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Abstract Understanding controls on primary productivity is essential for describing ecosystems and their responses to environmental change. In lakes, pelagic gross primary productivity (GPP) is strongly controlled by inputs of nutrients and dissolved organic matter. Although past studies have developed process models of this nutrient‐color paradigm (NCP), broad empirical tests of these models are scarce. We used data from 58 globally distributed, mostly temperate lakes to test such a model and improve understanding and prediction of the controls on lake primary production. The model includes three state variables–dissolved phosphorus, terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and phytoplankton biomass–and generates realistic predictions for equilibrium rates of pelagic GPP. We calibrated our model using a Bayesian data assimilation technique on a subset of lakes where DOC and total phosphorus (TP) loads were known. We then asked how well the calibrated model performed with a larger set of lakes. Revised parameter estimates from the updated model aligned well with existing literature values. Observed GPP varied nonlinearly with both inflow DOC and TP concentrations in a manner consistent with increasing light limitation as DOC inputs increased and decreasing nutrient limitation as TP inputs increased. Furthermore, across these diverse lake ecosystems, model predictions of GPP were highly correlated with observed values derived from high‐frequency sensor data. The GPP predictions using the updated parameters improved upon previous estimates, expanding the utility of a process model with simplified assumptions for water column mixing. Our analysis provides a model structure that may be broadly useful for understanding current and future patterns in lake primary production.
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Shifting limitation of primary production: experimental support for a new model in lake ecosystems
Abstract The limits on primary production vary in complex ways across space and time. Strong tests of clear conceptual models have been instrumental in understanding these patterns in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Here we present the first experimental test of a new model describing how shifts from nutrient to light limitation control primary productivity in lake ecosystems as hydrological inputs of nutrients and organic matter vary. We found support for two key predictions of the model: that gross primary production (GPP) follows a hump‐shaped relationship with increasing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations; and that the maximum GPP, and the critical DOC concentration at which the hump occurs, are determined by the stoichiometry and chromophoricity of the hydrological inputs. Our results advance fundamental understanding of the limits on aquatic primary production, and have important applications given ongoing anthropogenic alterations of the nutrient and organic matter inputs to surface waters.
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- PAR ID:
- 10452077
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley-Blackwell
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecology Letters
- Volume:
- 23
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 1461-023X
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 1800-1808
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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