorizing of individuals' information environment from the perspective of media and network multiplexity and provides practical implications regarding the need of information coordination for improved evacuation decision‐making.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10450711
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology
- Volume:
- 72
- Issue:
- 7
- ISSN:
- 2330-1635
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 885-900
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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