skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


Title: Analytical Prediction of Seismicity Rate Due to Tides and Other Oscillating Stresses
Abstract Oscillatory stresses are ubiquitous on Earth and other solid‐surface bodies. Tides and seasonal signals perpetually stress faults in the crust. Relating seismicity to these stresses offers fundamental insight into earthquake triggering. We present a simple model that describes seismicity rate due to perpetual oscillatory stresses. The model applies to large‐amplitude, nonharmonic, and quasiperiodic stressing. However, it is not valid for periods similar to the characteristic timeta. We show that seismicity rate from short‐period stressing scales with the stress amplitude, but for long periods with the stressing rate. Further, that background seismicity rateris equal to the average seismicity rate during short‐period stressing. We suggest thatAσ0may be underestimated if stresses are approximated by a single harmonic function. We revisit Manga et al. (2019,https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082892), which analyzed the tidal triggering of marsquakes and provide a rescaling of their seismicity rate response that offers a self‐consistent comparison of different hydraulic conditions.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1822214
PAR ID:
10451678
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  
Publisher / Repository:
DOI PREFIX: 10.1029
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Geophysical Research Letters
Volume:
47
Issue:
23
ISSN:
0094-8276
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. ; ; ; (, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth)
    Abstract Dynamic earthquake triggering is commonly identified through the temporal correlation between increased seismicity rates and global earthquakes that are possible triggering events. However, correlation does not imply causation. False positives may occur when unrelated seismicity rate changes coincidently occur at around the time of candidate triggers. We investigate the expected false positive rate in Southern California with globalM ≥ 6 earthquakes as candidate triggers. We compute the false positive rate by applying the statistical tests used by DeSalvio and Fan (2023),https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487to synthetic earthquake catalogs with no real dynamic triggering. We find a false positive rate of ∼3.5%–8.5% when realistic earthquake clustering is present, consistent with the 95% confidence typically used in seismology. However, when this false positive rate is applied to the tens of thousands of spatial‐temporal windows in Southern California tested in DeSalvio and Fan (2023),https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487, thousands of false positives are expected. The expected false positive occurrence is large enough to explain the observed apparent triggering following 70% of large global earthquakes (DeSalvio & Fan, 2023,https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026487), without requiring any true dynamic triggering. Aside from the known triggering from the nearby El Mayor‐Cucapah, Mexico, earthquake, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the reported triggering are indistinguishable from random false positives. This implies that best practice for dynamic triggering studies that depend on temporal correlation is to estimate the false positive rate and investigate whether the observed apparent triggering is distinguishable from the correlations that may occur by chance. 
    more » « less
  2. (, Geophysical Research Letters)
    Abstract This letter compares the predictions of two expressions proposed for the porosity evolution in the context of rate and state friction. One (Segall & Rice, 1995,https://doi.org/10.1029/95jb02403) depends only on the sliding velocity; the other (Sleep, 1995,https://doi.org/10.1029/94jb03340) depends only on the state variable. Simulations of both are similar for velocity stepping and slide‐hold‐slide experiments. They differ significantly for normal effective stress jumps at constant sliding velocity. Segall and Rice (1995,https://doi.org/10.1029/95jb02403) predicts no change in the porosity; Sleep (1995,https://doi.org/10.1029/94jb03340) does. Simulation with a spring‐block model indicates that the magnitude of rapid slip events is essentially the same for the two formulations. Variations of porosity and induced pore pressure near rapid slip events are similar and consistent with experimental observations. Predicted porosity variations during slow slip intervals and the time at which rapid slip events occur are significantly different. The simulation indicates that changes in friction stress due to pore pressure changes exceed those due to rate and state effects. 
    more » « less
  3. (, Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics)
    Abstract This paper reports our simulations of the volume emission rate of the O(1D) redline nightglow perturbed by waves traveling across the thermosphere at around 250 km altitude. Waves perturb the electronic and neutral background densities and temperatures in the region and modify the O(1D) layer intensity as it is captured by ground‐based nightglow instruments. The changes in the integrated volume emission rate are calculated for various vertical wavelengths of the perturbations. We demonstrate that, as the solar activity intensifies, the vertical scales of most likely observable TID waves become larger. For high solar activity, we demonstrate that only waves presenting vertical wavelengths larger than 360 km are likely to be observed. The variation of the range of likely observable vertical wavelengths with the solar cycle offers a plausible explanation for the low occurrence rate of TID in measurements of the redline nightglow during high solar activity periods. We have compared our results with those of Negale et al. (2018;https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JA024876) and Paulino et al (2018;https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-36-265-2018) to verify that observed vertical wavelengths distribute around 140–210 km, in good correspondence with our predicted threshold wavelength160 km for very low solar cycle period. 
    more » « less
  4. ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; (, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)
    Abstract We report on the mountain top observation of three terrestrial gamma‐ray flashes (TGFs) that occurred during the summer storm season of 2021. To our knowledge, these are the first TGFs observed in a mountaintop environment and the first published European TGFs observed from the ground. A gamma‐ray sensitive detector was located at the base of the Säntis Tower in Switzerland and observed three unique TGF events with coincident radio sferic data characteristic of TGFs seen from space. We will show an example of a “slow pulse” radio signature (Cummer et al., 2011,https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048099; Lu et al., 2011,https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JA016141; Pu et al., 2019,https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082743; Pu et al., 2020,https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089427), a −EIP (Lyu et al., 2016,https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070154; Lyu et al., 2021,https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093627; Wada et al., 2020,https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031730), and a double peak TGF associated with an extraordinarily powerful and complicated positive‐polarity sferic, where each TGF peak is possibly preceded by a short burst of stepped leader emission. 
    more » « less
  5. ; ; ; ; ; (, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres)
    Abstract A very high spatial resolution (∼25 m pixel at 90 km altitude) OH airglow imager was installed at the Andes Lidar Observatory on Cerro Pachón, Chile, in February 2016. This instrument was collocated with a Na wind‐temperature lidar. On 1 March 2016, the lidar data showed that the atmosphere was dynamically unstable before 0100 UT and thus conducive to the formation of Kelvin‐Helmholtz instabilities (KHIs). The imager revealed the presence of a KHI and an apparent atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) propagating approximately perpendicular to the plane of primary KHI motions. The AGW appears to have induced modulations of the shear layer leading to misalignments of the emerging KHI billows. These enabled strong KHI billow interactions, as they achieved large amplitudes and a rapid transition to turbulence thereafter. The interactions manifested themselves as vortex tube and knot features that were earlier identified in laboratory studies, as discussed in Thorpe (1987,https://doi.org/10.1029/JC092iC05p05231; 2002,https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.200212858307) and inferred to be widespread in the atmosphere based on features seen in tropospheric clouds but which have never been identified in previous upper atmospheric observations. This study presents the first high‐resolution airglow imaging observation of these KHI interaction dynamics that drive rapid transitions to turbulence and suggest the potential importance of these dynamics in the mesosphere and at other altitudes. A companion paper (Fritts et al., 2020,https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033412) modeling these dynamics confirms that the vortex tubes and knots yield more rapid and significantly enhanced turbulence relative to the internal instabilities of individual KHI billows. 
    more » « less
  • Citation Formats
  • MLA
  • APA
  • Chicago
  • BibTeX
  • Save / Share this Record
  • Send to Email