Species with different life histories and communities that vary in their seasonal constraints tend to shift their phenology (seasonal timing) differentially in response to climate warming. We investigate how these variable phenological shifts aggregate to influence phenological overlap within communities. Phenological advancements of later season species and extended durations of early season species may increase phenological overlap, with implications for species' interactions such as resource competition. We leverage extensive historic (1958–1960) and recent (2006–2015) weekly survey data for communities of grasshoppers along a montane elevation gradient to assess the impact of climate on shifts in the phenology and abundance distributions of species. We then examine how these responses are influenced by the seasonal timing of species and elevation, and how in aggregate they influence degrees of phenological overlap within communities. In warmer years, abundance distributions shift earlier in the season and become broader. Total abundance responds variably among species and we do not detect a significant response across species. Shifts in abundance distributions are not strongly shaped by species' seasonal timing or sites of variable elevations. The area of phenological overlap increases in warmer years due to shifts in the relative seasonal timing of compared species. Species that overwinter as nymphs increasingly overlap with later season species that advance their phenology. The days of phenological overlap also increase in warm years but the response varies across sites of variable elevation. Our phenological overlap metric based on comparing single events—the dates of peak abundance—does not shift significantly with warming. Phenological shifts are more complex than shifts in single dates such as first occurrence. As abundance distributions shift earlier and become broader in warm years, phenological overlap increases. Our analysis suggests that overall grasshopper abundance is relatively robust to climate and associated phenological shifts but we find that increased overlap can decrease abundance, potentially by strengthening species interactions such as resource competition.
Understanding how abiotic conditions influence dispersal patterns of organisms is important for understanding the degree to which species can track and persist in the face of changing climate. The goal of this study was to understand how weather conditions influence the dispersal pattern of multiple nonmigratory grasshopper species from lower elevation grassland habitats in which they complete their life‐cycles to higher elevations that extend beyond their range limits. Using over a decade of weekly spring to late‐summer field survey data along an elevational gradient, we explored how abundance and richness of dispersing grasshoppers were influenced by temperature, precipitation, and wind speed and direction. We also examined how changes in population sizes at lower elevations might influence these patterns. We observed that the abundance of dispersing grasshoppers along the gradient declined 4‐fold from the foothills to the subalpine and increased with warmer conditions and when wind flow patterns were mild or in the downslope direction. Thirty‐eight unique grasshopper species from lowland sites were detected as dispersers across the survey years, and warmer years and weak upslope wind conditions also increased the richness of these grasshoppers. The pattern of grasshoppers along the gradient was not sex biased. The positive effect of temperature on dispersal rates was likely explained by an increase in dispersal propensity rather than by an increase in the density of grasshoppers at low elevation sites. The results of this study support the hypothesis that the dispersal patterns of organisms are influenced by changing climatic conditions themselves and as such, that this context‐dependent dispersal response should be considered when modeling and forecasting the ability of species to respond to climate change.
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10450911
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecology and Evolution
- Volume:
- 10
- Issue:
- 24
- ISSN:
- 2045-7758
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 14411-14422
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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